World Cup betting odds for North America’s three largest nations have been released. How will USMNT, Canada and Mexico fare in Qatar?
The World Cup starts November 20 in Qatar. It’s the first-ever fall/winter version of soccer’s greatest spectacle.
Mexico and the United States each have several appearances, but it’s only Canada’s second trip to soccer’s biggest stage (1986 was their first appearance).
Which of the three countries figures to advance the furthest? And what are their odds of bringing the trophy back to North America? We take a closer look at all three nations’ squads and how they’ll fare at World Cup 2022.
Updated 2022 World Cup Betting Odds
First, a look at the three North American countries and their odds for specific achievements within the tournament (All odds from FanDuel):
|COUNTRY||ODDS TO WIN FIRST MATCH||ODDS TO ADVANCE OUT OF GROUP||ODDS TO WIN WORLD CUP|
|Canada||+800 (11/23 vs. Belgium)||+270||+25000|
|Mexico||+145 (11/22 vs. Poland)||-120||+9000|
|USA||+145 (11/21 vs. Wales)||-105||+12000|
Since none of these nations are likely to win the World Cup, stage of elimination wagers will be equally intriguing. In this bet, you try to predict the exact stage of the tournament in which the nation will be eliminated.
|COUNTRY||Lose in Group Stage||Lose in Round of 16||Lose in Quarterfinals||Lose in Semifinals|
Canada 2022 World Cup Preview
After a 36-year absence, the representatives from the Great White North are quite happy to be in Qatar. Canada odds to make the World Cup alone were pretty high. But that doesn’t mean they’re content to simply qualify.
Unfortunately, the draw didn’t do them many favors, with European powers Belgium (ranked No. 2 in the world by FIFA) and Croatia not only alongside the Canadians in Group F, but also serving as their opponents in the first two matches.
The Canadians are huge underdogs to Belgium (+800 to win) and heavy underdogs against Croatia (+340). Their third game against Morocco sees Canada a more modest +210 underdog. But it might be too late for them to advance if they can’t score a result (win or tie) in one of the first two matches.
Remember, in soccer there are three outcomes: Home team wins, Away team wins, Draw. For example, the Belgium/Canada fixture appears in World Cup betting odds as such:
- Belgium -350
- Draw +390
- Canada +800
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Heavy on MLS players from CF Montreal, Canada is led by Maxime Crepeau (LAFC) and keeper Dayne St. Clair (Minnesota United). Bayern Munich back Alphonso Davies may be their best-known player from an international perspective.
After finishing first in CONCACAF qualifying, it would be foolish to underestimate the Canadians, but they lack the experience of a world-class squad like Belgium. Or a contender like Croatia, who made the World Cup final four years ago.
Best Bet on Canada at 2022 World Cup:
Who knows what they’ll be playing for by this time but take the Canadians +210 to score a victory against Morocco in their final group game on December 3. Get in there early!
It’s not unreasonable to take Canada to advance past the group stage, but don’t settle for +270 if you like this pick. Instead, take +390 on Canada being eliminated in the Round of 16. Because if they do advance, their first knockout game is likely Germany or Spain – and there’s not much hope of surpassing either squad.
Mexico 2022 World Cup Preview
Mexico’s Group C is a more traditional World Cup grouping, with a heavy favorite (Argentina), a big underdog (Saudi Arabia), and a pair of evenly matched squads who will seemingly battle for the second qualifying spot (El Tri and Poland).
The good news is the Mexicans will know where they stand right away. This is because their first game pits them against Poland and star Robert Lewandowski.
A win means Mexico can be more conservative in game two against the powerful Argentinians while hoping to take care of business against Saudi Arabia.
Lose or draw with Poland and taking at least one point against Argentina becomes pivotal. And that all assumes that Mexico beats Saudi Arabia in the final group game on November 30.
The biggest question: will Raul Jimenez be available for Mexico? The striker plays for Wolverhampton of the Premier League but has been out since August with a groin injury.
It’s believed Jimenez will play, but groin injuries are notorious for sapping players of endurance and quality. With Jimenez less than full strength, Mexico may lack the depth to overcome not only Argentina at the top of Group C, but Poland as well.
Best Bet on Mexico at 2022 World Cup:
Many believe if you contain Lewandowski, you contain Poland. In the interest of doing so, Mexico may play a conservative style in the first game with a compromised Jimenez. The draw is +200, and worth more than a look in an even matchup.
Mexico has qualified for the knockout round at the last eight World Cups. Hard to go against a streak like that. With that in mind, the Mexican soccer odds are pretty decent. They’re -120 to qualify for the knockout round but taking the quarterfinals as their “Stage of Elimination” is +700.
With defending world champions France as their likely opponent in the Round of 16, making the quarters is indeed a stretch. But France isn’t the same team as in 2018. And at +700, you can easily hedge this wager if the matchup with France comes to fruition.
USA 2022 World Cup Preview
Back in the World Cup after missing out in 2018, the United States find themselves in a group that is sure to intrigue plenty of fans around the country.
After opening with a plucky Wales squad, the Americans will take on England on Black Friday in the States before ending the group stage with a matchup against Iran.
Experts have the English as overpowering favorites (-1100) to advance from the group, with opinions evenly split on whether the Americans or Welsh will take the second spot. The Iranians are seen as one of the weaker teams in this year’s field.
The story for this 2022 squad is a deeper, talented roster filled with youngsters. Their disadvantage? Due to their lack of experience and various injuries, the team has barely played together as a cohesive unit, which could hurt them early in this tournament.
21-year-old Jesus Ferreira could be a key, as he represents the U.S. best chance to secure a reliable striker for the World Cup.
If the U.S.-Wales matchup is as even as the odds suggest, the Welsh would seemingly have the advantage as they play Iran first while the Americans have to tangle with England.
So we can foresee a scenario where the Americans head to the final day of group play needing three points against Iran while hoping England defeats Wales. But will England need to win that game?
In summary, everything seems to hinge on the first game for the Americans. They’re underdogs in game two, favorites in game three – but the result against Wales is likely to determine if they can make the knockout round for their third consecutive World Cup (they qualified in 2010 and 2014 before missing the tournament in 2018).
Best Bet on USA at 2022 World Cup:
The game with Wales really is a tossup, and with both teams knowing its importance to their chances of advancing, a conservative approach seems likely. There’s little value on the under 2.5 goals at -186, so let’s look to exact scores.
USA as an exact score is +600, while 1-0 Wales gets you +700. A scoreless draw is also listed at +600.
Do we dare to dream of a Black Friday miracle? Let’s look at this step by step:
Say the Americans get past Wales in game one, then carry that momentum to a draw (+260) or an improbable win (+400) against England. This gives them a path to win Group B, setting up a likely Round of 16 matchup with a team from Group A – believed by many to be the 2022 World Cup’s weakest.
Unfortunately, this likely sets up a quarterfinal with one of Argentina or France – the point at which we can’t see the Americans progressing no matter how hard we try. But if you can foresee a result (win or draw) with England, you could do a lot worse than +750 for the U.S. to lose in the quarterfinals.
And if you want to get crazy with that potential quarterfinal matchup? A loss in the semifinals is +2400!