Who Deserves to Be NFL MVP for the 2023-2024 Season?

As the Super Bowl approaches, we take one more look at NFL MVP voting for 2023-2024. The top 5 candidates have been selected.

Voting for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is wrapping up, with the winner set to be announced at the NFL Honors on February 8 in Las Vegas – three nights before Super Bowl LVIII.

So who’s your pick? Here’s a look at the players we see as the top five candidates for NFL MVP this season.

#5 Jared Goff, Quarterback, Detroit Lions

Jared Goff MVP Odds

It’s pretty incredible to think that Goff was considered by some as a bust just three years ago when he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford.

But we’ve all gotten predictions and “hot takes” wrong. Instead, let’s look at how Jared Goff let the naysayers know in 2023:

  • Led the Lions to their first division title in 30 seasons
  • So far, quarterbacked Detroit to two playoff wins – twice the number the franchise has had since 1957
  • Defeated Stafford head-to-head in an opening round wild-card game for Detroit’s first playoff win in 32 years
  • Finished second in the NFL is passing yards (4,575 yards, just 49 yards behind Tua Tagovailoa), second in passing attempts (605, just seven attempts behind Sam Howell), fourth in passing touchdowns (30), and seventh in completion percentage (67.2%)

It’s too early to tell if the Lions’ Cinderella story will continue past this week in San Francisco, but you can’t tell the story of Detroit’s remarkable turnaround without mentioning the remarkable comeback by Goff.

So does that make him an MVP?

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#4 Christian McCaffrey, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers

Christian Mccaffrey MVP

The NFL’s MVP award has been a quarterback award for the past decade. Could McCaffrey become the first non-quarterback to win since Adrian Peterson in 2012?

Here’s his case:

  • Easily led NFL in rushing with 1,459 yards (second place was Derrick Henry with 1,167.)
  • Tied with Miami’s Raheem Mostert for the league lead with 21 total touchdowns (14 rushing, 7 receiving scores for McCaffrey)
  • Third in receptions (67) among NFL running backs behind NY Jets’ Breece Hall and New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara
  • Played in 16 games, missing only the final regular-season game when the 49ers had clinched homefield advantage
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McCaffrey scored at least one touchdown in 13 of the 16 San Francisco games he played, and the team was rewarded with homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Will it be enough? Ironically, McCaffrey’s biggest obstacle might be overcoming his own teammate.

#3 Brock Purdy, Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy MVP Odds

This will read similar to the argument to Goff, with one key difference – Purdy’s ALWAYS been the underdog.

Unlike Goff, a No. 1 draft pick out of the University of California in 2016, Purdy was the NFL’s “Mr. Irrelevant” in 2022 – the very last player drafted that year. Of course, by the end of the season he was starting for San Francisco. A feel-good story that came crashing down in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia when the Niners lost and Purdy injured his elbow, requiring offseason surgery.

After a summer of questions whether he was really the man for the job, here’s how the second-year starter bounced back in 2023:

  • Finished fifth in passing yards (4,280), third in passing touchdowns (31), and second in completion percentage among QBs with at least 300 attempts (69.4%)
  • Returned to the scene of the NFC championship game and thrashed the Eagles, passing for 314 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 49ers victory
  • Put up the league’s most accurate outing for a QB in 2023, completing 20 of 21 passes in a win over Arizona on October 1st

Can Purdy go from Mr. Irrelevant to MVP? He’ll have to fend off a couple of highly pedigreed competitors.

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#2 Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Most Valuable Player odds

Mahomes is no stranger to this conversation, having won NFL MVP in 2018 and 2022.

This season, by Mahomes’ standards, was a bit of a drop-off statistically. Here are some numbers:

  • Finished sixth in passing yards (4,183), eighth in TD passes (27) and completion percentage (67.2%)
  • Avoided sacks at the second-best rate in the NFL (4.3%) behind only Buffalo’s Josh Allen
  • Led Kansas City to a eighth consecutive AFC West title, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind only the Patriots’ 10 consecutive division titles (2009-2018)

Mahomes stood apart this year due to his unselfishness. He reached a career high in rushing attempts (75) and yards (389) as Kansas City’s running game took center stage at times due to a struggling pass-catching corps.

As the AFC playoffs have shown so far, Mahomes can still sling it when he has to, and even if the numbers aren’t at their usual levels, it’s hard to argue that any player is more important to his team.

#1 Lamar Jackson, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Most Valuable Player Odds

Except for this player.

Maybe the on-field question can be settled this coming Sunday in the AFC Championship Game, but the best case for the 2023-2024 NFL Most Valuable Player belongs to the Baltimore Ravens quarterback who also claimed the award in 2019.

The passing stats themselves won’t stand out, as Jackson finished the season with 3,678 passing yards (15th in the NFL), 24 touchdown passes (tied for 11th), and 67.2% completion (tied with Mahomes for 8th place).

So where does Lamar separate from the pack for NFL MVP?

Avoiding Mistakes

In 457 pass attempts, Jackson threw just seven interceptions – a miniscule 1.5% of his passes.

Versatility

Jackson adds another dimension that most other quarterbacks simply can’t approach in the running game. This season, he carried for 821 yards, five touchdowns, and a league-leading 5.5 yards per carry.

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Big Games

Jackson finished the regular season with back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Miami, where he easily outdueled both Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa.

In the two games combined, Jackson completed 73% of his passes for 573 yards, seven touchdowns and not a single interception. Most importantly, the Ravens won both contests convincingly.

Team Performance

The Ravens were 13-3 when Jackson started, the best regular season record in the NFL.

Sure, the MVP is about numbers, but they’re also about team performance. As the quarterback for the league’s best team, Jackson stands above the field this season.

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NFL MVP Odds

Here are the latest odds for the NFL’s 2023-2024 MVP Award:

PLAYER, TEAMODDS
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens-20000
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers+3500
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers+4000
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs+30000
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions+50000

Prediction For NFL MVP 2023-2024

The odds tell the story on this one.

It’s going to be a pretty big surprise if Lamar Jackson doesn’t win the award for the second time in his career. His -20000 odds require a bettor to risk $20,000 if he wants to win $100 on the Baltimore QB. Not a particularly valuable wager.

From a prediction standpoint, I’ll say that Jackson will not win as easily as he did in 2019, when he became only the second player to win the award unanimously. I think McCaffrey’s performance was strong enough to steal at least one first-place vote, so I’ll take him as my second-place finisher, followed by Purdy, Mahomes, and Goff.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen also stand a chance of finishing in the top five.

When Will The NFL MVP Be Announced For 2023-2024?

The award will be presented at the NFL Honors on Thursday, February 8 in Las Vegas, along with Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and other outstanding achievements.

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