ABE Week 4 Picks Competition winner Josh Widman shares his 5 best bets for Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: SEA ML -275 (FOXBET)
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is 6-31 against teams with a winning record in his career. He is also 18-28-2 on the road. The Seahawks are 4-0 and the game is in Seattle. QB Russell Wilson, with his 16 TD passes, leads the second-highest scoring offense against a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense and 29th in total defense. Seattle is going to score a ton of points and the defense will get enough stops.
LA Rams @ Washington Football Team
Pick: Under 47 (FOXBET)
Washington will start QB Kyle Allen over Dwayne Haskins after losing three in a row. Allen is 6-9 in his career but was playing alongside RB Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. He has no such weapon, or anything close, in the nation’s capital. No matter who plays QB, that person is going to have to deal with a leaky offensive line and a lack of weapons. Washington has averaged just 17 points per game during its current three-game losing streak. For the Rams, their defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in three of four games this season. The Rams offense has also been a bit inconsistent. The winless Giants traveled across the country and held the Rams offense in check. Washington’s defensive line is better than New York’s even if DE
Chase Young doesn’t play and the rest of its defense is on par with New York’s. This number doesn’t mean the offenses have to be dormant and I’m not expecting a shootout either.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Pick: ARI -7 (FOXBET)
Yes, the Cardinals have lost two in a row. Luckily for them, the New York Jets show up on the schedule. The same Jets that allowed 37 points to a Broncos team led by a QB making his first NFL start last week. Arizona doesn’t even have to be at its best for this bet to cash. All the Cardinals have to do is win by two possessions. The Jets rank 30th in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense per game. Essentially, the Jets will struggle to stop the Cardinals as well as score on them. QB Joe Flacco is going to start for New York due to Sam Darnold’s shoulder injury. Flacco isn’t nearly as mobile as Darnold so the former Super Bowl MVP could be spending significant time on the ground this Sunday. This is a fantastic opportunity for the Cardinals to get back on track and they’ll take advantage.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: PIT ML -333 (FOXBET)
Pittsburgh has an elite defense that consists of an unrelenting pass rush and a stout secondary. They also have Future-Hall-of-Fame QB Ben Roethlisberger leading the offense. Philadelphia’s offensive line is shaky at-best and the Eagles aren’t exactly littered with talented playmakers on offense either. QB Carson Wentz is going to be under pressure all game long and faces a much tougher test than last week’s injury-riddled San Francisco defense. Even if the Steelers offense doesn’t light it up, they’ll score enough to outlast the Eagles.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: CAR +2.5 (FOXBET)
Carolina is 2-2 after back-to-back wins without star RB Christian McCaffrey. Even in their two losses, they’ve been very competitive. A defense that ranked near the bottom in every statistic in 2019 has improved significantly through four games. QB Teddy Bridgewater has done enough to put Carolina in a position to win the game.
Atlanta, on the other hand, isn’t stopping anybody. The Falcons have allowed 30 or more points in every game so far. WR Julio Jones has been limited since a spectacular week one performance. WR Calvin Ridley has also been banged up and even failed to catch a single pass against the Packers. If these two aren’t at full strength or don’t play, the Falcons offense is in trouble and Atlanta needs its offense to remain competitive. I think Carolina capitalizes on Atlanta’s defensive deficiencies and keeps it really close. The Panthers can win this game outright but taking them +2.5 prevents the heartbreak of a late FG giving Atlanta a one or two-point win and handing you a loss.