Week 4 NFL Betting Picks: The Best Bets from Sunday’s Slate

James Williamson shares his best bets from Sunday’s NFL slate

LA Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Chargers (+260 ML on FanDuel)

The young, upstart Chargers and rookie QB, Justin Herbert make their to Tampa Bay to face the GOAT, Tom Brady, and the Buccaneers. Brady has an impressive career record against young QBs, but that was in New England. I’m still not sold on Tampa Bay’s offense and a lot of that has to do with Brady. Considering the Bus will be without Pro Bowl WR, Chris Godwin, and Pro Bowl RB, Leonard Fournette, Tampa’s offense could struggle against the talented Chargers’ defense.

Of course, the same could be said of Herbert going against a Bucs defense that has quietly been one of the best in football. Herbert has looked impressive in his first two starts, specifically against the Chiefs, and I expect that to continue against the Bucs. I’m taking the Chargers to win as the Tampa offense has a slow day.

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears

Pick: Bears (+122 ML on FanDuel)

It’s not often you see an undefeated team bench their starting QB, but that’s exactly what they did in their come-from-behind victory over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. Former-Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foles, is now starting under center for the Bears and their passing offense is better for it.

They’ll face the Colts this week, who’s revamped secondary has been very stingy to start the season. Foles will have his work cut out for him, but Colts’ QB, Philip Rivers may have it worse. Rivers hasn’t looked great this year since signing with Indy in the offseason and a matchup against the Bears’ defense won’t help him get right. I’m taking the Bears in this one as I expect Foles to outplay Rivers.

Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans

Pick: Vikings (+198 ML on FanDuel)

The Minnesota Vikings head to Houston to face the Texans in a matchup between winless teams who both won a playoff game last year. Both of these teams are better than their winless records suggest, but how much better is definitely up for debate. Both teams held big first half leads last week before second half implosions kept them winless for another week. The Vikings lost to the Tennessee Titans in a heartbreaker, but big says from star RB, Dalvin Cook, and rookie first-round WR, Justin Jefferson, should give hope for the future.

The Texans on the other hand lost a winnable game to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week thanks to a scoreless second half. Their offense looks like it relies too heavily on QB, Dashon Watson, making plays, while their defense is allowing the tenth-most yards per game in football. The Vikings aren’t much better, allowing the third-most yards per game in the league though. Dashon Watson could be in store for a huge day against a porous Minnesota defense, but I’m expecting the Vikings offense to play better as a whole. I’m taking the Vikings to win as Dalvin Cook and the rest of their offense have a day.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Jaguars (+138 ML on FanDuel)

The 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals fresh off their tie against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bengals look like the more talented team thanks in large part to the first overall pick in the draft, QB, Joe Burrow, and their stable of skill position players. The Jaguars on the other hand just got dismantled by a winless Miami Dolphins team on Thursday Night Football. Jags’ QB, Gardner Minshew, struggled heavily in the loss, but the Bengals defense shouldn’t pose much of a threat.

The real question in this game is, how clean can the Bengals’ offensive line keep Burrow. The QB was sacked eight times by an underwhelming Eagles pass rush last week and that will likely be a theme for the remaineder of the season. The Jags pass rush has been very quiet this year, with only three sacks on the season, but young pass rushers, like Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson, could be a lot of the Bengals line to handle. I’m taking the Jaguars in a game that could have them looking like Sacksonville again, but only for a week.

Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Raiders (+136 ML on FanDuel)

The undefeated Bills, coming off a huge win over the LA Rams, travel out west to face the Las Vegas Raiders. This match-up has underrated game of the week potential. The Bills look like one of the most complete teams, with a stout defense on paper and an offense that looks capable of going shot for shot with the best of them. This doesn’t look like your typical Buffalo Bills team. The Raiders on the other hand may be one of the most underrated teams in football. They’re coming off a bad loss to the New England Patriots thanks to their ability to completely eliminate star tight end, Darren Waller, from the Raiders game plan.

Las Vegas has one of the best offensive lines in football, as well as a defense better than most might expect. The Bills are best at taking away the deep passing game, but Raiders’ QB, Derek Carr, is famous for his short passing chops. The Bills have some talented linebackers, but I question how well they’ll be able to cover Warren. If the Raiders can create space and work the middle of the field, while limiting the Bills’ big plays on offense, they should be able to get the win.

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