Tyler Monahan takes a look at this week’s UFC Fight Night card and shares his best bets, including a pick for Edgar vs. Munhoz.
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After an all-time war last weekend between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier the UFC returns with another night of great fights. UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Munhoz doesn’t boast the sexiest names in the fight game but there is some quality competition going up against each other looking to improve their standing in the company. With the original co-main event of Yoel Romero vs Uriah Hall now off due to injury all of the other fights have a bit more pressure to live up to expectations in order to make this card outstanding.
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All odds are from FoxBet Sportsbook.
UFC Record: 10-5
Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson
Mariya Agapova comes into this fight as a giant favorite against Shana Dobson and it makes sense. She is equally dangerous on her feet (3 knockouts) and on the ground (4 submissions) and usually makes quick work of her opponents with six of her eight wins coming in the first round.
Shana Dobson is coming off of three straight losses and stands at 3-4 overall, her recent track record doesn’t inspire much confidence and then when you watch her and see how much punishment she takes it becomes even more obvious why Agapova is such a heavy favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight doesn’t make it past the first round.
Pick: Either fighter by KO, TKO or Disqualification (+110)
Ovince St. Preux vs Alonzo Menifield
This fight wasn’t even supposed to happen and yet on a very weird card here we are. Ovince St. Preux was supposed to go up against Shamil Gamzatov but because of travel restrictions due to the coronavirus Gamzatov was not able to leave his home country of Russia. Alonzo Menifield stepped up and took his spot in what is sure to be an entertaining co-main event.
St. Preux is a long time veteran whose career has slowed down in recent years, he has gone 1-3 in his last four fights. What is surprising about these losses isn’t the fact he lost, but because he is so deep into his fighting career you would expect him to start getting knocked out more often due to the weakening of the jaw over time, and yet that is not happening.
St. Preux can still take a punch which makes this bout interesting because Menifield loves to go one hundred miles an hour from the first bell. He has some heavy fists but he tires out quickly, if St. Preux can weather the early storm I like his odds considering he is a much stronger fighter on the ground than Menifield.
Pick: Ovince St. Preux moneyline +100
Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz
In the main event of UFC Fight Night Frankie Edgar faces off against Pedro Munhoz. These two fighters couldn’t be in much more different spots in their careers, Edgar is holding on to any semblance of relevance while Munhoz looks poised to take his career to the next level soon.
Frankie Edgar is now in his thirteenth year fighting in the UFC, his career has tailed off in the last few years but he is hoping a move to the bantamweight division could help him get back on track. Earlier in his career Edgar was able to withstand heavy punches but that has slowly changed over the years starting in 2018 in his fight against Brian Ortega which resulted in his first ever loss by knockout. Since then he’s lost one other fight by knockout and overall just doesn’t seem able to take the beating he used to that brings him later into fights.
Pedro Munhoz isn’t exactly a knockout artist but he can pack a punch and can quickly transition from his stand up game to the ground where he is lethal. Half of his 18 career wins have come the way of submission. This could be Frankie Edgar’s last chance to make a run at UFC gold before a potential retirement, but I don’t see him lasting against a game fighter in Munhoz who is as strong on his feet as he is on the ground.
Pick: Pedro Munhoz to win in Rounds 1-5 -133 (Bet Boost)