Today’s MLB Prop Picks UPDATED: Friday’s Best Baseball Bets

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Kevin Davis
Kevin Davis is an NYC-based sports bettor who travels to New Jersey to lay his legal sports bets. He is a former elected official, who is also a fourth-generation sports handicapper. As a sports handicapper Davis focuses on international baseball, MLB, NBA, College Football, and Canadian Football. Davis is an analytical sports bettor who builds his own mathematical models for betting on sports. He is a profitable sports bettor who enjoys sharing his insights with aspiring sports handicappers.

Professor Props aka MLB betting expert Kevin Davis provides his best pitcher prop bets from the day’s Major League Baseball slate.

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Brad Keller having over 4.5 strikeouts at -120 odds, and Rick Porcello having over 3.5 strikeouts at -165 odds.

MLB Record: 48-22, +16.24 Units, 23.2% ROI

Friday, September 25th 

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Brad Keller (KCR) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Royals starting pitcher Brad Keller is quietly having a great season. While he plays for a team that is one of the worst in baseball, Keller has a 4-3 record with a 2.77 ERA. Most importantly, Keller averages 6.08 innings per start which is an impressive feat in a season where most starting pitchers last for fewer than five innings. With Keller likely to pitch many innings against the struggling Tigers, I think he will pitch long enough to get at least five strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Keller having over 4.5 strikeouts at -120 odds.

One worry I have about Keller is that he is not a power pitcher. Currently Keller is averaging only 5.55 strikeouts per nine innings. While Keller is not great at striking batters out, He has been pitching for even more innings lately and I think he will pitch for more innings tonight than he has been averaging during this season. In addition to Keller pitching more innings recently, he also has the advantage of going against a Detroit Tigers lineup that averages 9.76 strikeouts per game which is the 3rd most in the league. Against a strikeout prone lineup, I think Keller will easily have at least five strikeouts in tonight’s game.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Pick: Rick Porcello (NYM) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)

Rick Porcello is having a terrible season. Porcello has a 1-6 record, and a 5.46 ERA. However, Porcello has much going for him that will get him at least four strikeouts in tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals. In his last two starts Porcello has 15 strikeouts in 13 innings of action. Porcello is pitching for more innings recently and he is decent at striking batters out. For the season Porcello is averaging 8.20 strikeouts per nine innings. The general rule for Porcello this season is that if Porcello pitches for five innings than he will have four or more strikeouts. That is why I like Porcello to have over 3.5 strikeouts tonight at -165 odds.

While I like Porcello’s chances tonight, he will have some difficulty against the Nationals lineup. While the Nationals lineup is close to the league average in runs scored per game, they average the second fewest strikeouts per game in the league. Even though the Nationals average only 7.44 strikeouts per game, I think Porcello will get enough strikeouts against them. That in addition to Porcello’s recent increase in usage will push Porcello over the top in getting four or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting that Porcello will have over 3.5 strikeouts at -165 odds.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $92

$50 Porcello Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $80.50

Thursday, September 24th 

MLB Record: 46-22, +14.80 Units, 21.8% ROI

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Kris Bubic having over 4.5 strikeouts at -130 odds, and Cristian Javier having over 4.5 strikeouts at -150 odds.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Kris Bubic (KCR) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic is not exactly a household name. As a rookie starting pitcher on one of the worst teams in baseball, it is easy for Bubic to go unnoticed. Bubic currently has a 1-6 record, with a 3.97 ERA. Most importantly, Bubic averages 8.74 strikeouts per nine innings. As a rule, if Bubic pitches at least five innings he will have at least five strikeouts. While Bubic is averaging around five innings per start, recently he has been getting more usage. It is for this reason why I am betting on Bubic to have over 4.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.

Recently Bubic has been striking out more batters than he was at the beginning of the season. Over Bubic’s last four starts, Bubic is averaging 9.93 strikeouts per nine innings. In addition to Bubic striking out more batters recently, he also has the advantage of going against a Detroit Tigers lineup that averages 9.78 strikeouts per game which is the 3rd most in the league. Against a strikeout prone lineup, I think Bubic will easily have at least five strikeouts in tonight’s game.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Pick: Cristian Javier (HOU) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Christian Javier of the Houston Astros is quietly having a great rookie season. Javier has a 4-2 record, with a 3.33 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 8.88 strikeouts per nine innings. The reason why Javier’s strikeout total is set so low at only 4.5 strikeouts is because he does not typically pitch for many innings. I believe he will pitch for more innings than usual against a weak Texas Rangers lineup and that Is why I am betting that he will have over 4.5 strikeouts at -150 odds.

Javier is going to have a feast against the Rangers in tonight’s game. The Rangers stadium is one of the best pitcher parks and if Javier isn’t giving up many runs the Astros will keep him on the mound. Additionally, the Rangers lineup averages the second fewest runs per game in the league with an average of 3.59 runs per game. When you combine those two factors with the fact that the Rangers lineup averages over nine strikeouts per game, I have a hard time imagining how Javier does not end the game with less than 4.5 strikeouts.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $88.46

$50 Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $83.33

Wednesday, September 23rd 

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Nick Margevicius having over 2.5 strikeouts at -175 odds, and Casey Mize having over 3.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.

MLB Record: 44-22, +13.46 Units, 20.4% ROI

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Nick Margevicius (SEA) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-175)

Nick Margevicius is a pitcher who has more syllables in his last name than his strikeout total for today’s game. In his last start I bet on Margevicius having over 3.5 strikeouts and I narrowly lost that bet as he had only three strikeouts despite pitching for five innings. Even though Margevicius is a relatively mediocre pitcher this season with a 1-3 record and a 5.35 ERA, it is shocking that his strikeout total is set at only 2.5 strikeouts. Of all the strikeout props that are offered this year, 2.5 is lowest that I have seen for any strikeout total and it only is usually only offered once a week. Almost always I will take the over when the strikeout total is set at only 2.5 strikeouts, but for Margevicius it is an even better bet than usual. Margevicius averages 8.15 strikeouts per nine innings which is not terribly bad, and he averages 5.05 innings per start. Even at the steep price of -175, betting on Margevicius to have over 2.5 strikeouts is a no-brainer.

My only worry for Margevicious is that he faces trouble against a Houston lineup that averages the fewest strikeouts per game in the league at only 7.33 strikeouts per nine innings. If Margevicious were to pitch for only four innings, then I do not think he gets three or more strikeouts. However, I think because Margevicius averages over five innings per start, I think Margevicious will pitch for a long enough time to get three or more strikeouts. Margevicius is not particularly bad at striking batters out and 2.5 strikeouts is a low strikeout total for virtually any pitcher. Even against the Houston Astros, Margevicius is likely to have at least three strikeouts.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Casey Mize (DET) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Casey Mize has been a disappointment this season for the Detroit Tigers. As the 2018 number one overall pick, Mize was expected to contribute to the Tigers right away despite being a 23-year old rookie. Despite the hype, Mize has an 0-2 record with a 6.08 ERA in six starts. However, what has gone unnoticed is that Mize has a knack for striking out batters as he averages 8.37 strikeouts per nine innings. The reason why Mize’s strikeout total is set so low despite his strikeout rate is because he is averaging only 3.94 innings per start. While Mize does not pitch for many innings per start, recently he has seen more action. I believe that he will pitch for around five innings in tonight’s game and that is why he will have over 3.5 strikeouts.

Opposing Casey Mize and the Detroit Tigers are the Minnesota Twins. The Twins lineup averages 8.71 strikeouts per game which is close to the league average. Additionally, their lineup averages 4.46 runs per game which is also close to the league average. While the Twins are large favorites for tonight’s game it is not because of their lineup. I think Mize can do well against their relatively unremarkable lineup. That is why I am backing Casey Mize to have over 3.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Margevicius Over 2.5 Strikeouts Pays $78.57

$50 Mize Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $88.46

Tuesday, September 22nd 

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Gerrit Cole having under 9.5 strikeouts at -125 odds, and Caleb Smith having under 4.5 strikeouts at +120 odds.

MLB Record: 42-22, +11.46 Units, 17.9% ROI

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Pick 1: Gerrit Cole (NYY) Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Gerrit Cole is having another great season proving that the Yankees made the right decision signing him this offseason. In ten starts, Cole has a 6-3 record with a 3.00 ERA. Most importantly, Cole has a strikeout rate of 11.86 strikeouts per nine innings. With Cole being a great pitcher, the obvious bet is to make is on Cole having over 9.5 strikeouts. However, the strikeout total at 9.5 strikeouts is set too high. Last time Cole pitched I took the under on his strikeout total for this reason and he pitched seven innings striking out only eight batters. While Cole is certainly capable of having a ten-strikeout game, he is not likely to have one. That is why I am betting that Gerrit Cole has under 9.5 strikeouts at -125 odds.

One reason why Cole will not get ten or more strikeouts is that he is only averaging six innings per start. If Cole gets his typical workload of six innings, he will have to throw 24.5% more strikeouts than usual to go over his strikeout total. Against a Blue Jays lineup that is averaging only 8.43 strikeouts per game, I do not think the Cole has a better game than usual. Additionally, Cole has thrown ten or more strikeouts in only three of his eleven starts this season. While Cole is a great pitcher, he is not likely to have more than 9.5 strikeouts tonight.

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick 2: Caleb Smith (ARI) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Starting pitcher Caleb Smith of the Arizona Diamondbacks has not seen much action this season. In only three starts this season, there is not much of a sample size to set an accurate strikeout total for Smith. For starting pitchers who have made at least eight starts, the oddsmakers and betting public can accurately predict how many innings that they will last. For Caleb Smith, his strikeouts total is set too high because there is an assumption that he will pitch for at least five innings.

In Smith’s three starts this season, Smith pitched for only two to three innings. While Smith is good at striking batters out, if he pitches for less than five innings than he will have fewer than 4.5 strikeouts. I believe that Smith will pitch fewer than five innings in tonight’s start, and that is why I am betting that he has under 4.5 strikeouts at +120 odds.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Cole Under 9.5 Strikeouts Pays $90

$50 Smith Under 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $110

Monday, September 21st 

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Kyle Gibson (TEX) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Kyle Gibson has been a disappointment for the Texas Rangers this season. In ten starts, Gibson has a 2-5 record with a 5.18 ERA, and a strikeout rate of only 7.85 strikeouts per nine innings. While Gibson has had a lackluster year, what makes him great for taking the over on strikeout prop bets is that he averages 5.71 innings per start. Even though Gibson is likely to give the Rangers a poor performance every time he pitches, they still use him for many innings. Based on Gibson being likely to pitch many innings, I am betting that he has over 3.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

My only worry about betting on Gibson for today’s game is that he faces a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is hard to strikeout. Of all thirty MLB teams, the Angels lineup averages the 7th fewest strikeouts per game with an average of only 8.02 strikeouts per game. Additionally, the Angels lineup ranks in the top third in the league in runs scored per game with an average of 4.93 runs scored per game. However, even against a good lineup I think Gibson has at least four strikeouts. That is why I am betting that Kyle Gibson has over 3.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Luis Castillo (CIN) Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-120)

Tonight’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers could end up deciding which of those two teams make the playoffs. Both teams are tied in the standings and it is the last week of the regular season. With tonight’s game being pivotal I believe both teams leave their starters in the game for longer than usual. In a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings, Luis Castillo is a dying breed. In ten starts this season, Castillo is averaging 5.91 innings per start. With Castillo I see him either giving up several runs and being pulled from the game or pitching so many innings that it is inevitable that he gives up at least two earned runs. That is why I am betting that Luis Castillo will have over 1.5 earned runs at -120 odds.

Luis Castillo currently has an ERA of only 3.03. While that is a low era, it still means that if Castillo pitches six innings, he is likely to give up two earned runs. The Brewers lineup average only 4.40 runs per game which is slightly below the league average. However, giving up less than 1.5 earned runs is such a hard feat for any pitcher that I think Castillo giving up over 1.5 earned runs is a great bet. That is why I am betting on Castilo giving up over 1.5 earned runs.

Monday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Gibson Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

$50 Castillo Over 1.5 Earned Runs Pays $91.66

Friday, September 18th

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Zach Plesac (CLE) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Zack Plesac is quietly one of the best pitchers this year for the Cleveland Indians. In six starts, Plesac has a 3-2 record with a 2.20 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 8.56 strikeouts per nine innings. Most importantly Plesac averages an astonishing 6.83 innings per start. With Plesac being decent at striking out batters and likely to last many innings, I think he easily gets at least six strikeouts. That is why I am betting that Plesac has over 5.5 strikeouts at -150 odds.

While I would be likely to take the over on Plesac’s strikeout total against virtually any other team, it makes even more sense to take it against the Detroit Tigers. Of all thirty MLB teams, the Tigers lineup averages the 2nd most strikeouts per game with an average of 9.69 strikeouts per game. Additionally, the Tigers lineup ranks in the bottom third in the league in runs scored per game. Against a strikeout prone lineup that has trouble scoring, I think Plesac pitches many innings and has many strikeouts. That is why betting on him to have over 5.5 strikeouts is a great bet to make.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Kyle Hendricks (CHC) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

In a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. Kyle Hendricks is a dying breed. In ten starts this season, Hendricks is averaging 6.52 innings per start. If Hendricks can last more than five innings against the Twins, he will have five or more strikeouts. Hendricks does not have a reputation as a power pitcher, as he is averaging only 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings. The reason why Hendricks goes over his strikeout total is because he will be on the mound for such a large time, that is it hard to imagine that he will not get at least five strikeouts. In Hendricks last two starts, he pitched for around eight innings in each start. That is why I think betting on Hendricks having over 4.5 strikeouts is a no-brainer.

I do not think Hendricks will have any trouble against the Twins lineup. The Twins average only 4.48 runs per game which is slightly below the league average. Additionally, the Twins lineup averages 8.52 strikeouts per game which is slightly better than the league average. I think the Hendricks will be able to handle the Twins lineup well enough to pitch enough innings for him to get five or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Hendricks having over 4.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Plesac Over 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $83.33

$50 Hendricks Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Nick Margevicius having over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 odds, and Dakota Hudson having over 8.5 strikeouts at -175 odds.

MLB Record: 39-19, +12.46 Units, 21.5% ROI

Thursday, September 17th

San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Nick Margevicius (SEA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Nick Margevicius is a pitcher who has more syllables in his last name than his strikeout total for today’s game. Last year in his rookie season with the San Diego Padres, Margevicius was terrible. This year for the Seattle Mariners, Margevicius has improved from terrible to mediocre as he has a 1-3 record with a 5.34 ERA. For today’s game against the San Francisco Giants, I think Margevicius could do well. Even if Margevicious does not do well, I still think he gets at least four strikeouts against a Giants team that he got six strikeouts against last week. I think Margevicius goes over his strikeout total of only 3.5 strikeouts because he will pitch between five and six innings and he is good at striking batters out. Over his last four starts, Margevicius is averaging 5.5 innings per start, and 8.59 strikeouts per nine innings. I think Margevicious continues pitching that well and that is why I am betting that he has over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

My only worry for Margevicious is that he faces trouble against a Giants lineup that averages only 8.29 strikeouts per nine innings. If Margevicious were to pitch for only four innings, then I do not think he gets four or more strikeouts. However, I think because the Mariners having been relying on him for almost six innings per start recently, I think Margevicious will pitch for a long enough time to get four or more strikeouts. Even in Margevicious last start, which was against the Giants, the Mariners kept him in for 4.2 innings despite giving up seven earned runs. That is why I am betting on Margevicious having over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Dakota Hudson (STL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-175)

Typically, a pitcher strikeout total set at only 3.5 strikeouts is a low amount. The reason why Dakota Hudson’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5 strikeouts is probably because he does not pitch for many innings. Currently Hudson is averaging 5.29 innings per start which is only slightly higher than the league average. However, in Hudson’s last four starts he is averaging six innings per start. Hudson is currently averaging 7.54 strikeouts per nine innings, so if Hudson gets enough innings, I think that he has at least four strikeouts in today’s game. I think Hudson pitches between five to six innings in today’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and that is why I am betting on him having over 3.5 strikeouts at -175 juice.

One strength that Hudson has in today’s game is that he will not have trouble with the opposing Pirates lineup. The Pirates lineup averages 8.79 strikeouts per game, but more importantly they are last in the major leagues in runs per game with an average of only 3.60 runs per game. With a team that cannot score, I think it is likely that the Cardinals keep Hudson in the game for long enough to get at least four or five strikeouts. That is why I am betting that Dakota Hudson will have over 3.5 strikeouts at -175 odds.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Margevicius Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $105

$50 Hudson Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $79

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Gerrit Cole having under 9.5 strikeouts at -130 odds, and Lucas Giolito having under 8.5 strikeouts at -150 odds.

MLB Record: 37-19, +11.02 Units, 19.7% ROI

Wednesday, September 16th

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Pick: Gerrit Cole (NYY) Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Gerrit Cole is having another great season proving that the Yankees made the right decision signing him this offseason. In ten starts, Cole has a 5-3 record with a 3.20 ERA, and a 3.43 xFIP. Most importantly, Cole has a strikeout rate of 12.05 strikeouts per nine innings. With Cole being a great pitcher, the obvious bet is to make is on Cole having over 9.5 strikeouts. However, the strikeout total at 9.5 strikeouts is set too high. While Cole is certainly capable of having a ten-strikeout game, he is not likely to have one. That is why I am betting that Gerrit Cole has under 9.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.

One reason why Cole will not get ten or more strikeouts is that he is only averaging 5.9 innings per start. If Cole gets his typical workload of around six innings, he will have to throw 24.5% more strikeouts than usual to go over his strikeout total. Against a Blue Jays lineup that is averaging only 8.36 strikeouts per game, I do not think the Cole has a better game than usual. Additionally, in Cole has thrown ten or more strikeouts in only three of his ten starts this season. While Cole is a great pitcher, he is not likely to have more than 9.5 strikeouts tonight.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Pick: Lucas Giolito (CHW) Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox is having a great season. In ten starts he has a 4-2 record with a 3.43 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings. While Giolito is an elite pitcher, his strikeout total at 8.5 strikeouts has been set too high. In my opinion for Giolito to go over his strikeout total, he must pitch for more than six innings. This season starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings than most seasons and Giolito is about six innings per start. Against a loaded Minnesota Twins lineup, I think Giolito will have a difficult time getting enough innings and that is one of the reasons why I am betting on Giolitio having under 8.5 strikeouts at -150 odds.

The Twins lineup is averaging only 8.56 strikeouts per game which is around the league average. Additionally, the Twins have a sleeping giant of a lineup that last year averaged 5.73 runs per game. While the Twins lineup this year is averaging only 4.5 runs per game, the Twins could easily pile runs on Giolito forcing the White Sox to pull Giolito prematurely. Even if Giolito pitches well, there is no guarantee that he gets nine or more strikeouts. It is for those reasons why it is smart to take the under on Giolito’s inflated strikeout total.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Cole Under 9.5 Strikeouts Pays $88.46

$50 Giolito Under 8.5 Strikeouts Pays $83.33

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many great pitcher prop bets. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Joe Musgrove having under 5.5 strikeouts at -130 odds, and Jack Flaherty having under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

MLB Record: 36-18, +11.31 Units, 20.9% ROI

Tuesday, September 15th

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Joe Musgrove (PIT) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst record in the league and their season is about to end. One of their most disappointing starting pitchers is Joe Musgrove who in five starts has a 0-4 record with a 5.40 ERA. Virtually every time Musgrove touches the ball, his team losses. The reason why his strikeout total is set at the high amount of 5.5 strikeouts is because this season Musgrove has a strikeout rate of 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. However, I find Musgrove current strikeout rate deceiving as his career strikeout rate is only 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. That is one of the reasons why I am betting that Musgrove has under 5.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.

Besides his career strikeout rate being lower than his current strikeout rate, another reason to bet against him is because of his lack of projected innings. In Musgrove’s last three starts, he has only pitched between three and four innings. That is not enough time in a game for most pitchers to get six or more strikeouts. In his last start, Musgrove pitched four scoreless innings and they still did not keep him in the game for longer. With Musgrove unlikely to pitch many innings, it is smart to take the under on his strikeout total of 5.5 strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Jack Flaherty (STL) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals is having a great season. In six starts he has a 3-1 record with a 3.08 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 9.23 strikeouts per nine innings. While Flaherty is an elite pitcher, his strikeout total at 7.5 strikeouts has been set too high. The most strikeouts Flaherty has had in a game this season is only six strikeouts from his opening day start. Not only does Flaherty not have a high enough strikeout rate to justify that total, but his recent workload has been relatively small. Currently this season Flaherty is averaging only 4.39 innings per start. Based on Flaherty’s lack of innings and high strikeout total, I am betting that Flaherty has under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

The only rational reason why Flaherty’s strikeout total is set at 7.5 strikeouts is because of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup. The Brewers lineup averages the second most strikeouts of all teams with an average of 9.76 strikeouts per game. With a tendency to strikeout often, I usually like to target strikeout total overs for opposing pitchers. However, for Flaherty the total is set too high based on the amount of innings he is likely to pitch. That is why I am betting on Flaherty having under 7.5 strikeouts.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Musgrove Under 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $88.46

$50 Flaherty Under 7.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

Monday, September 14th

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Cody Ponce (PIT) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst record in the league and their season is about to end this season. With the Pirates season being essentially over, I am guessing that their goal is to evaluate their current talent for the 2021 regular season. Cody Ponce the starting pitcher for the Pirates is a 26-year-old rookie who has done well in limited action this season. There is a good chance that Cody Ponce is auditioning for a permanent spot in the Pirates rotation next season and that is why I think he is worth betting on. In his only two starts this season Ponce has pitched between four and six innings. I think Ponce pitches between five and six innings today which will get him at least four strikeouts.

In Ponce’s last start where he pitched only four innings against the Reds, Ponce had four strikeouts. I think he replicates that success again tonight for two reasons. The first reason is that I think he pitches more than four innings tonight because it is the first game of a double header. The second reason is because the Reds lineup averages only 3.89 runs per game which is the third lowest in the league. With an increased workload and a weak opposing lineup, I think betting on Ponce having over 3.5 strikeouts at -140 juice is a smart strategy.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Josh Lindblom (MIL) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

In Lindblom’s first season back in the MLB from the KBO, Lindblom has been a major disappointment. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.06 ERA, and he recently was demoted to the bullpen. The reason why Lindblom’s strikeout total is set so high is because Lindblom has a strikeout rate of 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings. While Lindblom has done well with striking batters out this season, his career strikeout rate of 8.67 strikeouts per nine innings is relatively average. Based on the possibility of Lindblom being taken out of the game early because of poor performance, and his current strikeout rate being due to variance, I am betting the Josh Lindblom has under 5.5 strikeouts at -125 odds.

Another reason to bet on Lindblom having under 5.5 strikeouts is because he has yet to pitch for more than five innings this season. Typically, Lindblom pitches between four and five innings. With Lindblom expected to see limited action tonight, I think it is unreasonable to expect him to strikeout as many batters as he has been striking out per inning. That is one of the many reasons why this is one of my favorite pitcher prop bets that has been offered so far this season.

Monday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Ponce Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

$50 Lindblom Under 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $90

Over my last eight picks, I have a 7-1 record. With a full slate of MLB games today, I look to build on that momentum. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Jacob deGrom having under 9.5 strikeouts at -125 odds, and Kris Bubic having over 4.5 strikeouts at +105 odds.

MLB Record: 34-16, +11.46 Units, 22.9% ROI

Friday, September 11th

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Jacob deGrom (NYM) Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Jacob deGrom is having another great season, while his team is having a mediocre season. Even though the Mets have a 20-24 record, deGrom has a 3-1 record with a 1.69 ERA. Recently deGrom has been throwing six to seven quality innings per game and he has a strikeout rate of 13.13 batters per nine innings. The obvious bet to make would be on deGrom having over 9.5 strikeouts, but I believe there is more value in the under. While deGrom is great at getting strikeouts, getting ten or more strikeouts is rare for any pitcher. I think it is more likely that deGrom gets eight or nine strikeouts, and that is why I am betting that deGrom has under 9.5 strikeouts at -125 odds.

In seven of deGrom’s eight starts, deGrom faced lineups that rank in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts per game. Additionally, he had ten or more strikeouts in only three of those eight games. deGrom faces a Blue Jays lineup tonight that averages only 8.37 strikeouts per game which is the 11th fewest strikeouts per game in the league. It is counterintuitive to bet against a great pitcher like deGrom, and I think that there is great value in betting against him because of the inflated odds. That is why I am betting on deGrom having under 9.5 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Kris Bubic (KCR) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic is not exactly a household name. As a rookie starting pitcher on one of the worst teams in baseball, it is easy for Bubic to go unnoticed. Bubic currently has a 0-5 record, with a 4.89 ERA. Despite what appears to be a poor record on the surface, Bubic is more appealing tonight than usual. Bubic faces a Pirates team that has the worst record in the league. One of the reasons why the Pirates are so bad is because their lineup averages only 3.9 runs per game which is the 3rd fewest in the league. Additionally, Bubic threw for seven innings in his last start against the Chicago White Sox and he is averaging 7.97 strikeouts per nine innings. Based on the strength of Bubic’s opponent and his recent usage, I am betting that Kris Bubic has over 4.5 strikeouts at +105 odds.

While Bubic’s strikeout rate is relatively average, the Pirates lineup is easier to strikeout than most. The Pirates lineup ranks in the bottom third of teams in strikeouts per game as they average 8.71 strikeouts per game. When you combine that with their lineup being unable to produce runs, I think the Royals keep Bubic in the game for enough innings to get five or more strikeouts.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 deGrom Under 9.5 Strikeouts Pays $90

$50 Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $102.50

Currently I am on a 6-0 run with pitcher prop bets. With a small slate of MLB games today, there are a few pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Sean Manaea having over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 odds, and Kyle Gibson having over 3.5 strikeouts at -175 odds.

MLB Record: 33-15, +11.36 Units, 23.7% ROI

Thursday, September 10th

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Pick: Sean Manaea (OAK) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Sean Manaea is having a relatively unremarkable year as he has a 3-2 record with a 5.09 ERA. For Manaea to get enough innings to go over his strikeout total, he most likely will have to pitch better than how he has been pitching this season. While 3.5 strikeouts are usually the lowest that strikeout totals are set, for Manaea it seems like a relatively inappropriate number. Manaea is averaging 7.69 strikeouts per nine innings which is relatively below average. You can usually count on Manaea to pitch five innings, which is enough time for him to go over his total. That is why I think that Manaea will have at least four strikeouts.

In each of Manaea’s last four starts he has pitched for at least five innings per start. In the beginning of the season Manaea was pitching for only three to four innings per start, but now he is getting more opportunities to increase his strikeout totals. The only worry I have about Manaea’s strikeout total is that he is facing an Astros lineup that averages only 7.50 strikeouts per game which is the second fewest in the league. Despite the strength of the Astros lineup, I think Manaea will find a way to get at least four strikeouts. That is why I am betting on him having over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Pick: Kyle Gibson (TEX) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-175)

Kyle Gibson is having a terrible year as he has a 1-4 record with a 5.91 ERA. Pitchers not pitching well usually correlates with going under a strikeout total because it means that the pitcher is unlikely to pitch enough innings to go over his total. When the Rangers acquired Gibson this offseason, they were expecting to get a solid back of the rotation starter.

While Gibson has had a rough season, he is currently averaging 8.02 strikeouts per nine innings which is higher than most pitchers whose strikeout totals are set at 3.5. With Gibson having a bad year, I think he goes over his strikeout total because of the Texas Rangers ballpark Globe Life Field. Of all baseball stadiums this season, Globe Life Field is the 6th most pitcher friendly, and has the lowest ballpark homerun factor in the league. If Gibson can keep the Angels offense to a low number of runs, he will get enough innings to get four or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Gibson having over 3.5 strikeouts at -175 odds.

Despite Gibson having a poor season, he is still getting more innings than the typical starting pitcher. While the average starter is pitching for only 4.75 innings per start this season, Gibson is averaging 5.33 innings per start. With Gibson pitching for more innings than the typical starter and striking out batters at a decent rate, I think he goes over his strikeout total.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Manaea Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $105

$50 Gibson Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $79

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Julio Teheran having over 3.5 strikeouts at +100 odds, and Nick Margevicius having over 3.5 strikeouts at +125 odds.

MLB Record: 31-15, +9.11 Units, 19.8% ROI

Wednesday, September 9th

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Pick: Julio Teheran (LAA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Julio Teheran is having a terrible year as he has a 0-2 record with a 7.94 ERA. Pitchers not pitching well usually correlates with going under a strikeout total because it means that the pitcher is unlikely to pitch enough innings to go over his total. Additionally, Teheran is currently averaging only 5.16 strikeouts per nine innings. With a perfect storm of bad news surrounding Teheran, his strikeout total is set at only 3.5 strikeouts. The reason why I think he goes over his strikeout total has to do with the Texas Rangers ballpark Globe Life Field. Of all baseball stadiums this season, Globe Life Field is the 6th most pitcher friendly, and has the lowest ballpark homerun factor in the league. With Teheran having a change in scenery, I think he pitches better than usual and as a result he pitches enough innings to have four or more strikeouts.

In each of Teheran’s last three starts he has pitched for around five innings per start. Against a Rangers lineup that averages 8.51 strikeouts per game, I think Teheran can get four or more strikeouts in five innings of baseball today. In the past Teheran has averaged between eight and nine strikeouts per nine innings. If Teheran pitches anywhere near his past form, then I think he easily gets four or more strikeouts tonight. That is why I am betting that Julio Teheran will have over 3.5 strikeouts at even money odds.

Seattle Mariners @ San Francisco Giants

Pick: Nick Margevicius (SEA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Nick Margevicius is a pitcher who has more syllables in his last name than his strikeout total for tonight’s game. Last year in his rookie season with the San Diego Padres, Margevicius was terrible. This year for the Seattle Mariners, Margevicius has been one of their best pitchers as he has a 1-2 record with a 3.86 ERA. For tonight’s game against the San Francisco Giants, I think Margevicius does very well. I think Margevicius goes over his strikeout total of only 3.5 strikeouts because he will pitch for many innings and he is good at striking batters out. Over his last three starts, Margevicius is averaging 5.78 innings per start, and 9.35 strikeouts per nine innings. I think Margevicious continues pitching that well and that is why I am betting that he has over 3.5 strikeouts at +125 odds.

My only worry for Margevicious is that he faces trouble against a Giants lineup that averages only 8.23 strikeouts per nine innings. If Margevicious were to pitch for only four innings, then I do not think he gets four or more strikeouts. However, I think because the Mariners having been relying on him for around six innings per start recently, I think Margevicious will pitch for a long enough time to get four or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Margevicious having over 3.5 strikeouts at +125 odds.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Teheran Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $100

$50 Margevicius Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $112.50

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Tyler Mahle having over 5.5 strikeouts at +110 odds, and Lance Lynn having under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

MLB Record: 29-15, +7.30 Units, 16.6% ROI

Tuesday, September 8th

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Tyler Mahle (CIN) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

While Tyler Mahle is not one of the best pitchers in the league, I was shocked this morning when I saw that his strikeout total was set at only 5.5 strikeouts. Mahle is currently averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has pitched well recently. In Mahle’s last two starts, he has thrown for 13.2 innings. If Mahle pitches for around six innings today, I have a hard time seeing how he does not have at least six strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Tyler Mahle having over 5.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

Besides Mahle’s recent form, the best reason to take the over on his strikeout total is because of the opposing Chicago Cubs lineup which averages 9.45 strikeouts per game. Out of all 30 MLB teams, the Cubs lineup averages the 4th most strikeouts per game. If Mahle was not facing the Cubs, betting on him having 5.5 strikeouts might be stretch. With Mahle facing the Cubs, I think he easily surpasses that total. That is why I am betting on Tyler Mahle having over 5.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

Pick: Lance Lynn (TEX) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Typically, strikeout totals set at 7.5 strikeouts or higher are reserved for elite power pitchers such as Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, or Gerrit Cole. However, Lance Lynn is not an elite power pitcher. Throughout this whole season I have been taking the under on Lynn’s strikeout totals in each of his starts. The reason why is even though Lynn is a good pitcher, it is for that reason that the oddsmakers set his strikeout total at too high of a number. With Lynn’s strikeout total consistently being set to high, the best strategy to take with Lynn is to usually take the under on his strikeout total when it is set at 7.5 strikeouts or higher. That is why I am betting that he will have under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 juice.

In a season where most starting pitchers last fewer than five innings, Lynn is averaging 6.37 innings per start. With the Rangers stadium being one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league, Lynn is likely to last between six to seven innings tonight. Usually pitching that many innings is good for bettors who take the over on strikeout props, but Lynn has only thrown eight or more strikeouts in three of his nine starts this season. In my opinion I think that while Lynn gives up few runs in today’s game, he struggles to strike out enough Angels batters tonight. The Angels lineup is only averaging 8.36 strikeouts per game which is lower than the league average. When you factor in the Angels lineup, your best bet is to bet on Lance Lynn to have fewer than 7.5 strikeouts.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $105

$50 Lynn Under 7.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Jake Arrieta having over 2.5 strikeouts at -160 odds, and Zach Davies having over 3.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

MLB Record: 27-15, +6.05 Units, 14.4% ROI

Friday, September 4th

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Pick: Jake Arrieta (PHI) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-160)

While Jake Arrieta is not the pitcher he used to be, I was shocked this morning when I saw that his strikeout total was set at only 2.5 strikeouts. So far this season 2.5 strikeouts are the lowest strikeout total I have seen as I have only seen it a few other times. Seeing a strikeout total as low as 2.5 strikeouts is about as rare as finding a car salesman who does not try to pressure you to buy a car on the spot. While Arrieta has had a tough time this season, he can typically pitch for four to five innings. With a strikeout rate of 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings, and a career strikeout rate that is much higher, I think Arrieta can find a way to get at least three strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Arrieta having over 2.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

The only worry I have about Arrieta going over his strikeout total besides getting enough innings, is the Mets lineup. Out of all 30 teams in the league, the Mets lineup averages the seventh fewest strikeouts with an average of only 7.97 strikeouts per game. However, the Mets lineup is about average in its ability to produce runs so it could mean that Arrieta gets more innings than usual. Based on the low strikeout total, I think betting on Arrieta having over 2.5 strikeouts is a great bet.

San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics

Pick: Zach Davies (SDP) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)

I think the strikeout totals for both pitchers for tonight’s San Diego Padres vs. Oakland Athletics matchup have been set too low. Both Jesus Luzardo for the A’s and Zach Davies for the Padres could easily throw more strikeouts than the oddsmakers give them credit for. Out of both of those pitchers, the one whose total is most off is Davies. While Davies is not a pitcher who advanced metrics like as much as traditional metrics, he has been great this season at pitching for many innings. Davies is currently averaging 5.9 innings per start in a season where most starters last for fewer than five innings. With more strikeout opportunities than most pitchers, I think it is reasonable to expect Davies to have at least four or five strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Davies having over 3.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Davies is currently averaging 8.06 strikeouts per nine innings which is about average. In general, if you keep him in a game for five innings, Davies will have between four and five strikeouts. Against an A’s lineup that averages the most strikeouts per game in the whole league with an average of ten strikeouts per nine innings, I would even bet Zach Davies to go over 4.5 strikeouts. Luckily, I can bet him to go over only 3.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Arrieta Over 2.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

$50 Davies Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

With a small slate of MLB games today, there are not many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Taijuan Walker having over 4.5 strikeouts at +114 odds, and Clayton Kershaw having over 5.5 strikeouts at -128 odds.

MLB Record: 26-14, +6.27 Units, 15.7% ROI

Thursday, September 3rd

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Pick: Taijuan Walker (TOR) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Taijuan Walker presents a dilemma for people betting on his strikeout props for today. The Toronto Blue Jays recently acquired Walker in a trade, and he has only pitched in one start for them. It is unclear how the Blue Jays are going to handle Walker, but I think they continue to pitch him for many innings. This important because in a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings, Walker averages 5.5 innings per start. In Walker’s last start, he pitched six innings and had only four strikeouts. Walker does not have a reputation as a power pitcher, but the longer he is on the mound, the more strikeouts he will get. Currently Walker is averaging 7.91 strikeouts per nine innings which is not overwhelming, but good enough to expect five or more strikeouts from Walker in tonight’s game. That is why I am betting on Taijuan Walker having over 4.5 strikeouts at +114 odds.

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Another reason why I like the over on Walker’s strikeout total is because he is going against a Red Sox lineup that is currently averaging 9.05 strikeouts per game. That is worse than most teams in the league and I expect Walker to take advantage of that. If the Blue Jays keep Walker in tonight’s game for as long as I think they leave him in, Then he will have at least five strikeouts.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Clayton Kershaw (LAD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

This morning when I compared my model projections to the strikeout totals being offered, I was surprised that Clayton Kershaw’s strikeout total was set at only 5.5 strikeouts. As one of the best pitchers in the league, Kershaw’s player props are usually inflated to encourage bettors to take the under. What makes it a great bet to back Kershaw to have six or more strikeouts is that he is a powerful pitcher who can pitch for many innings. Kershaw is currently averaging six innings per start, and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. It is for that reason that I am betting on Kershaw having over 5.5 strikeouts at -128 odds.

In Kershaw’s only start against the Diamondbacks this season, Kershaw pitched 5.2 innings and had six strikeouts. In tonight’s game, I think Kershaw pitches even better. The Diamondbacks lineup has one of the lowest strikeout per game averages in the league, but they also have one of the worst lineups in the league for producing runs. With the Diamondbacks likely to struggle offensively against Kershaw, I think the Dodgers keep Kershaw in the game for between six and seven innings and he easily gets at least six strikeouts.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $107

$50 Kershaw Over 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $89.06

Wednesday, September 2nd

MLB Record: 25-13, +6.02 Units, 15.8% ROI

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Kyle Hendricks having over 4.5 strikeouts at +125 odds, and Jordan Montgomery having over 4.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Kyle Hendricks (CHC) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)

In a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. Kyle Hendricks is a dying breed. In seven starts this season, Hendricks is averaging 6.29 innings per start. If Hendricks can last five innings or more against the Pirates, he will have five or more strikeouts. Hendricks does not have a reputation as a power pitcher, but the longer he is on the mound, the more strikeouts he will get. In Hendricks last start, he pitched six innings and had six strikeouts. Even though Hendricks gave up ten hits and five earned runs, the Cubs kept him in the game. At +125 odds, betting on Hendricks to have over 4.5 strikeouts is a no-brainer.

I also like Hendricks against a Pirates lineup that is currently averaging 9.06 strikeouts per game. That is worse than most teams in the league and I expect Hendricks to take advantage of that. If the Cubs continue to keep Hendricks in tonight’s game, he will have at least five strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Pick: Jordan Montgomery (NYY) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Jordan Montgomery outside of one bad start this season has been a solid pitcher who can pitch five to six quality innings. In four out of his five starts, Montgomery has given up only one to three earned runs. With Montgomery being a solid pitcher, the Yankees like to keep him on the mound and that is one of the reasons why I like the over on his strikeout total. In Montgomery’s last start against the New York Mets, Montgomery pitched for five innings and had six strikeouts. I think Montgomery has at least five strikeouts today and that is why I am betting that he has over 4.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Montgomery has not thrown many strikeouts this season, but I am not terribly worried. Montgomery is currently averaging 7.40 strikeouts per nine innings, but the more important thing for me is that he is pitching many innings. Additionally, Montgomery faces a strikeout prone Tampa Bay lineup that is averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game. In general, a pitcher against Tampa Bay should get a strikeout per each inning pitched. With Montgomery likely to last five to six innings, I think he gets five or six strikeouts. That is why I am betting that Jordan Montgomery has over 4.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Hendricks Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $112.50

$50 Montgomery Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Kwang-Hyun Kim having over 3.5 strikeouts at +120 odds, and Michael Pineda having under 5.5 strikeouts at -172 odds.

MLB Record: 23-13, +4.24 Units, 11.8% ROI

Tuesday, September 1st

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Kwang-Hyun Kim (STL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)

In yesterday’s game, I bet on the St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher to have over 3.5 strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds and he had seven strikeouts. In today’s game, I am going to bet on the Cardinals starting pitcher to have over 3.5 strikeouts against the Reds again. Kwang-Hyun Kim the Cardinals starting pitcher is not a power pitcher. That is why his strikeout total is set at a low number. Currently Kim is averaging an abysmal 3.78 strikeouts per nine innings, so if Kim keeps pitching like that, he will have fewer than 3.5 strikeouts. However, this is Kim’s first MLB season after coming here from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) where he averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. I think Kim’s strikeout rate is going to end up somewhere between his KBO rate. Because Kim has pitched for many innings so far per start, I am betting on Kim to have over 3.5 strikeouts at +120 odds.

In his last two starts Kim has pitched for six innings. Virtually any pitcher can have at least four strikeouts if they are able to complete six innings. That is why I really like this bet. The only worry I have about Kim is that the Cincinnati Reds lineup is good at avoiding strikeouts. Of all MLB Teams, the Reds lineup rank 10th in the fewest strikeouts per game as they average only 8.34 strikeouts per game. However, the Reds lineup currently ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams in runs per game as they only score 4.00 runs per game. The Reds may not strike out as often as most teams, but because they have a hard time scoring, I think the Cardinals keep Kim in the game for a long time. That is why I am betting that Kwang-Hyun Kim will have over 3.5 strikeouts.

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

Pick: Michael Pineda (MIN) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-172)

One of my favorite pitcher prop plays in general to make is to bet against a pitcher in his first start of the season. Pitchers in their first start are either out of shape, and/or the team that is using them will use them for fewer innings to try and get them to ease back into the game. Michael Pineda of the Twins also has a long history of injuries. He missed three entire seasons (2012,2013, and 2018) with injuries. This season he has yet to pitch because of a 60-game suspension from 2019 for using a banned diuretic. While Pineda was not officially injured, with Pineda you can never be sure that he is healthy. That is why I am betting on him having fewer than 5.5 strikeouts at -172 odds.

Last season Pineda averaged 8.63 strikeouts per nine innings. Against a typical team Pineda would have to pitch for at least six innings to notch at least six strikeouts. I do not think that is likely due to Pineda pitching in his first game this season. Starting pitchers are being used less frequently this season due to the shortened nature. Additionally, while the White Sox lineup is strikeout prone in that they average 9.40 strikeouts per game, they also average the 5th most runs per game in the league with an average of 5.26 runs scored per game. If the White Sox hammer Pineda early, he could be taken out of the game even more prematurely than he would against a typical team. With Pineda facing an uphill battle against the White Sox, I am betting that Pineda will have under 5.5 strikeouts.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Kim Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $110

$50 Pineda Under 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $79.07

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With a small slate of MLB games today, there are not many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Dakota Hudson having over 3.5 strikeouts at -162 odds, and Tyler Glasnow having under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

MLB Record: 22-12, +4.62 Units, 13.6% ROI

Monday, August 31st

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Dakota Hudson (STL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-162)

Typically, a pitcher strikeout total set at only 3.5 strikeouts is a low amount. The reason why Dakota Hudson’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5 strikeouts is probably because he does not pitch for many innings. Currently Hudson is averaging 4.75 innings per start which is awfully close to the league average this year. Hudson currently is averaging 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings, so if Hudson gets enough innings, I think that he has at least four strikeouts in today’s game. In Hudson’s last start, Hudson threw for six innings against the Kansas City Royals only striking out three batters. I think Hudson pitches between five to six innings in today’s game against the Cincinnati Reds, and that is why I am betting on him having over 3.5 strikeouts at -162 juice.

The only worry I have about Hudson is that the Cincinnati Reds lineup is good at avoiding strikeouts. Of all MLB Teams, the Reds lineup rank 10th in the fewest strikeouts per game as they average only 8.26 strikeouts per game. However, the Reds lineup currently ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams in runs per game as they only score 3.97 runs per game. This include their last three games where they are averaging 2.33 runs per game. The Reds may not strike out as often as most teams, but because they have a hard time scoring, I think the Cardinals keep Hudson in the game for a long time. That is why I am betting that Dakota Hudson will have over 3.5 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Pick: Tyler Glasnow (TBR) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)

For a few weeks I have been betting against Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout totals and I have not done well. Despite my lack of success in fading Glasnow, I think his strikeout totals are overinflated because of his recent performance. Currently Glasnow is averaging 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings which is an astoundingly high average. This is higher than the league leader Shane Beiber who averages 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The only reason why Glasnow is not the league leader is because he has not pitched enough innings to qualify for the league leaderboard. This is because Glasnow is averaging an abysmal 4.67 innings per start. Due to Glasnow striking out hitters at an unsustainable rate, and not pitching many innings because of poor performance, I am betting that Tyler Glasnow will have under 7.5 strikeouts.

Glasnow’s strikeout rate is higher than Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, or Roger Clemons ever had in a single MLB season. There is no way that Glasnow continues striking out as many batters per nine innings as he is currently striking out. Glasnow is going up against a Yankees lineup that averages the 8th fewest strikeouts out of 30 teams with only 8.12 strikeouts per game. While the Yankees have been besieged with injuries lately, the replacement players in their lineup are not high strikeout players. When you factor in Glasnow’s unsustainable strikeout rate, his projected lack of innings, and the Yankees lineup, it makes complete sense to bet on Tyler Glasnow having under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 juice.

Monday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Hudson Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $81

$50 Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Jon Lester having over 3.5 strikeouts at -140 odds, and Robbie Ray having under 6.5 strikeouts at -120 odds.

MLB Record: 21-11, +4.91 Units, 15.3% ROI

Wednesday, August 26th

Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers

Pick: Jon Lester (CHC) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Despite Jon Lester having a dip in his performance, The Chicago Cubs continue to rely on him for a significant amount of innings. Currently, Lester is averaging 5.33 innings per start. This average includes Lester’s last start against the Chicago White Sox where Lester only lasted 3.2 innings after he gave up nine hits, and eight earned runs. In Lester’s previous three starts, Lester pitched for six innings. The Cubs love to have their starting pitchers pitch for many innings including Lester and that is why I think they leave him in the game long enough to have four or more strikeouts.

Lester has the fortune of facing the Detroit Tigers. Of all MLB Teams, the Tigers lineup averages the most strikeouts with an average of 10.18 strikeouts per game. Even though Lester is not a power pitcher striking out 5.74 batters per nine innings, I think he does very well against the Detroit Tigers. While Lester is likely to give up many runs, that will not affect the Cubs decision on whether to pull him out of the game. In a previous start against the Milwaukee Brewers, Lester pitched six innings despite giving up five earned runs, and nine hits. That is why I am betting on Jon Lester having over 3.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Robbie Ray (ARI) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Robbie Ray is great at striking batters out and that is why his strikeout total is set at 6.5 strikeouts. Currently Ray is averaging an astounding 11.67 strikeouts per nine innings. However, the issue with Ray is not if he can strike batters out, it is if the Diamondbacks keep him in the game long enough to get seven or more strikeouts. With Ray being an erratic pitcher with an 8.33 ERA, the most he has pitched this season is five innings. That is why I think he gets only five strikeouts in today’s game. For that reason, I am betting that Ray has under 6.5 strikeouts at -120 odds against the Colorado Rockies.

Another reason why Ray will not pitch for many innings is because the Diamondbacks are rumored to be shopping Ray on the trade market as a reliever. With the Diamondbacks trying to convince other teams that Ray is a reliever, it is likely that they pitch Ray for even fewer innings than he is currently pitching. The trade deadline is five days away on August 31st, and the last thing the Diamondbacks want is for Ray to have another poor outing. When you combine this with the Rockies having the 8th fewest strikeouts per game in the league, it makes complete sense to bet that Robbie Ray will have under 6.5 strikeouts at -120 odds.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Ray Under 6.5 Strikeouts Pays $91.66

$50 Lester Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

Professor Props aka MLB betting expert Kevin Davis provides his best pitcher prop bets from the day’s Major League Baseball slate.

With a full slate of MLB games today, there are many pitcher props that have great value. For today’s slate I like two pitcher props. I am betting on Tyler Glasnow having under 7.5 strikeouts at -160 odds, and Marco Gonzalez having over 4.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

MLB Record: 20-10, +5.20 Units, 17.3% ROI

Tuesday, August 25th

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Tyler Glasnow (TBR) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Tyler Glasnow has had a significant dip in his performance this season compared to last season where he had a 1.78 ERA. Currently Glasnow has a 6.00 ERA in five starts. Currently this season the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. Glasnow has been typical of this trend as he is averaging only 4.2 innings per start. Even though Glasnow is great at striking batters out, I believe he does not pitch enough innings to get eight or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Glasnow to have fewer than 7.5 strikeouts at -160 juice.

While I think Glasnow goes under his strikeout total tonight, if he ever pitches for more than five innings, he will be the type of pitcher to notch at least eight strikeouts per start. Currently Glasnow is averaging 15 strikeouts per nine innings which is an astounding rate. However, I do not think that Glasnow can keep striking out batters at that rate as Randy Johnson could never even average that number of strikeouts per nine innings in any of his 22 major league seasons. Against an Orioles lineup that is averaging only 8.29 strikeouts per game, I think Glasnow throws fewer than 7.5 strikeouts.

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres

Pick: Marco Gonzalez (SEA) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

After Marco Gonzalez’s last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, I am surprised that his strikeout total is set at only 4.5 strikeouts. In seven innings against the loaded Dodgers lineup, Gonzalez gave up only one earned run, and had nine strikeouts. The Dodgers average the 2nd fewest strikeouts per game with an average of only 7.47 strikeouts per game. As the ace of the Mariners starting rotation, Gonzalez pitches many innings. Currently Gonzalez averages 5.93 innings per start which is more than an inning higher than the league average. Based on Gonzalez recent success, and his ability to pitch many innings I am betting that he has over 4.5 strikeouts at -140 odds.

The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in the league. They currently have a 18-12 record and four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Currently their lineup averages 5.43 runs per game which is the second highest in the league. However, their lineup averages 8.40 strikeouts per game which is around the league average. Even if the Padres lineup does well against Gonzalez, I think the Mariners keep him in the game long enough to get five or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Marco Gonzalez having over 4.5 strikeouts.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

$50 Gonzalez Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

With a small slate of MLB games today, there are two pitcher props that have value. For today’s slate I like Alec Mills to have over 4.5 strikeouts at -120 odds, and Framber Valdez to have over 4.5 strikeouts at +125 juice.

Monday, August 24th

Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers

Pick: Alec Mills (CHC) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Of all 30 MLB teams, the Detroit Tigers lineup ranks last in strikeouts per game as they average an astounding 10.27 strikeouts per game. Any pitcher who pitches against them is going to have more strikeouts than usual if they have the stamina to pitch many innings. The starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs today against the Detroit Tigers is Alec Mills who has been solid this season. That is why I am betting on Alec Mills having over 4.5 strikeouts at -120 juice.

The 28-year old Mills does not have much major league experience. That is why it is a surprise to me that he is averaging 5.55 innings per start in a season where most starting pitchers are pitching for fewer than five innings. In his last start Mills lasted for only 3.2 innings, but in his previous three starts he pitched six to seven innings. While Mills is only averaging 5.96 strikeouts per nine innings, I think he does very well against the Detroit Tigers. I expect Mills to pitch six innings which in my opinion means that he will be in the game long enough to notch at least five strikeouts.

Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros

Pick: Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Starting pitcher Framber Valdez has been a pleasant surprise for the Houston Astros this season. After a disastrous 2019 season, in five starts Valdez has a 2-2 record with a 1.72 ERA. Most importantly, Valdez is averaging an impressive 6.27 innings per start. In his last start against the Rockies at Coors Field, Valdez managed to pitch for 7.2 innings. When you factor in Valdez’s relatively average strikeout rate of 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings, it makes completely sense to bet that Valdez will have over 4.5 strikeouts at +125 juice.

Currently the Angels lineup is averaging 8.45 strikeouts per game which is close to the league average. Additionally, the Angels lineup is only averaging 4.52 runs per game which is below the league average. I think Valdez easily stays in the game long enough against the Angels to get at least five strikeouts. At +125 odds, the payout on Framber Valdez is too lucrative to ignore.

Monday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Mills Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $92

$50 Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $112.50

Friday, August 21st

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

Pick: Dallas Keuchel (CHW) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Twice this season in this column I picked on Dallas Kuechel to go over his strikeout total and he delivered. Keuchel may not be one of the most powerful pitchers in the league, but he is one of the biggest innings eaters. For a player to go over their strikeout total, they need to throw enough strikeouts in the time that they pitch. In Kuechel’s case he may not get many of his outs by strikeout, but he gets many outs. That is why I am shaking the Kuechel money tree again by betting that he will have over 3.5 strikeouts at +100 juice.

Last season Kuechel averaged 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and currently this season Kuechel is only averaging 4.95 strikeouts per nine innings. Eventually Kuechel’s strikeout rate will be closer to last season’s amount than this season. If Kuechel were to pitch only five innings per start taking the over on his strikeout total would be a bad bet, but the reason why it is a great bet is because of his stamina. This season starting pitchers are averaging only 4.73 innings per start, an 8.7% decrease from 2019. Kuechel is currently averaging 5.87 innings per start. With Kuechel pitching more innings than most pitchers, his strikeout total should be set at a higher number. That is why I am going to keep betting on Keuchel throwing over 3.5 strikeouts regardless of his opponent.

In addition to Kuechel’s low-water mark strikeout total, the other reason why I think Kuechel throws more than 3.5 strikeouts tonight has to do with the Cubs lineup. Currently, the Cubs are last out of all 30 MLB teams in strikeouts per game as they average 10.42 strikeouts per game. It does not take a genius to figure out that Kuechel will have an easier time striking out Cubs hitters than other hitters. When Kuechel faced the strikeout prone Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers, he had four and eight strikeouts in both of those starts. With a strikeout prone lineup, and a proven innings eater, I think that Keuchel will have at least four strikeouts tonight.

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

Pick: Mike Fiers (OAK) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)

Mike Fiers is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league and that is why his strikeout total is only set at 3.5 strikeouts. However, for a pitcher to go over their strikeout total they do not need to be good they only need to get strikeouts. In three of his five starts this season, Fiers has pitched for six innings which is rare this season. With such a heavy workload, Fiers must only strikeout batters at a rate of six strikeouts per nine innings. While Fiers is only averaging 4.57 strikeouts per nine innings this season, Fiers averaged 6.14 strikeouts per nine innings last season. That is why I am betting on Fiers having over 3.5 strikeouts at +130 odds.

Currently the Angels lineup is averaging 8.58 strikeouts per game which is close to the league average. In their last three games they are averaging ten strikeouts a game. Additionally, the Angels lineup is only averaging 4.62 runs per game which is below the league average. I think Fiers stays in the game long enough against the Angels to get at least four strikeouts. I may not be comfortable sweating this bet out, but the +130 odds are too enticing to ignore.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Kuechel Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $100

$50 Fiers Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $115

Thursday, August 20th

Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins

Pick: Brandon Woodruff (MIL) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers has made five starts this season, only striking out seven or more batters once. Even though the vigorish on his under 6.5 strikeout prop is at -160 juice, I think this is a good bet to make. Currently this season the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings per start. In Woodruff’s last two starts, he has only pitched for either 4 or 4.1 innings. Even though in both of those starts he did not pitch poorly, the Brewers took Woodruff out prematurely. If Woodruff cannot pitch many innings against the Twins, then he is not going over his strikeout total. That is why I am betting that Woodruff will have fewer than 6.5 strikeouts.

Currently the Twins lineup is averaging only 8.72 strikeouts per game. While that average is slightly below the league median, it is not high enough for Woodruff to get seven strikeouts or more. Currently Woodruff is averaging 11.55 strikeouts per nine innings. If he pitches close to six innings, he might get seven or more strikeouts. However, I doubt that Woodruff will get that much action and that is why I am betting on him having under 6.5 strikeouts at -160 odds.

Texas Rangers @ San Diego Padres

Pick: Dinelson Lamet (SD) Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Dinelson Lamet of the San Diego Padres is off to a great start this season. In five starts he has a 2-1 record with a 1.59 ERA, and 36 strikeouts. Lamet is currently averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings which is the 9th highest in the league. There is no doubt that Lamet is a great pitcher, but his strikeout total at 8.5 strikeouts is set too high. If Lamet were to pitch a whole game, he could potentially get nine or more strikeouts. However, despite giving up only one earned run in any of his five starts, Lamet has yet to pitch for more than 6.2 innings. That is why I am betting on Lamet having under 8.5 strikeouts at -125 odds, because I do not think that he pitches for long enough to go over.

Lamet has only thrown for nine or more strikeouts once this season in his five starts. Today, Lamet faces a Texas Rangers lineup which has the 10th fewest strikeouts per game out of all 30 MLB teams. The Rangers lineup is currently averaging only 8.22 strikeouts per game. The only way I can see Lamet having nine or more strikeouts is if he pitches seven innings today. I do not see that happening and that is why you should bet on Dinelson Lamet having under 8.5 strikeouts at -125 odds.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Woodruff Under 6.5 Strikeouts Pays $81.25

$50 Lamet Under 8.5 Strikeouts Pays $90

Wednesday, August 19th

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Pick: Tyler Glasnow (TBR) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Tyler Glasnow has had a significant dip in his performance this season compared to last season where he had a 1.78 ERA. Currently Glasnow has a 7.04 ERA in four starts. Currently this season the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. Glasnow has been typical of this trend as he is averaging only 3.83 innings per start. Even though Glasnow is great at striking batters out, I believe he does not do well against the Yankees and he gets taken out of the game too early for him to get seven or more strikeouts that is why I am betting on Glasnow to have fewer than 6.5 strikeouts at +110 odds.

While I think Glasnow goes under his strikeout total tonight, if he ever pitches for five or more innings, he will be the type of pitcher to notch at least seven strikeouts per start. Currently Glasnow is averaging 15.85 strikeouts per nine innings which is an astounding rate. However, I do not think that Glasnow can keep striking out batters at that rate as Randy Johnson could never even average that number of strikeouts per nine innings in any of his 22 major league seasons. Against an overpowering Yankees lineup that is averaging only 8.17 strikeouts per game, I think Glasnow throws fewer than 6.5 strikeouts.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics

Pick: Merrill Kelly (ARI) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks is off to a great start this season. In four starts he has a 3-1 record with a 1.71 ERA. Currently he is not striking out many batters, but the Diamondbacks are keeping him in games for much longer than most starting pitchers. In his last start I bet that Merrill Kelly would have over 4.5 strikeouts, and he rewarded me with seven strikeouts. In all four of his starts, Kelly has pitched for six or more innings. If the Diamondbacks continue to leave Kelly in games for that long, then betting on him to have over 4.5 strikeouts is a no-brainer.

Last season in Kelly’s rookie year, Kelly averaged 7.8 strikeouts per game. If Kelly were the type of pitcher to pitch around five innings per game, then I would be hesitant to take the over on his strikeout total. Currently Kelly is averaging 7.59 strikeouts per game, which is a low number. However, the Oakland A’s lineup averages the third most strikeouts per game with an average of 10.08 strikeouts per game. Against a strikeout prone lineup, and an ability to pitch many innings, I think Kelly easily gets five or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on the over on Merrill Kelly’s 4.5 strikeout total again at -140 juice.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Glasnow Under 6.5 Strikeouts Pays $105

$50 Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $85.71

Tuesday, August 18th

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

Pick: Dylan Crease (CHW) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)

On Tuesday night, the Detroit Tigers visit the Chicago White Sox. If someone were to bet on Dylan Crease of the White Sox’s strikeout total solely based on intuition, they would bet on Crease having over 6.5 strikeouts. The Tigers lineup has the second most strikeouts per game in major league baseball as they average 10.15 strikeouts. However, if you were to bet on anything based on intuition you would lose money. For Tuesday nights game, I am taking a counter-intuitive approach by betting that Crease will have fewer than 6.5 strikeouts at only -106 juice.

Currently Crease is doing much better than I would have expected this season as he has a 3-1 record with a 3.26 ERA in four starts. Currently Crease is averaging 5.67 innings per start over his last three starts. While Crease is likely to have another solid outing against the Tigers, betting on him to have seven or more strikeouts is a stretch. The most strikeouts Crease has in any game this season is only five and I do not see how the Tigers lineup is bad enough for Crease to notch seven or more strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Crease to have under 6.5 strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Pick: Yu Darvish (CHC) Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)

On Tuesday Night, the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals. Pitching for the Cubs is starting pitcher Yu Darvish. For betting on Yu Darvish to have under 8.5 strikeouts at a -150 juice, the juice is worth the squeeze. Darvish is a great pitcher who is pitching for many innings this season but setting his strikeout total at 8.5 strikeouts is a stretch. The Cardinals are currently second among major league lineups in fewest strikeouts per game as they average only 7.20 strikeouts per game. Even in the unlikely event that Darvish pitches a complete game, it is unlikely that he would have nine or more strikeouts against the Cardinals. That is why I am betting that he has under 8.5 strikeouts.

There are two reasons why Darvish’s strikeout total has been set at a high number. The first reason is because in a season full of starting pitchers pitching only four innings per start, Darvish is averaging six innings per start. In Darvish’s last two starts, Darvish pitched for seven innings in each start. The second reason why Darvish’s total has been set high is because in Darvish’s last start he had eleven strikeouts. While that might be a cause for concern, that was against the Milwaukee Brewers lineup who lead the league in strikeouts per game. Additionally, that was Darvish’s only start this season where he had more than seven strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Darvish to have under 8.5 strikeouts.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Crease Under 6.5 Strikeouts Pays $97.50

$50 Darvish Under 8.5 Strikeouts Pays $83.33

With a small slate of MLB games today, there are two pitcher props that have value. For today’s slate I like Jordan Yamamoto to have fewer than 4.5 strikeouts at -143 juice, and Jordan Montgomery to have over 3.5 strikeouts at -129 juice.

MLB Record: 12-6, 2.68 Units, 14.9% ROI

Monday, August 17th

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

Pick: Jordan Yamamoto (MIA) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-129)

Jordan Yamamoto of the Miami Marlins is great at striking batters out. However, he has also been terrible in two starts this season as he has a 9.82 ERA in only 7.1 innings of action. If Yamamoto pitches poorly again, the Marlins are likely to take him out of the game early. For a pitcher to go over their strikeout total, they typically must pitch many innings.

Yamamoto has not pitched for more than four innings in each of his starts this season. If Yamamoto were to last only four innings in tonight’s game, he would have to strikeout batters at a rate of 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings. Last season Yamamoto averaged 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. In my opinion Yamamoto needs to pitch at least five innings to get five strikeouts or more. I do not think that is going to happen so I am betting at that Jordan Yamamoto will have fewer than 4.5 strikeouts at -129 juice.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Pick: Jordan Montgomery (NYY) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-143)

Jordan Montgomery outside of one bad start this season has been a solid pitcher who can pitch five to six quality innings. Do not be fooled by Montgomery’s 5.17 ERA, in one start against the Philadelphia Phillies Montgomery pitched four innings giving up five earned runs which inflated his ERA. What is notable is that one of Montgomery’s three starts this year came against the Boston Red Sox where he pitched 5.2 innings giving up only one earned run. Today Montgomery faces the Red Sox against, and I think he has another big game against them. That is why I am betting that he has over 3.5 strikeouts at -129 juice.

Montgomery has not thrown many strikeouts this season, but I am not terribly worried. Montgomery is currently averaging 5.75 strikeouts per nine innings, but the more important thing for me is that he is pitching many innings. Four strikeouts for any pitcher is easy to hit if they pitch for almost six innings. I think that Montgomery will easily pitch that amount of innings tonight against the Red Sox. Montgomery has a career average of 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and if he pitches anywhere near that form, I think that betting on Montgomery to have over 3.5 strikeouts is a great bet.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Yamamoto Under 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $89

$50 Montgomery Over 3.5 Strikeouts Pays $85

Friday, August 14th

Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

Pick: Lance Lynn (TEX) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-143)

Typically, strikeout totals set at 7.5 strikeouts or higher are reserved for elite power pitchers such as Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, or Gerrit Cole. However, Lance Lynn is not an elite power pitcher. Throughout this whole season I have been taking the under on Lynn’s strikeout totals in each of his starts. In Lynn’s last start I bet that he would have under 8.5 strikeouts against the Angels, and he had only six strikeouts. Last season Lynn had a career year, and this season he is doing even better as he has a 2-0 record with a 1.16 ERA in four starts. However even with Lynn pitching at a level that he will not be able to continue at, he has only had eight or more strikeouts in two of his starts this season. That is why I am betting that he will have under 7.5 strikeouts at -143 juice.

In a season where most starting pitchers last fewer than five innings, Lynn has pitched for at least six innings in three of his starts. However, he may pitch for fewer innings today as all his starts so far have been in pitcher friendly parks. Tonight’s start is at Coors Field which is the most hitter friendly park in the league. If Lynn gives up three or more earned runs than I suspect that he will pitch for fewer than six innings. In my opinion Lynn needs to pitch for over six innings to get eight or more strikeouts. Additionally, the Rockies lineup is only averaging 8.44 strikeouts per game. When you factor in Lynn’s usage, the Rockies lineup, and the impact of Coors Field, your best bet is to bet on Lance Lynn to have fewer than 7.5 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Merrill Kelly (ARI) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Merrill Kelly for the Arizona Diamondbacks is off to a great start this season. In three starts he has a 2-1 record with a 2.29 ERA. Currently he is not striking out many batters, but the Diamondbacks are keeping him in games for much longer than most starting pitchers. In all three of his starts including his last one against the San Diego Padres, Kelly has pitched for six or more innings. If the Diamondbacks continue to leave Kelly in games for that long, then betting on him to have over 4.5 strikeouts is a no-brainer.

Last season in Kelly’s rookie year, Kelly averaged 7.8 strikeouts per game. If Kelly were the type of pitcher to pitch around five innings per game, then I would be hesitant to take the over on his strikeout total. Currently Kelly is averaging 6.9 strikeouts per game, but I think he eventually increases those numbers. The Padres lineup is close to the league average in strikeouts per game as they average 8.7 strikeouts per game. In the likely event that Kelly pitches for six innings, I think he gets five or six strikeouts. That is why I am betting on Merrill Kelly having over 4.5 strikeouts at -150 juice.

Friday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Lynn Under 7.5 Strikeouts Pays $85

$50 Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts Pays $83.50

Thursday, August 13th

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Pick: Tyler Glasnow (TBR) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Tyler Glasnow is a poster child for starting pitchers in a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. In all three of his starts this season Glasnow has pitched for fewer than five innings in all of them. In his last start against the Yankees, Glasnow pitched for only 2.2 innings.

With Glasnow having a smaller workload this season, he is still striking out batters at an impressive rate. Currently Glasnow is striking out 15.1 batters per nine innings. To put that number into context, the most strikeouts per nine innings that Nolan Ryan ever averaged in a full season was 11.5. The reason why I am betting on Glasnow to have fewer than 5.5 strikeouts, is because it is going to be extremely hard for him to get strikeouts unless his workload significantly increases.

Another reason why I am betting against Glasnow is because the Red Sox are not an easy enough team to strikeout. Currently the Red Sox are averaging 9.11 strikeouts per game. While that is below the league average of 8.75 team strikeouts per game, it is not high enough for Glasnow to get six or more strikeouts in only four innings. That is why I cannot think of a good reason to bet against Glasnow having fewer than 5.5 strikeouts.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Glasnow Under 5.5 Strikeouts Pays $90

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Wednesday, August 12th

Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Indians

Pick: Kyle Hendricks (CHC) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

In a season where the average starting pitcher lasts fewer than five innings. Kyle Hendricks is a dying breed. In three starts this season, Hendricks is averaging 6.78 innings per start. If Hendricks can last five innings or more against the Indians, he will have five or more strikeouts. Hendricks does not have a reputation as a power pitcher, but the longer he is on the mound, the more strikeouts he will get. In Hendricks last start, he pitched seven innings and only had three strikeouts. This is rare for Hendricks as only 14.3% of his outs came from strikeouts. Last season, 28.2% of Hendricks outs came from strikeouts.

I also like Hendricks against an Indians lineup that is currently averaging 9.11 strikeouts per game. That is worse than most teams in the league and I expect Hendricks to take advantage of that. If the Cubs continue to keep Hendricks in tonight’s game, he will have at least five strikeouts.

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Eric Lauer (MIL) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Eric Lauer of the Milwaukee Brewers has been an unmitigated disaster this season as a starting pitcher. In only two starts, Lauer has a 9.53 ERA and has only pitched for 5.2 innings. The only reason why Lauer’s total is set at 4.5 strikeouts rather than 3.5 is because in one of those starts, he had six strikeouts in 2.2 innings. However, Lauer is averaging fewer than three innings per appearance this season. If Lauer has any hope of having five or more strikeouts, he needs to pitch for more than five innings which I think is unlikely. Even in his first start this season where he gave up no earned runs, the Brewers left him in the game for only 2.2 innings. Usually pitchers get taken out of the game before the fifth inning if they are doing a bad job, not when they are doing a good job.

Besides Lauer not being likely to last against the Twins in tonight’s game, the Twins lineup is dangerous. They currently average 4.78 runs per game, and last year they averaged 5.50 runs per game. Even if the Twins do not hammer Lauer causing him to have an early exit, they are not particularly strikeout prone. The Twins lineup currently averages 8.94 strikeouts per game which while higher than the league average, is not high enough to make up for Lauer’s lack of innings. I think it is highly unlikely that Lauer has five or more strikeouts tonight.

FoxBet Daily Special

Pick: Kyle Hendricks (CHC) to record strikeouts than Eric Lauer (MIL) (-105)

FoxBet has a custom bet feature where if you write to them suggesting a bet, they will put up odds for that bet. I wrote to them on Twitter asking if they can put up a custom bet for Kyle Hendricks having more strikeouts than Eric Lauer, and they posted my bet with -105 odds.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Hendricks Over 4.5 Strikeouts Wins $95.50

$50 Lauer Under 4.5 Strikeouts Wins $93.47

$50 Hendricks to record more strikeouts than Lauer wins $97.50

Previous Picks:

Tuesday, August 11th

Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Elieser Hernandez (MIA) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

The Miami Marlins are one of 2020’s most vexing stories. Last season they were one of the worst teams in the league, and most people expected more of the same from this young team. Additionally, the Marlins had a large coronavirus outbreak that postponed a weeks’ worth of games. Despite all this the Marlins are tied for first place in the NL East. One way that the Marlins have been able to win games with a weakened roster is by relying on their starting pitchers for fewer innings than most teams. That is why I am betting on Elieser Hernandez to have fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in tonight’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, because I do not think that he pitches long enough to get six or more strikeouts.

In Hernandez’s only start of the season he did not give up a single earned run, and he pitched for only 4.1 innings striking out five batters. Currently the Blue Jays lineup only averages 8.69 strikeouts per game. Based on Hernandez’s abilities, he needs to pitch for at least six innings in order to throw six or more strikeouts. With the Marlins using starting pitchers for five or fewer innings, I do not see that happening and that Is why I am betting on Hernandez having fewer than 5.5 strikeouts at -160 juice.

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Dylan Bundy (LAA) Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110)

Do not be fooled by Dylan Bundy’s 2020 record, he is not a reliable starting pitcher. This season in three starts Bundy has pitched for 21.2 innings giving up only five earned runs. If Bundy continues pitching this well, he will have under 2.5 earned runs. However, if history is an indicator on Bundy’s performance, he will give up three or more earned runs tonight against the Oakland A’s. Bundy previously spent his entire career with the Baltimore Orioles, and I do not think changing teams has made him a significantly better pitcher. In 2019 Bundy had a 4.79 ERA, and in 2018 he had a 5.45 ERA. If Bundy pitches closer to that form than betting on Bundy to have over 2.5 earned runs at +110 is a great bet.

Besides Bundy being a disaster waiting to happen, another reason to make this bet Is because of the A’s lineup. Currently the A’s lineup is averaging 4.71 runs per game. Their lineup is well-rounded and can take advantage of Bundy at any moment in the game. Bundy’s numbers this season are partly due to two of his starts where he pitched against the Seattle Mariners who have a weak lineup. I think that the A’s take advantage of Bundy, and that Bundy gives up three to four earned runs tonight.

Monday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Hernandez Under 5.5 Strikeouts Wins $81.25

$50 Bundy Over 2.5 Earned Runs Wins $105.00

Previous Picks:

Monday, August 10th

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Sean Newcomb (ATL) Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-165)

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Sean Newcomb has been a disaster in three starts this season as he has an 0-1 record with a 6.57 ERA. However, setting his earned runs total at 3.5 runs is way too much for Newcomb. In all three of Newcomb’s starts, he has pitched for fewer than five innings. In only one of those starts did Newcomb allow for more than 3.5 earned runs when he gave up six earned runs against the New York Mets. In his other two starts, Newcomb gave up only one or two earned runs. The reason why I like this bet is that I do not think that the Braves leave Newcomb in the game long enough for him to give up more than 3.5 earned runs.

Facing off against Newcomb and the Braves are the Philadelphia Phillies. Currently the Phillies are averaging 4.20 runs per game. For the Phillies to score at least four runs against Newcomb, their lineup needs to perform better than usual. During Sunday’s doubleheader against the Braves, the Phillies scored only two runs in both seven inning games. I am betting that Sean Newcomb will have over 3.5 earned runs against the Phillies because of his lack of expected innings, and the Phillies lineup.

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

Pick: Dallas Keuchel (CHI) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)

For Dallas Kuechel’s last start I bet that Kuechel would have over 3.5 strikeouts and he delivered. In eight innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, Kuechel threw eight strikeouts. For Monday’s game against the Detroit Tigers, I am shaking the Kuechel money tree again by betting that he will have over 3.5 strikeouts at -145 juice.

The reason why the strikeout totals are set too low on Keuchel is because he is not a power pitcher. Last season Kuechel averaged 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. In Kuechel’s first two starts this year, Keuchel has pitched for 10.2 innings and had only three strikeouts. However, in Kuechel last start he had eight strikeouts. Additionally, one factor I look for in player prop bets besides ability, is in usage. This season starting pitchers are averaging only 4.73 innings per start, an 8.7% decrease from 2019. Kuechel is averaging 5.89 innings per start. With Kuechel pitching more innings than most pitchers, his strikeout total should be set at a higher number. That is why I am going to keep betting on Keuchel throwing over 3.5 strikeouts regardless of his opponent.

In addition to Kuechel’s low-water mark strikeout total, the other reason why I think Kuechel throws more than 3.5 strikeouts tonight has to do with the Tigers lineup. Currently, the Tigers are last out of all 30 MLB teams in strikeouts per game as they average 10.92 strikeouts per game. It does not take a genius to figure out that Kuechel will have an easier time striking out Tigers hitters than other hitters. With a strikeout prone lineup, and a proven innings eater, I think that Keuchel will have at least four strikeouts tonight.

Friday, August 7th

Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

Pick: Tommy Milone (BAL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The Baltimore Orioles are the worst team in the league despite what their record suggests. Starting pitchers are also pitching fewer innings this year due to the expanded rosters for the shortened season. However, despite all this the strikeout totals for the worst pitchers in the league are being set too low. Tommy Milone who is the starting pitcher for the Orioles is a career journeyman who is not known as a power pitcher. However, despite having a 5.63 ERA this season, the Orioles have left him in games long enough to get at least five strikeouts in both of his starts this year. I believe he will do the same against the Nationals and that is why I am betting on Milone having over 3.5 strikeouts at -125 juice.

Besides Milone getting enough innings tonight to go over his strikeout total, the other factor that you must consider is the Nationals lineup. The Nationals are currently averaging only 3.33 runs per game which is the 3rd lowest out of all MLB teams. That is good for betting on Milone because if they do not score runs against him, the Orioles will leave him in the game for longer. This is important because the Nationals average 7.56 strikeouts per game which is the fourth lowest amount in the league. However, I think Milone stays in the game long enough to notch at least four strikeouts.

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Julio Urias (LAD) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are -260 favorites against the San Francisco Giants in tonight’s nationally televised game. If you were to bet $50 on the Dodgers to win tonight, you would only net less than $20 in profit if they win. However, if you bet on the Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias having a great night as it relates to his strikeout total you would net $40 in profit. If you can make twice as much betting on Urias as you can on the Dodgers alone, you should take that bet.

My model projects Urias to have 5.44 strikeouts tonight against the Giants. This is for two reasons, the amount of innings that he will pitch and his power pitching. In Urias’s first two starts this season he has pitched for five or six innings. While in a typical MLB season this is normal, for this season this is an above average workload. In both of those starts he only had 8 strikeouts over 11 innings, but that is not a red flag for me. This is because last year Urias pitched 79.2 innings and he had 85 strikeouts. With Urias projected to pitch almost six innings tonight against the Giants, I think he gets at least five strikeouts.

Thursday, August 6th

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Kenta Maeda (MIN) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Ever since coming to the Minnesota Twins from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kenta Maeda has been dominant. In two starts this season Maeda is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA, and 12 strikeouts in 11 innings. Against a team that cannot score in the Pittsburgh Pirates I expect that dominance to continue. Currently the Pirates average only 3.25 runs per game which is the fourth lowest in the league. With Maeda able to strike out batters and being kept in the game for longer because of his dominance, I believe he will get over 4.5 strikeouts in today’s game.

Besides Maeda being dominant, the other consideration you must consider is the Pirates lineup. They may be unable to score runs, but they are great about not striking out. The Pirates lineup lacks power and my model projects the Pirates to eventually average 7.5 strikeouts per game which would be one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. Currently they average 8.75 strikeouts per game which is close to the league median. However, I think Maeda stays in the game long enough to notch at least five strikeouts.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Pick: Mike Minor (TEX) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

In 2019 Rangers starting pitcher Mike Minor had a career year with a 14-10 record and a 3.59 ERA. This year in the shortened season, Minor has gotten off to a rough start with an 0-2 record and a 5.91 ERA. I think Minor eventually improves as a pitcher, but his strikeout total at 6.5 strikeouts is set too high. In two starts this season he has pitched between five and six innings striking out between three and six batters per start. For Minor to notch seven or more strikeouts he would have to pitch more innings. I see Minor pitching more innings as an unlikely event because of starting pitchers pitching for fewers innings due to the shortened season. That is why I am betting that Mike Minor will have under 6.5 strikeouts at -160 juice.

In addition to Minor’s high-water mark strikeout total, the reason why the strikeout total is set too high has to do with the A’s lineup. Currently, the A’s are 26th out of 30 MLB teams in strikeouts per game as they average 10.08 strikeouts per game. However, I project the A’s projected lineup to average only 8.71 strikeouts per game. One of the strange things that happens with small sample sizes is that people come to the wrong conclusions more frequently. I think that Minor is going to have a tough time getting strikeouts against the A’s, and enough innings to eclipse 6.5 strikeouts. That is why I am taking the under.

Thursday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

$50 Maeda Over 4.5 Strikeouts Wins $88.46

$50 Minor Under 6.5 Strikeouts Wins $81.25

Register at bet365 in New Jersey for the best MLB Prop Bet lines.

PREVIOUS PICKS – RECORD 4-0 

Wednesday, August 5th

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Trevor Williams (PIT) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)

The question for tonight’s game between the Minnesota Twins and the Pittsburgh Pirates is not over who is going to win. The Twins are one of the best teams in the league and the Pirates are one of the worst. The odds reflect this, but if you look at the pitcher strikeout props you can find some good value. Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Pitcher Trevor Williams might be an unstable pitcher, but he is great at striking batters out. In two starts this season he has pitched 8.1 innings striking out nine batters. If the Pirates keep Williams in the game for at least four innings, I believe that he gets over 3.5 strikeouts.

In addition to Williams power pitching, the other reason why I think Williams pitches over 3.5 strikeouts tonight has to do with the Twins lineup. The Twins average 8.36 strikeouts per game. This is better than the league average, but not low enough to hold Williams to fewer than 3.5 strikeouts. If Williams can last at east four innings against the Twins, he will have more than 3.5 strikeouts.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago White Sox

Pick: Dallas Keuchel Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-175)

For a buy low pick that is more obvious than Williams, I am betting that Dallas Keuchel of the Chicago White Sox will have more 3.5 strikeouts against the Milwaukee Brewers. Keuchel is in a strange place so far this season. In two starts this season Keuchel has pitched for 10.2 innings giving up only four earned runs and striking out only three batters. Kuechel is performing well in his goal of preventing runs, but he is striking out fewer batters than usual. Last season Kuechel averaged 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. While that is not overpowering, Keuchel is a proven innings eater. I believe that Keuchel will pitch six innings tonight striking out five batters.

In addition to Kuechel’s low-water mark strikeout total, the other reason why I think Kuechel throws more than 3.5 strikeouts tonight has to do with the Brewers lineup. Currently, the Brewers are 29th out of 30 MLB teams in strikeouts per game as they average 10.5 strikeouts per game. For most opponents Keuchel throwing four or more strikeouts might be a stretch, but not against the Brewers. With a strikeout prone lineup, and a proven innings eater, I think that Keuchel will have at least four strikeouts tonight.

Wednesday’s Pitcher Prop Bet Slip:

We are placing our Prop Bets at bet365 in New Jersey and below is the returns for 2 x $50 Singles.

$50 Keuchel Over 3.5 Strikeouts Wins $78.57

$50 Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts Wins $83.33

—————————

Tuesday, August 4th

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Charlie Morton (TB) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

If this game were played last year, Charlie Morton would probably have between seven to eight strikeouts. However, starting pitchers are being used much differently this year than they were last year. With pitchers being out of shape because of the shortened season, and teams having larger bullpens due to expanded rosters, starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings. Last season, Morton averaged 5.88 innings per start. This season Morton is averaging 4.5 innings per start. For Morton to have at least seven strikeouts, Morton needs to pitch six innings tonight and I think that is unlikely.

In addition to Morton’s lack of innings, the other reason why I think Morton pitches under 6.5 strikeouts tonight has to do with the Boston Red Sox lineup. The Red Sox average only 8.6 strikeouts per game. I do not believe that Morton will be much more successful at striking out the Red Sox tonight as other starting pitchers have been. That is why I am betting that Charlie Morton will have fewer than 6.5 strikeouts against the Red Sox.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Pick: Lance Lynn Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Typically, when strikeout totals set at 8.5 strikeouts or higher are reserved for elite power pitchers such as Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, or Gerrit Cole. However, Lance Lynn is not an elite power pitcher. In 2019, Lynn had a career year as he received the 5th most American League Cy Young votes. In the 2019 season Lynn averaged 7.46 strikeouts a start which is more than a full strikeout lower than his 8.5 strikeout total for tonight’s game. In two starts this season, Lynn has averaged six innings and 8.5 strikeouts per start. I believe that Lynn will pitch fewer innings tonight and have a lower strikeout rate. That is why I am betting that he will have fewer than 8.5 strikeouts.

In addition to Lynn’s high-water mark strikeout total, the other reason why I think Lynn throws fewer than 8.5 strikeouts tonight have to do with the Oakland A’s lineup. Currently, the A’s average 9.8 strikeouts per game. However, I believe that has more to do with the shortened season than the A’s lineup. My model projects the A’s lineup for tonight’s game to average only 8.71 strikeouts per game. Even with Lynn being better than the average pitcher, I do not see how he will be in the game long enough for him to notch nine or more strikeouts against the A’s. That is why I am betting that Lance Lynn will have fewer than 8.5 strikeouts against the A’s.

Tuesday’s Pitcher Prop Parlay: $50 wins $143.75!

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