Dae Bets is giving you his best three bets for today’s 16 game slate (20-11 so far this season)
The last two weeks have reassured my earlier thoughts about baseball this year. No pitcher is safe. Yesterday Verlander got lit up by the Reds giving up 3 runs in the first inning. Regardless of what the MLB says something must have been to the baseball or every pitcher in the league throws batting practice now. Let’s find some pitchers we trust today!
Today is 16 game slate including a doubleheader with between the Phillies and Nationals. The first pitch of the day will be thrown in the Great American Small Park at 12:35pm. Just make it through those first few hours at work and you will home free. That’s what my plan is. As I said finding pitchers we trust these days is very hard. Everyone is getting blown up sporadically by bad teams. I swear it happens all week in some cases (great pitchers getting blown up) then it won’t pop up for a while. However, in the long run, the stats will prevail so I will keep doing what I’ve been doing all season and that is going with pitchers I trust as we are still doing great overall despite a rough past week.
Brewers @ Padres 3:40pm
Speaking of pitchers I trust Davies (7-1 2.60 ERA) is one of them. Last week was the first time he let me down and it was against the Giants of all team but hey they just took down the Maeda and the Dodgers as well. The Padres are coming off a record-breaking series against the Rockies and I believe they will have some “Coors” lag from that series for at least a week. The Padres are a power right-handed team and Davies is only allowing a .245 batting avg and .153 ISO to right-handed batters. His favorite pitch is a fastball-sinker throwing it about 60% of the time. Only Hosmer and Renfroe have crazy stats against this pitch so I like Davies in this spot. The Padres projected pitcher is Matt Strahm (2-6 4.66 ERA) who is giving up over a .200 ISO to lefties and righties. He also has some reverse splits allowing a .383 batting average to lefties… I don’t think I need to say this but the Brewers have Yelich and Moose. Lastly, Strahm is also allowing over a 45% hard-hit rate to righties. LoCain, Aguilar, and Grandal should like this matchup as well.
Brewers Money Line -113 @ Draftkings
Tigers @ Pirates 7:05pm
Trevor Williams (2-1 3.33 ERA) is primed for a great return from injury tomorrow against the Tigers. Ever since all-star break last year, Williams has been on a tear. The Tigers lineup is mostly right handed and before his injury, Williams was only allowing a .233 batting average to righties. Not to mention this Tigers line-up is just bad in general. They are the third worst team in the league right now when it comes to batting average. The Tigers are rolling out Zimmerman (0-4 5.93 ERA) who is giving up a .286 ISO to lefties! Bell is going into the river again today you heard it here first. Zimmerman is also holding an allowed batting average over .250 to lefties and righties. Here we have a clear case of a bad pitcher with no run support going up against a solid pitcher who should also have a guaranteed three runs to back him up. Frazier, Bell, Marte, and Melky have all been hitting the ball well and should enjoy the A+ matchup.
Pirates Money Line -122 @ Draftkings
Giants @ Dodgers
Dodgers in their home park are in play every single day. They are 29-9 at home, almost unbeatable and they are facing a Giants team that they should have swept. However, the Giants have been putting up a fight against right-handed pitching. Luckily here the Dodgers will have Rich Hill a lefty. That will take most of the scary bats out of play for the Giants. The only one that will remain is power bat Tyler Austin who I believe Hill can navigate past. The Giants are pitching Drew Pomeranz who throws his vintage knuckleball. If the Dodger can locate it they will blow the Giants out of the waters. Pomeranz is allowing a .240 ISO to right-handed bats so if you are into prop bets just take the Hernandez home run bet and move along. Bellinger and Muncy also are split proof they can hit lefties just as well as righties. No way the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 at home to the Giants especially with a lefty on the mound. This was the easiest pick of the day. We will have to take the run line to make it worth the play but They should cover that and more.
