Daeshon Underwood (19-9) picks out the three best bets from Monday’s 12 game Major League Baseball slate.
This is Dae Bets coming at you with my three favorite bets on today’s slate. After placing these bets you will have something to look forward too after that rough Monday work day. So far this season I am 19-9 after a rough 1-2 yesterday, but this slate looks promising. Let’s get after it.
Today we have a nice twelve game 7pm slate. Always love these larger slates as it is so much easier to find the value you are looking for. Yesterday’s scores looked like softball scores. There were seven teams with over ten runs, two coming from the record-breaking series in Coors field. I watched as my pick went up in flames at the top of the ninth. A trend I have noticed this year is that many bullpens are allowing huge comebacks this year. It is definitely something to keep an eye on and I will definitely start considering bullpen ERA more throughout the year especially when looking into my run line plays. That being said today is a great day to start with many. I’m sure adding bullpen ERA to my everyday checklist will improve the overall success rate of my picks.
Indians @ Rangers 8:05pm
My first pick of the day comes from Texas. In this game Mike Clevinger, one of my favorite pitchers in the league is finally returning from injury. He was very solid posting a 13-8 record with a 3.08 ERA last year. In this matchup, he will be facing a Rangers lineup still missing their best power bat Joey Gallo. The Indians bats are also heating up besides Jose Ramirez who in my opinion is just too good of a player to keep this terrible hitting streak up. The Rangers are projected to pitch Lance Lynn (7-4 4.40 ERA) who is allowing .291 batting average to lefties as well as a .241 avg to righties. If Clevinger was one hundred percent the Indians would be huge favorites in this match up however that is not the case. Instead, we are receiving great value by betting on the Indians here. I have enough trust in Clevinger to bring down a non-healthy Rangers line-up especially when the Indians bullpen currently ranks 1st in the MLB in ERA.
Mets @ Braves 7:20pm
Coming off of a great homestand against the Phillies the Braves now will stare now another division rival at home, the Mets. Mike Soroka (7-1 1.92 ERA) will be on the mound so if you have been following my picks throughout the season you know how much I love this kid. He has one of the best sliders in the league holding over a 40% whiff rate. He is allowing under a .245 average to lefties and under a .164 average to righties. He is not allowing people on base period. He also has only allowed 2 home runs all season! The Mets are rolling out Zach Wheeler (5-4 4.87 ERA) who has been very on and off all season. In his last start, he was blown up by the Yankees and is currently allowing a .270 batting average to righties. Wheeler is a good pitcher, in my opinion, I just don’t believe he has what it takes to tame this Braves lineup who just scored 15 runs yesterday and are staying in their home park. Acuna, Freeman, Riley,
etc will go to work today. The Braves bullpen has also been solid currently 10th in the league in the ERA the Mets are 26th.
Giants @ Dodgers 10:10pm
This is a simple case of David vs Goliath and there is no way that Goliath is losing this one. The Dodgers are the world series favorite in many people’s eyes at this point. They are currently holding a 28-8 record at home which is unbelievable. Kenta Maeda is the projected pitcher for the Dodgers and he has been struggling vs lefties allowing at .271 avg and over a .200 ISO. This Giants lineup is lefty dominant but none of them are really crushing other than Brandon Belt. As long as Maeda can keep him away from the long he should be fine against the 2nd to last hitting team in the league. He also should receive a ton of run support with the Dodgers taking on Tyler Beede (0-2 8.06 ERA). Beede is allowing a .382 batting average and a .353 ISO to lefties and he is facing the best lefty line up in the MLB… not a good combination. This is the game where home run prop bets could be very profitable. Joc, Bellinger, and Muncy could all go yard here. The Dodgers bullpen currently ranks 14th that is fine against this Giants team.