After going 2-1 in his last article Dae Bets is giving you his best three bets to get your weekend started in the right direction. (22-12 so far this season)
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Today we have a nice 15 game slate to get into. We have been killing run lines lately so I will be sure to add one in this article. Teams are just scoring so many runs they are often covering for us. Don’t forget if you are afraid of taking run lines you can always just take -1 for safety. The odds don’t have much value as -1.5 but this way if your team wins by 1 it results in push rather than a loss. Let’s try that out today.
We finally got back on track Wednesday with a 2-1 day including the Brewers blowing a 2 run lead in the 9th inning. I swear everyone is crushing the baseball this season. It doesn’t matter if the pitcher is great their hard-hit rate and ISO needs to be low to avoid these bombs that are being hit. Going with ground ball pitchers may be something to take into account just to avoid some of the variance that has been happening in these past two weeks. Regardless there are some great spots on this slate and it is time to get the maximum value out of them like we always do.
Astros @ Yankees 7:05pm
The teams shining these past two weeks haven’t been the teams with just great pitching but power bats as well. With the addition of Encarnacion (and Judge/Stanton both returning), the Yankees line-up is just too good to ignore. At this point, all the players in the Yankees line-up can hit two home runs in any game. Peacock (6-4 3.67 ERA) is projected to pitch for the Astros but even he has no shot against this super team. Peacock throws the Fastball Sinker 48% of the time against righties and the projected 2-6 batters on the Yankees all average over a .200 ISO against that pitch. In this hitter-friendly Yankees ballpark that is a problem. The Yankees also have the big maple on the mound Mr. Paxton (4-3 3.93 ERA). He is only allowing a .225 batting average to righties and is not getting hit hard by them at all. That being said he should be able to avoid the power in this Astros lineup. The Astros (with Altuve just returning from injury) are also still without Correa and Springer. In this battle of teams struggling through injuries all season, I will take the one returning to full strength.
PICK: Yankees Money Line -156 @PointsBet
Tigers @ Indians 7:10pm
In this game, we are going right back to picking on a team that is struggling to get on base the Tigers. They currently have the third worst batting average in the league. At the same time, Bauer has been returning to how he played last season. He is allowing under a .170 average to righties which the Detroit team is mostly composed of. Bauer also recently just pitched a full game against this team, showing that he can truly dominate this line-up. Detroit will have their best pitcher on the mound Mathew Boyd who is doing just a bit worse than Bauer in multiple categories including allowed batting average. However, Bauer has a much better line up behind him especially considering they are facing a lefty. Lindor and Luplow have been crushing left-handed pitching all season. I wouldn’t mind a prop home run bet on either of them. Bauer will shut this team out again, The Indians just need to get past Boyd.
PICK: Indians Run Line (-1) -159 @ Draftkings
Twins @ Royals 8:15pm
The Twins just took a terrible loss yesterday. There is no way they should have lost that game with Odorizzi facing Sparkman. I see this being a great bounce-back spot for them. They have the best offense in the league this year (well maybe second now) and are facing Junis (4-6 5.33). Junis is allowing over a .300 batting average to lefties and about a .200 ISO to batters on both sides of the plate. The power bats on this twins team should have a field day Kepler, Rosario, Cruz I love them all. They also have Perez taking mound (7-3 4.09 ERA) who is actually allowing less than a .120 ISO to lefties and righties. This is amazing to see because if you can stay away from home runs in a season like this you are bound to do well. It also helps when your team is leading in multiple hitting categories. Regardless Perez is in a great sport for an easy win.
PICK: Twins Money Line – 148 @ SugarHouse