Two teams on this slate hold the worst and second-worst batting average in the league. We will be attacking them with run lines. Currently, we are 24-12 this season!
With only seven games on the slate, we have to be sure to dive deep into our options. Coming off a great past week I will stick with my strategy. I have noticed that you can only adjust run lines on certain sportsbooks. Draftkings allows you to make any run line -1. As I said last week using the -1 run line is safer than -1.5 because you won’t get punished if your team wins by one the bet will just become a push. At the same time if they win by 2 you will receive much better odds than a money line bet. I just refuse to place a money line bet that is worse than -175 I much rather take a play with value. That being said there are a few spots that I can see a -1 run line being very useful. In the last article, we had two wins and a push let’s keep it rolling.
Yankees @ Blue Jays 7:05pm
Easy win here for the Yankees everything points at them being the winner. The Blue Jays are currently last in the league in batting average and they are set to face future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia. Sabathia (4-4 4.14 ERA) is absolutely shutting down lefties which should help against some of the Blue Jays top bats. He is getting hit quite a bit by righties but the Blue Jays are so bad I can see that canceling out. On the other side of the mound, Aaron Sanchez (3-9 5.49 ERA) is projected to pitch and he is allowing over a .270 batting average to lefties and righties. That will definitely will be a problem considering this Yankee line-up could be an All-Star team by themselves. They are back at full strength and to many people they are the World Series favorites. Lastly, the Blue Jays are 13-25 at home while the Yankees are 21-14 in away games.
PICK: Yankees Run Line (-1.5) -129
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks 9:40pm
This is going to be the game to watch. Greinke (8-3 2.91 ERA) is in MVP form currently allowing under a .230 batting average and a .160 ISO to lefties and righties. He is a force, however, so is this Dodgers line-up who just keeps adding more and more stars to their line – up. They just broke history being the first team ever with three walk-off home runs from rookies in a row (all different rookies). I see their line up just being way too much to handle for Greinke they just need to get his pitch count up and get into the bullpen. In addition to the bats, the Dodgers will have their ace on the mound Clayton Kershaw (7-1 2.85 ERA). Kershaw being a lefty should help in right from the start as the Diamondbacks are hitting right-handed pitching a bit better than left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks also have been struggling with a 15-21 record at home.
P. S. I don’t know if anyone remembers but the Diamondbacks struggled at the start of the season with off-speed pitches and Kershaw has the best curveball in the game.
Dodgers Run Line (-1) -107
Rockies @ Giants 10:05pm
Ah, Pomeranz is on the mound fire up the power bats. If the game was in Coors the Rockies would send fireworks into the sky all night. Pomeranz (2-7 7.09 ERA) is getting crushed from the right side of the plate allowing a whopping .276 ISO and a .420 wOBA… that is ridiculous. I wrote up the Dodgers last time they faced Pomeranz and said if they locate his knuckle curve they will crush him and they did. This is the same situation multiple Rockies can double dong (hit two home runs) here. The Rockies are projected to pitch Jon Gray (7-5 4.18 ERA) and I actually like this spot of him as he has reverse splits so far this year pitching much better against lefties compared to righties. These stats should help him against this Lefty dominate Giants line-up. However, he might not need to pitch that well considering the Giants are second to last in the league in batting average and the Giants have Pomeranz on the mound.
Rockies Run Line (-1) -103