Thursday Night Football: Dolphins at Jaguars Preview, Prediction & Pick

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Josh Widman
Josh graduated from Syracuse University in May 2020 with a degree in Broadcast and Digital Journalism. He played basketball and baseball in High School. Despite growing up in New Jersey, he roots for the Cleveland Browns, Cavaliers and Indians. He has two favorite sports movies: Dodgeball and Major League. Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals is his favorite sporting event of all-time and his favorite sports memory is playing in a white-out basketball game under the lights against a rival summer camp when he was 15 years old.

It’s Fitzmagic vs Minshew Mania for in-state bragging rights on Thursday Night as the Jaguars welcome the Dolphins to TIAA Bank Field.

Two teams that nearly pulled off week two upsets kick off week three. The Dolphins sunk to 0-2 after a three-point loss to the Bills. Miami even held a fourth quarter lead against its division rival before Josh Allen catapulted Buffalo in front for good with two TD passes in under three minutes of game time. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick thrived against a Bills defense that is regarded as one of the best in the league. The journeyman from Harvard completed 31 of 47 passes for 328 yards and pair of TD passes. Miami also had success on the ground, totaling 99 yards and averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

Jacksonville could not overcome a poor start despite outscoring Tennessee 20-9 in the second half. QB Gardner Minshew had another big day through the air. The sophomore completed 30 of 45 passes for 339 yards and three TD passes. He did throw two INTs as well. Jacksonville also ran over the Tennessee defense. The Jaguars rushed for 165 yards and averaged over six yards per carry. Expect some points and gaudy numbers on Thursday night from two teams with exciting QBs and below-average defenses.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Key Stats

  • Gardner Minshew is Top-Five among QBs in completion percentage (75.4%) and passing TDs (6)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is 16-16 in September but 26-54 on the road in his career
  • Jacksonville is 2-0 against the spread and both their games have hit the Over

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Lines

  • The O/U is 48
  • The Jaguars are 3 point favorites on DraftKings
  • The Jaguars are -157 on the ML, Dolphins are +138

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Prediction

Jacksonville has shown that it can score and get enough stops to remain in the game. Miami is 30th in total defense and 26th in scoring offense. Jacksonville’s defense has plenty to improve on but it did contain Derrick Henry last week. He rushed for 84 yards but averaged under 3.5 yards per carry and failed to score. On offense, Minshew has demonstrated an ability to spread the wealth around to all of his targets. His six passing TDs have gone to five different receivers. I trust Minshew more than Fitzpatrick to hang onto the ball. Miami is by far the worst defense Minshew has faced in 2020 and I fully expect him to take advantage.

In terms of the O/U, points shouldn’t be a problem for these teams. If the QBs take care of the ball, this game has shootout potential. I’d take the over. Both of these defenses give up at least 26 points per game. Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill lit up these two defenses on Sunday. The two offenses also face a below average defense for the first time this season. Watch for both TEs in this matchup after both had big week two performances. Miami’s Mike Geisicki caught eight passes for 130 yards and a TD. Jacksonville’s Tyler Eifert only caught three passes but one was a TD and he was targeted six times.

Fitzpatrick and Minshew each face their best matchups so far and they will provide fireworks that’ll make this game watchable.

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