The Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview, Prediction & Picks

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Jake Ernst
Sportswriter and Social Media Manager for The American Betting Experts - Covering a variety of sports including the NBA, MLB, NFL and NASCAR - Former New York Yankees Contributor for Sports Illustrated's "FanSided" site - Rowan University Journalism Class of 2018.

Jake Ernst had a winner last week and he’s back this week with 2 selections for Saturday’s NASCAR at Richmond Raceway.

Man, don’t the wins just feel so good? After back-to-back second-place finishes for us in terms of gambling, Martin Truex Jr helped us cash in this past weekend and we will be looking to add to our winnings in just a few days. It’s a short week as NASCAR is now headed to Richmond Raceway for The Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday night at 7:30pm.

One thing that I love about Richmond is that it’s a track that NASCAR races at twice a year so there is certainly no shortage of race statistics. It’s not rocket science, but typically the less the cup series races at each track, the harder it is to predict. Having two races at the track each season not only provides the opportunity to research and analyze more data but also allows the drivers to get plenty of experience at the track. Speaking of experience, the two drivers I will be wagering on are no strangers to Richmond, as they both have 25+ starts at the 0.75-mile track.

The bet: Kyle Busch to win at +300 on FanDuel Sportsbook

You can’t talk about short-track racing without bringing up Busch’s name. Arguably his best track on the schedule each year, the 34-year-old has an average finish of 6.96 in his 28 starts at Richmond. Remarkably, Busch has finished outside the top-10 just seven times in his career at the track, meaning he has 21 top-10’s (most of any active driver). Now, Busch doesn’t only finish in the top-10 at Richmond, but he also wins (a lot). He has six wins and six runner-ups finishes in his career at Richmond and what is very interesting about Busch’s wins at this track is that they seem to come in spurts.

After going winless at Richmond for his first eight races, Busch went on to win four out of his next seven races there from 2009-2012. Following that and after failing to win for another 10 races, Busch has strung together two wins in his last three races at the 0.75-mile track. It seems like he is in the midst of one of his win streaks at Richmond and having not won a race since June 2nd, he is long overdue for a victory.

The bet: Denny Hamlin to win at +650 on SugarHouse Sportsbook

Hamlin has finished sixth-or-better in seven of his last eight races at his hometown track and in his 26 starts at the track, has an average finish of 9.38. He has 16 top-10’s, three wins and a total of 1,659 laps led under his belt at Richmond and is having arguably the best season of his 15-year career. Prior to last week’s race at Las Vegas, Hamlin was tied for the win-lead with teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. with four a-piece but after Truex’s win on Sunday, Hamlin is now one behind and likely doesn’t plan to be there for long. I love Hamlin’s odds at +650 and am very surprised he isn’t one of the favorites for this one.

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