Super Bowl LIV: Prop analysis and best picks

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With sportbooks releasing a multitude of prop bets, bettors are scrambling to find the best value. I’m here to help.

49ers and Chiefs prop analysis

Sports bettors love props. There’s no two ways around it. They’re interesting, engaging, and they keep you at the edge of your seat each and every play. With so many props being released on this game, where does the value lie? Let’s analyze some numbers, shall we?

Let’s start with the quarterbacks. If you follow both of these teams, you know their styles contrast sharply. The Chiefs, lead by Patrick Mahomes, love to air the ball out, go downfield, and score quickly. The 49ers conversely, play tough defense, milk the clock, and try to bully you into the ground with their running game.

Because of that, the totals for each QB vary significantly. Mahomes has his passing yards total set at O/U 299.5. While this is a high number, let’s discuss. In the 13 games that Mahomes has started and finished, he finished with 300+ yards in 7, a 54% clip. It’s important to take note of the fact that of those 7 games, 5 of them game in his first 5 games. The Chiefs had taken a more methodical approach as the season wore on, relying more on their defense.

In a game of this magnitude, the Chiefs are going to rely on their franchise QB to make plays. The total for the game is 54, meaning that there is expected to be points scored. If the Chiefs score points, Mahomes is going to have to air it out against this defense, and while not always an easy task against San Francisco, the Chiefs have no choice. Take the over here.

Bonus Pick: Mahomes first completion: Under 9.5 (-112)

Taking a turn to the 49ers side, let’s look at their rushing stats. They rushed for an average of 154.2 YPG, good for 2nd in the NFL during the regular season. In their 2 postseason games, that number has skyrocketed, as they have relied heavier on the rushing game, running for an average of 235.5 YPG.

Raheem Mostert, a little known undrafted RB, had a game for the ages in the NFC Championship game, running for 220 yards and 4, yes 4 TDs. To expect him to repeat this performance is a fool’s errand, but his total is interesting in the Super Bowl. It’s currently set at 77.5, and he is favored at -125 to go under that total.

The 49ers try and keep you off balance. What you go into the game expecting is rarely with Head Coach Kyle Shanahan throws your way. The Chiefs are going to rightfully be focusing their attention at Mostert, and because of this, I believe he won’t be as intergral in their gameplan as previous weeks. That’s not to say that he won’t be involved, but with the innovation of their offense, combined with the Chiefs solid run defense as of late, leads me to believe the Under will hit here.

Looking at the pass-catchers on both sides, there are some intriguing numbers to look at. 49ers Tight End George Kittle has his totals set at 5.5 receptions and 73.5 yards. While Kittle is a huge part of the 49ers passing attack, they use him to run block extensively. I also expect the Chiefs to use hybrid safety Tyrann Mathieu to shadow Kittle for most of the contest. Because of this, I simply don’t see value in taking the overs for Kittle, and am leaning under on both of these totals.

Fliers/Long-Shots

Now that the heavy hitters are out of the way, some of the real value lies in the long-shots. A prime example of this was Raheem Mostert, who last week had a +5000 tag on running for 3+TDs. The people who hit that are happy right now.

Below is a list of props that may not be obvious, but therein lies the value:

  • Playing position of first score: WR (+210)
  • Total Sacks: Over 4.5 (-148)
  • Either team success 2-point conversion: YES (+275)
  • Either team to score 3+ times unanswered: NO (+180)
  • Gatorade color: Purple (+1200) (KOBE)
  • Either team to miss FG: NO (-125)
  • MVP: Nick Bosa (+2500)

With the Chiefs passing attack, and the 49ers looking to keep them offbalanced, I think the first touchdown will be from a WR. Both teams have very good pass rushers, so the sack total looks low to me.

One of my favorite bets of the game is for either team to score 3+ times unanswered. Both of these teams are evenly matched, and I expect them to go back and forth throughout. I don’t think one team will pull away with consecutive scores like this.

And my long-shot of the day is Nick Bosa for MVP at -2500. Think of it like this, yes QBs usually get the MVP award, but if Bosa harrasses Mahomes enough to get him out of his comfort zone, records a few sacks, and forces a fumble, the 49ers will probably win. Why is that? Because of the contributions of Bosa. This is admittedly a long-shot, but at the odds, you have to like the chances.

Betting on Super Bowl props keeps the whole game entertaining. Good luck, and make sure you get your picks in!

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