La Liga is Back! Sevilla vs. Real Betis Preview, Predictions and Picks

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Matt Tenby
Matt has been a writer for American Betting Experts since 2019. He loves to watch, bet on and write about soccer but is also a huge NBA and NFL fan.

The Spanish soccer season resumes play on Thursday starting with one of Europe’s feistiest fixtures, the Seville Derby.

Sevilla (3rd) vs. Real Betis (12th)

Date: Thursday, June 11

Start Time: 4:00pm EST

Venue: Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium

TV Coverage: beIN SPORTS 1

Sevilla vs. Real Betis Match Preview

Following the enforced suspension of global sports due to COVID-19 back in March, German soccer made its long-awaited return to action on March 6. The progress made by the Bundesliga in returning to action was closely monitored by other European soccer leagues and, just over two weeks ago, Spanish soccer announced plans to return on June 11. Here we are!

With 11 La Liga matchdays still to play, there’s still loads up for grabs. As expected every season, there’s a battle right at the top between Barcelona, on 58 points, and Real Madrid, on 56 points. These two European heavyweights will likely fight till the very end of the season for the chance to be crowned Spanish champions.

Just as two points separate the top two, there is a two-point gap between Sevilla in third-place and Atletico Madrid in sixth. Sevilla, Real Sociedad, Getafe, Atletico Madrid and Valencia are all involved in one of the closest battles for the top-four and entry to next season’s Champions League in recent memory.

This makes Thursday’s Seville Derby absolutely huge for Sevilla and their top four aspirations.

Sevilla Recent Form: L-D-W-W-D

Real Betis Recent Form: L-D-D-L-W

While Sevilla are sitting in third-place and in control of their hunt for a return to the Champions League for the first time since the 2017/18 season, Betis are languishing in mid-table after a difficult season. Betis have conceded the third-highest number of goals in La Liga this season. They also appear to be one of the few teams in the league who have very little on the line – too far away to realistically challenge for a European spot and almost safe from relegation.

However, Betis will not want to take that mind-set into Thursday’s derby. Sevilla are aiming to win both Seville derbies this season for the first time since 2016/17, after winning the first one back in October. Betis will be determined to prevent that from happening.

Sevilla vs. Real Betis Head-to-Head Stats:

  • Only one of the last five Seville derbies has ended in a draw
  • Both teams have scored in five of the last six Seville derbies
  • The host team has recorded three of the last five victories

Sevilla vs. Real Betis Predictions

From watching the post-lockdown soccer in Germany, it’s clear that home advantage appears to have been lessened. Home wins are significantly lower in the Bundesliga since the return to action compared to before the break. This joined with the fact the away side has won three of the last six Seville clashes suggests that Thursday’s game will be a lot closer than the league standings show.

However, Betis have been in terrible form away from home this season. They have won just one of their 13 games on the road so far and have scored just three goals in their last five away games. Taking all of this into account, and the thinking that Sevilla naturally have a lot more to play for, we’re predicting a narrow win for the home side. Match sharpness will be lacking, but Sevilla should have enough about them to get the result.

As with any derby match, there are expected to be some nasty fouls and cards brandished. This derby is expected to be no different. In 13 of the last 19 Seville derbies, there has been a card shown before the 22nd minute.

The referee on Thursday is Antonio Mateu Lahoz – known for getting a card out early on in games. His only previous Seville derby appearance saw the first card given out in the 12th minute.

But the sportsbooks seem to have noticed this and adjusted their prices accordingly. While we think there will be cards, it’s worth taking a shot at betting against the cards simply because of the great odds given for the under.

Sevilla vs. Real Betis Picks

With the home advantage seemingly less of a factor ahead of Thursday, we still think top-four favorites Sevilla will have enough in the tank to overcome a Betis side playing for very little.

A fiesty derby match, a lack of match sharpness and a strict referee with a track record for brandishing cards in this fixture all point towards a high number of cards on Thursday. However, the cards odds at DraftKings seem uncharacteristically low and we think there will be less than 7 cards (at a great price).

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