San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview, Prediction & Best Bets for October 21

Rob Senior previews San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies and shares his best betting picks for NLCS Game 3.

Rob’s MLB Picks Record: 8-3 (72.7%)

The Padres and Phillies square off in Game 3 of the best-of-seven National League Championship Series on Friday, with the winner advancing to the 2022 World Series against the American League champions.

The Phillies, the National League’s 6th seed, will host three games this weekend. The Padres are the No. 6 seed in National League and will host games 6-7 if necessary.

Here’s a look at Friday’s game (Odds at BetMGM):

Date & TimeFriday, October 21, 7:35 P.M. Eastern
MoneylineSan Diego Padres (-115) at Philadelphia Phillies (-105)
RunlinePadres -1.5 (+145)/Phillies +1.5 (-175)
TotalOver 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115)
WhereCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Weather56 degrees, less than 5% chance of rain
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The series is currently tied at a game apiece.

San Diego Padres Preview

Joe Musgrove has come up big for the Padres so far this postseason, getting the win in game 3 at Citi Field to close out the Mets in the wild-card round and limiting the Dodgers to two runs in the deciding game of the divisional series. The Phillies’ homefield advantage clearly rattle Atlanta in the last series; Musgrove figures to handle the environment much better after what he faced in New York.

Musgrove took a loss against Philadelphia on June 23, allowing six runs over six innings.

San Diego’s offense broke open Game 2 and potentially saved the series as Josh Bell, Brandon Drury and Manny Machado all went deep.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Ranger Suarez hasn’t pitched in 10 days since opening the divisional series in Atlanta with a brief – but effective – outing in a 7-6 Phillies win. On that day, Suarez did allow five walks over 3.1 innings, and a repeat performance would be ill-advised against the Padres’ offense.

Suarez got the win head-to-head against Musgrove on June 23, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings.

The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber got untracked with a mammoth 488-foot blast in Game 1, but the offense was a bit lethargic outside of the second inning of Game 2. Returning to Citizens Bank Park, where they’re averaging 8.5 runs per game this postseason, figures to help the NL East representatives.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

So far, Philadelphia’s postseason strategy has gone like this: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola… then hope the offense can do enough until Wheeler/Nola pitch again.

It’s worked just fine – the Phils are 3-0 in games NOT started by Wheeler/Nola this postseason.

Can the trend continue against Musgrove? It looks like an even matchup – but we know the offensive portion of the strategy won’t change, and these next two games in Philadelphia may be about outscoring your opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick October 21

Pick: San Diego Padres/Philadelphia Phillies Over 7.5 (-105)

Padres vs Phillies Betting Pick
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