Our preview, betting prediction and expert betting picks for San Diego Padres vs New York Mets on October 7, 2022.
The Padres make the cross-country trip to start a three-game series with the Mets Friday night in the National League Wild Card round. This follows the early games on Friday’s slate, which includes Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals – click here to see our betting preview of that one.
The winner of this game, however, will advance to the NL Divisional Playoffs, starting Tuesday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
Here’s a look at Friday’s game:
| Date & Time | Friday, October 7, 2022 at 8:05 P.M. Eastern |
| Moneyline | San Diego Padres (+136) at New York Mets (-162) |
| Runline | Padres +1.5 (-184)/Mets -1.5 (+152) |
| Total | Over 6 (-120)/Under 6 (-102) |
| Where | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Weather | 62 degrees, less than 5% chance of rain |
Season Series: So far in 2022, the Padres lead the Mets 4-2 in head-to-head matchups
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA)
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San Diego Padres Preview
It’s a heck of a pitching matchup to start the series, as San Diego righty Yu Darvish gets the ball for the visitors.
Darvish finished the season with six wins in his last seven starts, but most impressive is his 2-0 record against the Mets this season with a miniscule 0.64 ERA.
San Diego’s offensive MVP is 3B Manny Machado, whose .897 OPS was third-best in the National League this season.
New York Mets Preview
Max Scherzer needs no introduction among baseball fans. The three-time Cy Young Award winner had his season twice interrupted by injuries but combines with Jacob deGrom to give the Mets a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Scherzer took the loss in his lone appearance against San Diego this season, going six innings and allowing two runs back on July 22.
The Mets figure to be without right fielder Starling Marte in this series, increasing the focus on National League batting champion Jeff McNeil (.326 average) and first baseman Pete Alonso, who led the NL with 131 RBIs this season.
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Prediction October 7, 2022
Be careful about placing too much emphasis on Darvish’s numbers against the Mets this year. The games were played in June and July respectively, prior to the Mets acquiring DH Daniel Vogelbach, whose .879 OPS against right-handed pitchers gives New York an upgrade to the middle of their lineup.
That said, this line started as high as +168 for San Diego, and dropped almost a full 50 cents on the money line as of Thursday morning before settling at +136.
With the value on both sides gone, we look to the smallest total we’ve seen this year in MLB, and the fact the Mets offense ranks #1 in MLB against right-handed pitchers. They’re due to do some damage against Darvish, and if San Diego can get to Scherzer at all, this number seems to be in range.
Prediction: San Diego Padres/New York Mets over 6 (-120)
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Picks for October 7, 2022
Pick 1: San Diego Padres/New York Mets over 6 runs (-120 at BetMGM)
Bonus Bet: As mentioned, Vogelbach smashes righties, and went 2-3 this year against Darvish. He also sees more pitches per at bat than any hitter in the National League!
Assuming Darvish pitches his customary 6-7 innings, that should mean at least three plate appearances for the big DH, and we’ll take a leap of faith in his ability to have a solid night at this price.
Pick 2: Daniel Vogelbach over 1.5 total bases (+220 at FanDuel)
