The Premier League is back in action along with Wag’s picks for each game of match day 5, as he looks to get on a hot streak with a betting record of 20 – 23. It’s time to get serious.
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Welcome back, everybody! I hope the bank account is still in the green for another slate of bets as Football is back in full swing. But first, Hey Red Devils! Yea you horned ugly fuck! Listen here man, I’m done. I (clap) am (clap) done (clap) with (clap) your (clap) shit. I’m so done looking at your 4-0 win against Chelsea and thinking that firepower will come back. Chelsea was the worst team in the Premier League that day, get over it. Now that rant is out of the way, we went 5 – 6 after match day 4. Watford finally got their first point against Newcastle along with a new manager who can help put Watford’s woes behind them. Along with Manchester United’s disappointment, betting the Under’s is what hurt me ultimately on my match day 4 predictions. I went against the hot over, thinking it was going to cool down. The over has hit in 6 more games than the Under so far this season, soooooo will I learn from my mistakes? Probably not.
The Over is 23 – 17 right now. This is going to be concerning because the oddsmakers will allocate more O/U at 3 goals if this trend continues. It’s time to follow the treasure ladies and gentleman. After 4 straight top 6 fixtures, things have calmed down this coming weekend with Newcastle visiting Anfield on Saturday. Leicester City and Crystal Palace look to continue their impressive form as they both face tough opponents in Manchester United and Tottenham with Leicester heading to Old Trafford. Watford looks to survive against Arsenal and Aston Villa will host West Ham to cap off match day 5. Here are your lines.
MATCHDAY 5 BETTING LINES
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United
Liverpool took care of business in Burnley winning 3-0 with Mane and Firmino landing on the scorer’s sheet. Deflect your attention from the media regarding Salah’s and Mane’s relationship because if there is anybody that can fix a conflict, it’s manager Jurgen Klopp. The International break will help cool things down as well. Newcastle comes from beating the Spurs to tying the last team in the table of Watford. Watford was the better team in my eyes. But Newcastle United are positioned in their usual spot on the table hoping other results keep them out of the relegation zone.
- Newcastle has failed to win at Anfield since 1995
- Liverpool didn’t concede a goal at Anfield vs. Newcastle last 2 fixtures
- Last Fixture May ’19: Newcastle 2 : 3 Liverpool
That would be one big plate to finish if Newcastle could pull this upset off. That bet is for the dreamers that will turn that dream into a nightmare. I expect nothing less than a Liverpool domination as the oddsmakers allocate the Over/Under to 3.5 goals. Liverpool scored 4 goals against Norwich City, who beat Newcastle 3-1 second game into the season. I think the Over 3.5 goals is a no brainer to bet, and it will only make it better if Newcastle gets a penalty call or catch Liverpool sleeping early. Either way, bet the Over.
Over 3.5 Goals +100 with SugarHouse
Brighton vs. Burnley
Brighton host the Clarets as both teams played the best teams in the Premier League two weeks ago. Burnley only lost 3-0 to Liverpool and Brighton lost 4-0 to Manchester City. Nothing else was expected from both clubs as the powerhouses made their presence known. But it’s a new weekend and both teams had plenty of time to prepare for each other. Brighton and Burnley couldn’t be separated playing in 5 consecutive draws before last season, where Burnley took care of business both home and away. Burnley gets some breathing room after playing Liverpool, Wolves, and Arsenal and are looking to win since the first game of the season against Southampton.
- Last fixture: Brighton 1 : 3 Burnley
- Chris Wood scored 2 goals in the prior fixture and scored an Own goal vs. Liverpool.
I’m basing this game off of the strength of schedule so far, and Burnley will put those few tough weeks behind them. They will walk into the dressing room with confidence knowing their potential against Brighton is great. Brighton’s advantage is their recent decent form however, that loss to Southampton puts an ugly taste in my mouth. But Burnley wont have Danny Drinkwater or Gudmundsson, who are crucial to the Burnley lineup. With those loses, I would bet Brighton Money Line.
Brighton Money Line+120
Manchester United vs. Leicester City
Ole and his struggling Red Devils will be looking to regain some confidence when Jamie Vardy and his Foxes stroll into Old Trafford. United dominated Southampton but struggled to find the target along including my trusting issues with the Red Devil’s. Leicester took care of business in the King Power Stadium when Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth came to town, winning 3-1 along with a brace from Jamie Vardy. Leicester City are hot, sexy, and god damn gorgeous with their football as they stay in a champions league position in the table. Manchester United need to make changes otherwise we may see another manager get sacked this year.
- Leicester are winless in last 9 fixtures vs. Manchester United
- Leicester concede 3 goals on average at Old Trafford (since 2015)
- Last Fixture: LEI 0:1 MU Shots – LEI 17 (6) / MU 10 (6)
This is the first time that Manchester United’s line is a minus. It was a +130 money line for 4 straight weeks which was like buying Lays chips. You are excited you’re going to eat good chips, but get bamboozled by all the air you bought in the bag. Besides calling Lays out on their bullshit, the same will go for Manchester United. The minus money line is disgusting enough for me to bet the Leicester money line because James Maddison and Jamie Vardy will silence Old Trafford. Daniel James is a special player for United, but he can not carry the team and score every game…Yet!
Leicester City Money Line +380 with SugarHouse
Sheffield United vs. Southampton
Sheffield host Southampton on the weekend as both teams come off of draws against Manchester United and Chelsea. Sheffield had the more impressive draw in Chelsea as an angel blessed the newly-promoted Blades as Kurt Zouma’s own goal confirmed the point for Sheffield. Southampton’s draw against Manchester United showed a great defensive game plan, especially playing with 10 men for the last 17 minutes. Southampton will be without left-back Kevin Danso due to suspension. Both teams are in a similar form which could mean for a potentially boring, low scoring fixture.
- Last Fixture: SHU 1:0 SOU (Dec. 2014)
- Sheffield scored more goals than Southampton so far this season
This game is as boring as this preview, not really, but it really depends on if Nathan Redmond, Danny Ings, Callum Wilson, or even old boy Billy Sharp will have their shooting boots on because this game could be decided by a corner kick or set-piece goal. In that case, Vestergaard will have to come through for Southampton as I think they will be the winners of this fixture. But I have a strong feeling that this will be a tied game, so I’m rolling the safe card out and betting the Under.
Under 2.5 Goals -155 with SugarHouse
Another London derby is on the schedule for the Spurs as the Eagles of Crystal Palace travel across the Themes for a visit. Tottenham failed to keep their first-half lead in the North London Derby as Aubamayang secured a point for the Gunners. A struggling Tottenham team looked impressive against an in-form Arsenal team. Crystal Palace took care of business at home when Villa came to visit, paying the ultimate price of defeat. Jordan Ayew took advantage of a 10-man Villa squad, continuing their impressive form sitting in 4th place above Arsenal. This could be the game Tottenham needs to boost morale as they have won their last eight Premier League games against Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last 7 away PL games vs. Spurs
- Spurs have lost 2 of last 4 home PL games
- Crystal Palace last 5 PL games vs. Top 6, they beat City, Arsenal, and United
A bunch of factors are pulling strings out of my brain for this game. I did not think Crystal Palace would be a +850 underdog versus a struggling Tottenham team. It’s hard to ignore Crystal Palace’s 2019 form, but people aren’t trusting Palace for this game and are getting cold feet. FUN FACT: Tottenham hasn’t scored more than 2 goals versus Crystal Palace at home. Crystal Palace hasn’t scored an away goal in the Premier League against Tottenham since ’04. Although Crystal Palace did beat the Spurs away during the FA Cup in 2016, Tottenham did beat Palace during their current form. I’m pulling the crazy card here. Bet the Under 2.5 goals and, the Crystal Palace Money Line.
Crystal Palace Money Line +850 & Under 2.5 +130 with SugarHouse
Wolverhampton vs. Chelsea
Wolverhampton Wanderer’s host Chelsea in their match day 5 fixture on Saturday. Although Chelsea’s Abraham and Mason are creating good headlines, the results are doing the complete opposite after drawing with Sheffield United before the international break. Lampard and his crew need to come away with a result against a damaged Wolves team who will be without Willy Boly, crucial to Nuno’s back-three. Richarlison’s cracker five minutes after a Wolves equalizer must have been a mental blow for the Wolves. It couldn’t have happened at any better time as some Wolves players reset their minds during the international break.
- 0 of 13 top-flight fixtures between the two have ended level
- Wolves are the only team yet to lead a game this season
- Chelsea was winless in both fixtures vs. Wolves last season
This will be a very closely contested game between the Wolves and Blues as the Wolves are more in form than the Blues, but Chelsea also just come off a draw making it unlikely to happen in a consecutive fixture. As long as David Luiz plays 10% defense, and the two youngsters continue to perform, I don’t see any other result than that of a Chelsea win.
Chelsea Money Line +150 with SugarHouse
Norwich City vs. Manchester City
Manchester City and their billion-dollar franchise look to continue their offensive obliteration against Norwich City who looks to climb up the ladder. Norwich is trying to avoid a 3-game skid after losing to West Ham 2-0. West Ham attacked better giving Norwich’s Pukki little, to no opportunities in front of net. Meanwhile, at the other end of the standings, Manchester City did Manchester City things against Brighton, continuing to hammer the Over at every game they have played thus far.
- Man.City has hit EVERY over this season. (Overs were 3.5)
- Man.City all time have won 39 games and lost 9 vs. Norwich
- Guys, It’s F**king Man.City
If you have come this far down this post, you must be looking for a convincing factor to bet on Norwich in some shape or form. Well, then I would say good thing ‘Football is Back’ because you would have to stop gambling Premier League Football. Either way, hammer the Over!
Over 3.5 -110 with SugarHouse
Bournemouth vs. Everton
Bournemouth and Everton suffered match day 4 defeats as both teams look to come back from the international break with three points. Before that, Everton’s Richarlison saved my Toffees scoring 5 mins after Wolverhampton’s equalizing goal beating the Wolves. Bournemouth traveled to the King Power Stadium where Leicester City took control of the game early, despite Callum Wilson’s equalizer three minutes after Vardy’s first goal. Bournemouth needs to get a grip so that they don’t continue to fall into the relegation zone, but an Everton’s defense will be tough to burst through on Saturday.
- Bournemouth has beaten Everton 2 of 9 fixtures
- Bournemouth has kept 1 clean sheet of those 9 games
- Everton have won once in Bournemouth
As a die-hard 19/20 Toffees fan, this game has a tie written all over it. But we aren’t betting those as I’m not ‘That Guy’. I’m already ‘That Guy’ betting the Crystal Palace money line. Anyways Bournemouth has yet to score more than 1 goal in a game this season. So it really comes to whether Bournemouth come to play, or wether Everton’s attack will continue to struggle. I’m going to bet as a die-hard 19/20 Toffees fan, pick the Everton Money Line.
Everton Money Line +125 with SugarHouse
Watford vs. Arsenal
Watford stole the headlines over the international break announcing the departure of manager Javi Garcia who brought Watford dead last in the standings tallying 1 point through four games. And nothing tingles my balls more than betting on a team with a new manager. I’ll get into that in a few, but Arsenal came out of the North London Derby with a draw in what seemed a more dominant performance from the Gunners. Emery’s signing of Pepe proves to be worth the money as the Ivory Coast international looks comfortable wearing the Gunners crest.
- Since 2015, Watford have won once at home vs. Arsenal
- Arsenal have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets vs. Arsenal
- Arsenal was the last team to lose to a team (Southampton) who appointed a new manager mid-season (18/19)
In case you live under a rock, Watford’s Garcia has been sacked who is being succeeded by former Watford manager Quique Sanchez Flores. A new manager in the Premier League has the best luck when it comes to managing their first game. In the past 2 years with the team whose manager made his debut, they have won 2 out of 3 games. WITH THE EXCEPTION to Southampton, when Ralph Hasenhuutl lost to Cardiff but beat Arsenal after a full week with the squad. Quique Flores has been with his side for more than a week along with reconnecting with some former players. I can not not go for Watford hehe.
Watford Money Line +259 with SugarHouse
Aston Villa vs. West Ham United
Aston Villa play hosts to West Ham United as they look to cap off match day 5 with a bang! Aston Villa was beaten by the hands of Crystal Palace, landing the knockout punch of Mahmoud Hassan’s suspension into Monday’s fixture. West Ham managed to cool down the Finish beast of Pukki as the Hammers kept a clean sheet winning 2-0 at home against Norwich. This will be the first time the two teams face each other since the 15/16 season where West Ham managed a win and a draw in both fixtures.
- Aston Villa have scored in 3 of 4 PL games this season
- West Ham conceded more goals than Villa this season
For a Monday fixture, this has the potential to be mildly exciting. And I saw that with very little confidence. It’s the only Premier League game, all eyes are on the two teams featured, and both want to play perfect soccer. That won’t be the case for Aston Villa. The Hammer’s Sebastian Haller has transitioned nicely into the Premier League after being a thug for the best club in the world of Eintracht Frankfurt. The Frenchman has 3 goals in 3 games. Bet on the Hammers Money Line.
West Ham United Money Line +165 with SugarHouse