Premier League 19/20 MatchDay 4: The 198th North London Derby and Watford’s Pursuit for Points

We made some great improvements from matchday 2 into matchday 3 as we finally end a weekend in the profit margin’s going 6-5. Manchester United and Tottenham suffer shocking defeats as the season is still in its early stages. Liverpool were their usual selves shooting down any chances the Gunners thought they might have had against the Reds, Manchester City continues to steamroll through, and Watford is starting to look at their ‘DEFCON 5’ button losing three consecutive Premier League games.

August has come to an end which means the European transfer window will close September 2nd before we head into the International break. AKA we will have boring (but profitable) European Championship Qualifying’s next weekend. Because of this, the Premier League has given us yet ANOTHER top 6 matchup of the North London Derby. DJ Khalid did not want to be featured for this week as he is a Chelsea supporter (inaccurate information). Other than the North London Derby, Watford is looking for their first point and Liverpool travel to Burnley to headline the rest of MatchDay 4.


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Southampton vs. Manchester United

The penalty shanks of Manchester will travel to the coasts of Southampton as both teams look for 3 points after match-day 4. Southampton come off an unconvincing win against a 10 man Brighton as Nathan Redmond scored in the 91st minute to seal Southampton’s first win of the season. However, history was made at Old Trafford with Crystal Palace recording their first ever Premier League win in the ‘Theatre of Dreams’. Palace made the most of their opportunities as the Red Devils dominated the game, but recent scoring and penalty-conversion issues are haunting a United team that had the BEST start to their Premier League campaign beating Chelsea. Unfortunately, you can’t play Chelsea every week. Southampton haven’t beaten Manchester United in their last 7 matchup’s.


  • Southampton haven’t beaten United at HOME since 2003
  • Previous 7 fixtures, 17 goals were scored
  • Previous 2 fixtures results: SOU 2:2 MU / MU 3:2 SOU

The past 2 articles I wrote about Manchester United, I guaranteed a victory. I will take some responsibility for using those words as it clearly affects United’s form. So, I will NOT guarantee a Manchester United win but I THINK they may win this matchup versus the Saints of Southampton. Although it has been a battle for United to win in Southampton as of late, I THINK the Red Devils could pull this off. They need to change their narrative quickly before they fall out of the top 6.

Manchester United Money Line at +105 with SugarHouse

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa

Aston Villa visits Crystal Palace for their Saturday morning fixture as both teams look to start a winning streak. Crystal Palace comes off a shocking victory against Manchester United after Patrick van Aanholt 93rd minute winner created history beating United at Old Trafford for the first time in Palace’s history. Aston Villa defended their home against an offensively struggling Everton after El Ghazi’s 95th minute goal to secure Villa’s first win of their season. These two teams last faced each other in 2016 where Aston Villa came away with the win at Villa Park.


  • Aston Villa won 1 of last 13 away games vs. Palace
  • Since February 2019, only City and Liverpool have won more games than Palace
  • Villa haven’t won a Premier League away game since 2015 (19 games)

I think everybody was shocked to see when Crystal Palace’s stats showed they have won more games in the Premier League than any club since this early calendar year (except for Man. City and Liverpool). The loss to Sheffield United was quickly forgotten after beating Manchester United. I still can’t keep my eye off that crazy Palace stat, which has convinced me enough to lock in the Crystal Palace Money Line.

Crystal Palace Money Line at +120 with SugarHouse

Chelsea vs. Sheffield United

Sheffield United travel to London as Chelsea plays another promoted team with the Blues looking to show more dominating results than in previous games. Sheffield lost to a tough Leicester City squad where Harvey Barnes scored the winner 8 minutes after a Sheffield’s McBurnie equalizer. Super Frank’s Blues has been pumping young blood into the team’s veins with youngsters Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount stealing the headlines. The two took matters into their own hands making sure that Lampard wouldn’t be embarrassed by Norwich. I’m not giving Norwich enough credit but if Norwich won the game, the headlines would be about Chelsea losing and not Norwich winning. A little history lesson, these two teams last faced in 2006 where Chelsea was victorious in both fixtures including not conceding a goal.


  • Sheffield last win at Stamford Bridge was in 1992
  • Sheffield United has conceded in last 30 games vs. Chelsea
  • Chelsea have only lost 3 of 80 home Premier League games against newly-promoted teams

Obviously, Chelsea will win this matchup as Sheffield have a terrible record at Stamford Bridge. The last 4 fixtures the two teams have played were in 06/07 and 93/94. The iPhone wasn’t even invented then, let that sink in. I want to focus on the Over/Under 2.5 goals the oddsmakers provided us with because a -300 Chelsea Money Line isn’t worth it personally. I love Abraham’s and Mount’s young energy as they put their foot through every ball and battle through every tackle. The Over has been killing the Under 17-13 so I’m going to continue that trend betting the Over 2.5.

Over 2.5 Goals at -152 with SugarHouse

Newcastle United vs. Watford

Pointless Watford travels to the north as they face Newcastle after their impressive victory over Tottenham. Newcastle parked the bus for 73 minutes of the game after Joelinton’s first-half goal. Newcastle completed 190 passes compared to Tottenham’s 763 as Paul Dummet was bringing his inner ‘Great Wall of China’ to the backline. Watford is still looking for their first point in a woeful start to their season. After a strong first half from Watford against West Ham, Sebastian Haller put 2 away to make sure Watford stayed at 0 points. But Newcastle has avoided defeat against Watford in both games last season winning one game and a stalemate in the other.


  • Watford won 3 of last 4 away matches vs. Newcastle
  • Watford lost last 6 PL games (Agg. 3-16)
  • Newcastle lost 3 of last 4 PL games at St. James’ Park

This is a weird game to bet on because there are quite a lot of factors making it unpredictable. Do I want to see if that Newcastle spark will turn into flames? Is Watford going to sniff some smelling salts for superstition’s sake?!?! I have to go with the current form of Newcastle United. Watford is hammering shots that aren’t finding the target and Newcastle got a clean sheet out of being hammered with shots. Watford’s ineffectiveness in front of the net is the conclusion of betting the Newcastle money line.

Newcastle United Money Line at +155 with SugarHouse

Manchester City vs. Brighton

The Seagulls of Brighton fly up north to visit the Cityzens of Manchester as Brighton look to bounce back without striker Florin Andone due to suspension. Brighton’s 2-0 loss to Southampton was quickly forgotten after a Tuesday Carabao Cup match beating Bristol City 2-1. Thus gaining some confidence heading into the Etihad Stadium on Saturday. Manchester City is continuing their ways beating Bournemouth 1-3 away crushing the Over I did not predict. But Brighton is walking into a torturous environment as City are unstoppable at home in the Premier League. U-N-S-T-O-P-P-A-B-L-E.


  • Brighton never won vs. Man. City at the Etihad
  • Man. City are 17 PL games unbeaten
  • Brighton have won 1 point from 36 in PL away games vs. Top 6

If you think Brighton is going to win this game I applaud you. You still have some imagination and creativity left in that brain which is just great to see, kind of like my second cousin who is 7. For us adults and realists, Manchester City will obviously crush Brighton including betting the Over as the Over has been a winner so far this season. Bet the Over 3.5 goals!

Over 3.5 Goals at -132 with SugarHouse

West Ham United vs. Norwich City

Norwich City travels to London as they pay a visit to West Ham. Both teams played in high scoring games last week with West Ham traveling home from Watford with 3 points. New signing Sebastian Haller saw himself on the scoring board twice making an impact on his new team. Norwich caught Chelsea off their heels in their impressive 3-2 defeat. Norwich is receiving a lot of credit with their performance, as they should, with Teemu Pukki continuing his scoring habits that started in the Championship last year. However, West Ham hasn’t lost at home versus Norwich since 1989, where they played at the old Upton Park.


  • Norwich has won 1 of last 11 fixtures vs. West Ham
  • Norwich are winless in last 18 top-flight visits to London
  • West Ham won 4 of last 6 games in the PL

Norwich has a tough task ahead of them as West Ham are avoiding to lose back-to-back home games since early last season. Last two fixtures Norwich and Ham played ended in 2-2 draws, but that was back in 2016. If West Ham is fit after their midweek clash in the Carabao Cup, then West Hame will have the upper hand in this game as they are the favorites. But I love the Over/Under 3.5 goals because usually that is allocated for the Top 6! All in all, I think this game will result in a tie, but we aren’t betting tie’s anymore so I’m going with the Under 3.5 goals. Lock it.

Under 3.5 Goals at -157 with SugarHouse

Leicester City vs. Bournemouth

After a Cityzens beatdown, Bournemouth travels to Leicester to visit the Foxes for their matchday 4 fixture. Harry Wilson scored a stunning freekick before the half but proved little motivation as Sergio Aguero put the game away in the 64th minute. Leicester took care of business against newly-promoted Sheffield United as Vardy and Harvey Barnes go on the scorer’s sheet for the Foxes. Leicester is sitting 1 point in front of Manchester United for 4th place, but keep your pants on people, they aren’t winning the league any time soon. Leicester was victorious at home against Bournemouth last season winning 2-0.


  • Leicester are unbeaten in last 6 home league games vs. Bournemouth
  • Bournemouth have lost 1 of 8 PL matches against Leicester
  • Bournemouth won 3 of last 6 away PL matches

These ‘mid-table’ clashes are weird. It’s a hit or miss. It’s either a 4-3 thriller or a 0-0 snooze fest. The numbers suggest Leicester City is unstoppable at home and Bournemouth is decent away, even though they were coming off a 9 away game losing streak. I’m going to regret this, but double down on this fixture. Based off of their previous 3 results at the King Power stadium (2-0; 1-1; 1-1) I will bet the Under 2.5 goals on top of a Leicester City victory as I believe Jamie Vardy can give the Foxes another 3 points.

Leicester Money Line -150 & Under 2.5 Goals +133 at SugarHouse

Burnley vs. Liverpool

Burnley host an in-form team of Liverpool to cap off Saturday’s fixtures. Burnley was robbed of 3 points after video assistant referee (VAR) confirmed a penalty for the Wolves in the 97th minute ending the match in a 1-1 draw. Wolves were the more dominant team against Burnley, but that has been Burnley’s story thus far in the season. Take a beating and make the most of their opportunities. Liverpool comes off a dominating victory against top-six rivals Arsenal beating the Gunners 3-1 at Anfield. Mo Salah seems to have overcome his fear of scoring against the top six putting 2 goals past keeper Leno. Liverpool is also on a 12-game win streak, 1 win to match Kenny Dalglish’s club record of 13 wins in a row.


  • Burnley lost 8 of last 10 vs. Liverpool
  • Since April, Burnley have won 1 of last 7 PL games
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 20 PL games and lost 1 in last 42 PL games

Liverpool is -335 favorites already putting this game to bed. Liverpool has scored 9 goals so far this season, only conceding 3 goals. Although Burnley also conceded 3 goals this season, that tally will rise with Mane, Salah, and Firmino most likely finding the back of the net. The Over’s are popular thus far this season, but I’m already betting 2 Under’s this weekend and I’m pulling my hair out. Do I place a 3rd Under bet? Fuck it, Under 2.5 Goals.

Under 2.5 goals at +128 with SugarHouse

Everton vs. Wolves

The shitty Toffees are hosting the hungry Wolves as both teams look to start a winning streak. I did not expect the hardship an Everton fan has to endure, and only 3 games have been played so far. It was another dominant game where nothing could be shown for as Everton lost away to Aston Villa 2-0. The Wolves are on the stalemate rollercoaster drawing all 3 of their Premier League matches so far. A 97th minute VAR prayer helped the Wolves steal a point from Burnley last week. However, the Wolves are looking for their first back-to-back top-flight victory against Everton since 1979.


  • Everton kept a clean sheet in last 6 home Premier League games
  • Everton has the worst attack. but best defense so far this season

I would flip a coin to guess which of these two teams will win. It has 0-0 written all over, in my mind. But the last e results at Goodison Park have seen more than 3 goals fall in each. However, both teams are struggling to score and Everton is defensively more sound than the Wolves (more tackles). The Under 2.5 goals is the smart bet for your Sunday morning.

Under 2.5 Goals at -155 with SugarHouse

The 198th edition of the North London Derby will finish this weeks slate of Premier League games as both teams look to bounce back from last week’s defeats. Liverpool literally cut up Arsenal’s ass cheeks and handed it to them, accepting those cheeks after the third goal. Tottenham dominated a losing game after Newcastle’s Joelinton’s goal was enough to defeat the Spurs. The North London Derby is just one of the many Premier League rivalries with a rich history. The derby separates itself from the others as being known the fiercest derbies in Europe. Arsenal has won 18 more games than Tottenham with the sides drawing 52 times.


  • Tottenham won 1 of last 26 PL away games vs. Arsenal (W1, D10, L15)
  • 5 of last 14 goals scored were penalties
  • Arsenal haven’t lost back-to-back home London derby games since 2006 (Last game vs. Crystal Palace)

The North London Derby will have a winner and it will see Tottenham winning at the Emirates. The Spurs need to come out to prove themselves that they won’t lose to another Newcastle-esque team for the remainder of the season. Although most of the attention is going towards Pochettino as his job is being put into question with media outlets looking to point fingers. All-in-all I think Arsenal’s woeful defense won’t stand a chance to Tottenham. Tottenham Hotspur Money Line is your winner!

Tottenham Money Line at +180 with SugarHouse

Wag Out!

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