After a crazy rollercoaster ride that included Billy Sharp’s scrappy late equalizer, City’s and Liverpool’s dominance, and the disappearance of Everton, Southampton, and Chelsea concluded our Match Day 1 bets record to 5-5, breaking even for the first weekend. This isn’t the ideal start I was hoping for, but we have 37 other Match Day’s to make us rich even though I did profit after predicting some underdog bets. The Over’s were the winners last week winning 60% of the bets which is giving me an early indication that I’m going to have a new best friend if the Over continues to play nice. A few key matchups this weekend as Tottenham visit Manchester City, Liverpool go to Southampton and the Red Devils travel to Wolverhampton as I preview and predict Match Day 2 for you.
MATCHDAY 2 BETTING ODDS
Arsenal vs. Burnley
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Burnley must have read my Match Day 1 prediction because they were motivated to make sure I was wrong after defeating Southampton 3-0. Burnley took advantage of Southampton’s defensive mistakes by scoring all three goals in the second half. Arsenal struggled in Newcastle as they managed to beat the Magpies 1-0 after a defensive mistake from Jetro Willems, but still have much to prove as Unai Emery’s men look for a more solid performance than against Newcastle.
- Arsenal has 10 consecutive wins vs. Burnley
- Arsenal scores an average of 3 goals at home vs. Burnley
- Burnley passed the ball 300 fewer times than Arsenal in Match Day 1
- Last Fixture: Burnley 1:3 Arsenal / May 12th 2019
Although Arsenal didn’t look great in Newcastle, coming into the Emirates will have a whole different feel when they open their stadium to the 19/20 season. You see it in the stats above, there is no reason for Arsenal to lose against Burnley. Buying Nicolas Pepe could pay the wages for 80% of Burnley players which asserts Arsenal’s dominance even more. It depends on whether Aubameyang and Lacazette feel like scoring goals and how well Burnley can counter on Arsenal’s mistakes. The oddsmakers predict the over/under at 2.5 goals. I’m glad I remember simple math because, after my calculations, Arsenal scores 3 goals on average against Burnley. Bet the Over 2.5 (-159)!
Over 2.5 Goals at (-159) with SugarHouse
Southampton vs. Liverpool
Liverpool thrillingly introduced the new Premier League in thrilling fashion defeating Norwich by the end of the first half. Liverpool picked up right where they left off as Mo Salah continues to score against Non-Top 6 teams. Southampton was set back after suffering a troubling defeat in Burnley losing 3-0 making me look like a fool betting Southampton’s Money Line. Well Southampton, not only did you lose 3 points, but you also lost some brownie points from me. Southampton used to be a problem for Liverpool before the signing of Mo Salah. Ever since then the Reds have been dominant against the Saints.
- Liverpool won 4 straight matchups vs. Southampton
- Liverpool outscored Southampton 11-1 in last 4 matchups
- Liverpool > Southampton
The clear winner of the day will be Liverpool, but that is too safe of a bet as I’m not playing the role of Safety Sally, I’m Wrecking Wag! I’m going to bet against Southampton for a few weeks because there is some serious defensive juju that the Saints have to figure out. The Over’s were very nice to me on Match Day 1 as I will return the favor by betting the Over in this fixture. The oddsmakers allocated the O/U at 2.5 goals at -157 for the Over. Book the Over.
Over 2.5 Goals at -157 with SugarHouse
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. West Ham United
Brighton came out swinging with a knockout punch to Watford last Saturday capitalizing on the Hornets’ woeful defensive miscues. Although Watford had more opportunities, Brighton made the most of theirs deservedly winning 3-0. West Ham United have just checked themselves out of the hospital after taking a brutal beating from champions Manchester City. The Hammers had nothing going on offensively creating 5 shots compared to City’s 14. Surprisingly, Brighton has been on the winning side against West Ham as of late being unbeaten against the Hammers in their last 4 matchups. Brighton has been offensively better in their head-to-head matchups against West Ham and want to continue their flow from Watford going into Match Day 2.
- Brighton’s unbeaten streak vs. West Ham: 3-0 ; 3-1; 1-0; 2-2
- Brighton scored 2 goals from 3 shots.
- West Ham passed the ball 400 times vs. City. 300 of them came from kickoff possessions (probably, but probably not).
Here is why Brighton & Hove Albion is supposed to win this game. They beat Watford away by 3 goals. West Ham’s morale is low after being embarrassed by City. Brighton has been very successful against the Hammers in the past 2 years, but this is where the universe thrives. Everything sounds good and looks good on paper, but the universe is going to give West Ham United this win because that is how the gambling world and the universe collaborate together “Whatever makes sense to you, don’t listen to it”, As much as I love Brighton in this game, bet West Ham United Money Line and then if all else fails, you can punch me in the throat for second-guessing. I would invite it if Brighton wins.
West Ham Money Line at +190 with SugarHouse
Everton vs. Watford
Two of the most disappointing teams from Match Day 1 face off on Saturday as both Everton and Watford look to bounce back after not meeting expectations. Watford was demolished at home against the Seagulls as Everton played a goalless draw at Crystal Palace. Both teams were offensively troubled as they couldn’t find the target. Everton’s Schneiderlin will be absent in the game after receiving a red card on Saturday. Both these teams didn’t win my bets but I really love my Everton squad, so I say ‘F**k You!’ to Watford.
- Both teams are looking for their first goal of the season
- Everton have lost 2 from last 3 fixtures vs. Watford
- Watford have never won in Goodison Park
As a Toffees fan since 2019, I have all my faith in Everton as they welcome Everton fans to the 19/20 season. With Schneiderlin suspended due to a red card, Jean-Philippe Gbamin will be the likely replacement. If last weeks loss to Brighton wasn’t an early wakeup call for Watford to pick it up, this game will surely make sure the Hornets are awake. Everton will take their first 3 points home after beating Watford 2-0.
Everton Money Line at -139 with SugarHouse
Norwich City vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle visits Norwich City after both sides were on the losing ends of their Match Day 1 fixtures. Newcastle’s game plan to beat Arsenal on the counter almost worked before Aubameyang picked off a pass leading to Arsenal’s 1-0 victory. Norwich’s game against Liverpool was over within the first 30 minutes of the match being played and became the source of confidence for the Reds to carry into Match Day 2. That is not the ideal way a promoted team wants to return to the Premier League. Last few times Norwich and Newcastle went head-to-head was when Newcastle was just relegated to the Championship where Newcastle won the first meeting 4-3 and the reverse fixture ending in a Tie back in 2017.
- Newcastle outshot Arsenal 9-8
- Norwich is a second-half team
- These Key Stats are the worst
Norwich may still need some time to find their feet in the Premier League and gather all their woeful mistakes against Liverpool and potentially whats upcoming against Newcastle. The oddsmakers have made Newcastle kind of a heavy underdog against a promoted Norwich side. I understand that fans love the Norwich offense, but Newcastle overwhelms the experience than that of Norwich’s. For that, the Newcastle Money line is a sure winner.
Newcastle Money line at +230 with SugarHouse
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Aston Villa looks to continue their impressive performance from Tottenham against a Bournemouth side that suffered a last-minute equalizer from Billy Sharp’s Sheffield United. Aston Villa held their own for some time against Tottenham until the Spurs starting putting shots on target as Bournemouth was struggling to get shots on target, but created beautiful build-up plays that just weren’t rewarded. This is a rare matchup as the teams have faced each other 7 times starting in 1971, but the teams split their Premier League head-to-head fixtures back in 2016 (Last time Villa was in the Premier League) as both teams didn’t win their matchups on home turf.
- Most recent fixture: Villa 1-2 Bournemouth
- In their 7 game history, 3 Home winners; 3 Away winners; 1 draw
This is a tough game to predict as I believe Bournemouth could have shown a lot more strength offensively against Sheffield United. But they get another chance at a promoted team to make up those lost 2 points. Although Aston Villa looked sharp and confident against Tottenham, I don’t think they will have that same energy and adrenaline against Bournemouth. Eddie Howe and his Lads will be victories in Birmingham collecting their first 3 points of the season.
Bournemouth Money Line at +200 with SugarHouse
The Premier League are very generous people as they give us another top 6 matchup for Match Day 2 of the season. Tottenham will travel to the Etihad Stadium as they look to upset an unstoppable Manchester City Squad. Raheem Sterling started his season with a hattrick against West Ham as Tottenham rallied back to be victorious against Aston Villa after suffering an early deficit. Manchester City is a reloaded runaway steam engine that won’t let anything stop it in its tracks to glory. Manchester City won both Premier League fixtures against Tottenham last season 1-0, but did you forget that they faced off in the Champions League earlier this year when Manchester’s last-minute goal was disallowed knocking the Cityzens out of the Champions League? Wag remembers and revenge is in the air.
- City scored 5 goals out of 9 shots on target against West Ham
- City have lost 1 game to Tottenham since 2010
- They have Tied twice since 2010
Ultimately, even a Monkey would say that City will beat Tottenham at home. It’s a simple known fact, just like how the Sun is hot and water is very very wet. But then I saw what the oddsmakers allocated Tottenham’s odds and I couldn’t believe my eyes that Tottenham was a +700 underdog. A Champions League Finalists are allocated at +700. I feel like a caged dog that is being taunted with bacon on the outside knowing that theirs a trap door I can fall through if I go for the bacon. So I’m going to do what’s best and be an idiot. Bet the Tottenham Money Line and make sure the bank is open to collect your winnings. Double down on the Under 3.5 goals too!
Tottenham Money Line +700 & Under 3.5 goals -165 SugarHouse
Sheffield United vs. Crystal Palace
Billy Sharp was the most famous person in Bournemouth this past Saturday after giving Sheffield United their first point of the season after a late scrappy goal. Crystal Palace was holding down the fort against Everton where they too managed to gain their first point of the season. Sheffield looked very dangerous at certain moments of their match as they lacked to finish in the final third before ruining my Bournemouth money line bet. I promise I’m not still mad about it. Palace is still trying to deal with Zaha’s transfer situation as he came off the bench against Everton that Saturday.
- First meeting since 2011
- Crystal Palace bet Sheffield 1-0 previous fixture
- Sheffield are favorites
Sheffield United will be playing in front of a deafening Bramall Lane on Sunday as the Premier League returns to Sheffield after 12 years. The crowd will be involved in every play, every referee decision, and every pass. Crystal Palace have the Ultras, Sheffield fans have the passion. Sheffield is +150 favorites heading into this match as Crystal Palace are still figuring out Zaha’s situation. All in all, I believe Sheffield will get an early goal followed by a scrappy Crystal Palace goal resulting this fixture into a draw. You have to pick some games to end in a stalemate, this is one of them on Match Day 2.
Tie at +220 with SugarHouse
Chelsea vs. Leicester City
Frank Lampard’s Chelsea look to hit the ‘Restart’ button as the Foxes come to town Sunday afternoon. Leicester was held goalless at home splitting a point with the Wolves. I predicted that Draw, no big deal. Leicester was dominant against the Wolves controlling 70% of possession. Chelsea looked powerful in the first 20 minutes against Manchester United as Tammy Abraham was a handful for the United defense but after a converted Rashford penalty, it all went downhill for the Blues. Chelsea wasn’t able to take 3 points from Leicester at either fixture last season but was able to beat the foxes in the FA Cup. However, this is the Premier League.
- Leicester’s won at Stamford last meeting 1-0 / Previous fixture: 0-0
- Leicester took 16 shots with 1 on target on Match Day 1
- Chelsea has scoring issues
Chelsea will win this matchup. I mean come on, does a bear shit in the woods? Lampard’s men will be motivated and well-received on Sunday giving the players that extra boost of confidence to provide a result against the visiting Foxes. Chelsea is not the heavy favorites as expected because bettors are hesitant towards Frank Lampard’s strategies, but I’m not going to be hesitant and give Frank his first 3 points as a Premier League manager.
Chelsea Money Line at -132 with SugarHouse
Wolverhampton vs. Manchester United
Red hot Manchester United are steaming towards Wolverhampton as they look to mirror their stellar performance against Chelsea this past Sunday. The expensive defensive purchases United made over the summer prove to be worth the money, so far. The Wolves weren’t able to create much noise in Leicester after a goalless draw and struggling to control the ball throughout the game. They are going to have to change that, unless they want Rashford, Martial, Lingard, and Pogba running down their throats. The Wolves were the better side last season besting Manchester United in 1 Premier League match and in the FA Cup. The Wolves were beating top 6 teams more than the other teams, which statistically doesn’t make sense but it sure as hell felt like it.
- Wolves are unbeaten in last 3 matchups vs. United / Last Fixture 2:1
- United scored 3 goals in 16 minutes vs. Chelsea
- United scored 3 goals out of 5 shots on target
After watching United pummel Chelsea in classic United fashion, it’s hard not to bet on the Red Devils. Wolverhampton’s recent record vs. United also halts my intuition to bet on United. But United’s woeful record to the Wolves in their last 3 outings will surely motivate the squad to deliver a result away from home. A 4-0 win over a top 6 team is the best confidence booster a Premier League team can soak itself in. Bet the Manchester United Money Line at +123.
Manchester United Money Line +125 with SugarHouse