Rob Senior previews Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins On July 7, provides his expert prediction and best bets.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Date & Time: Friday, July 7, 6:40 P.M. Eastern
Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies (-135) at Miami Marlins (+115)
Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+125)/Braves +1.5 (-165)
Total: Over 7 (-110)/Under 7 (-120)
Where: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Weather: Retractable Roof Stadium. 84 degrees, 30% chance of rain at first pitch.
Phillies vs. Marlins: Preview and Picks
The Phillies travel to Miami this weekend for the final series before Major League Baseball’s All-Star break.
Friday’s series opener pits two of the National League’s premiere right-handed pitchers against one another. 2022 postseason hero Zack Wheeler takes the hill for the Phillies against last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara.
But as a look at the numbers will show us, a year makes plenty of difference.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
At a record of 46-39, the defending National League champions are in the process of shaking off some early-season struggles. Bryce Harper is back and looking healthier every day, while new acquisition shortstop Trea Turner continues to work out of a slump.
Nick Castellanos is All-Star Game-bound next week in the midst of a bounce back season, while Kyle Schwarber continues to compensate for an anemic .188 batting average with impressive power numbers (22 home runs, 47 RBI from the Phillies’ leadoff spot.)
They’ll be supporting Wheeler, who went 4-0 in the month of June while enjoying elite run support. The results mask his relative struggles in the previous two starts, when he’s failed to make it through the sixth inning, allowing five earned runs against the Mets on June 25 and four against St. Louis on July 1.
Phillies offensive numbers are fairly similar against right and left-handed pitchers, with a .743 OPS against righties like Alcantara in 2023. The defending NL champs shelled Alcantara in their first outing against him this season in April, tagging him for nine runs in four innings.
Miami Marlins Preview
The 51-37 Marlins are one of the surprises of the first half in baseball, and they’re doing it in spite of the struggles of the defending Cy Young winner.
Alcantara stands at a record of 3-7 in 2023 with an ERA of 4.93. Home games like Friday bring little relief, with the right hander at a record of 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA.
The Marlins’ success as a team comes in a small-ball fashion. With Luis Arraez leading the team to the National League’s second-highest team batting average (.263) despite ranking near the bottom of the majors in runs scored (25th place out of 30 teams.)
According to the MLB’s Pythagorean Record approach, Miami should actually be one game under .500 based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Marlins are prime candidates for a second-half regression.
Prediction for Phillies vs. Marlins
The information above appears to point to a recommendation to bet on the Phillies. But it looks as though the oddsmakers are factoring Alcantara’s struggles into the line. They’ve made Philadelphia a -135 favorite on the opening line.
So let’s take a look at the total of 7, with the Over priced at a more-than-fair -110. We like Philadelphia’s chances to make Alcantara work, digging into the Miami bullpen ranked No. 19 in MLB with a 4.10 ERA.
On the other side, we’ll likely see Wheeler go 6-7 innings, but as mentioned his past two wins have come in high-scoring affairs. Let’s look for another on Friday night.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins OVER 7 (-110).
