Rob Senior previews Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves on October 11, 2022, and shares his Phillies vs Braves best bets.
Rob’s Current Picks Win Record: 4:1
The Phillies and Braves square off in Game 1 of a five-game National League Divisional Series on Tuesday afternoon. The winner will advance to face the winner of the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers in next week’s National League Championship Series.
The Braves will host Tuesday’s game as NL East champions, while the Phillies were the 6th and final team to qualify for the playoffs in the NL.
Here’s a look at Tuesday’s game:
Date & Time: Tuesday, October 11, 1:07 P.M. Eastern
Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies (+164) at Atlanta Braves (-196)
Runline: Phillies +1.5 (-134)/Braves -1.5 (+114)
Total: Over 7 (-122)/Under 7 (+100)
Where: Truist Field, Atlanta, GA
Weather: 70 degrees, less than 10% chance of rain
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Season Series: So far in 2022, the Braves lead the Phillies 11-8 in head-to-head matchups.
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) vs. Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
There’s a drop-off from the Phillies’ top two starters, Zack Wheeler and Arron Nola, but Ranger Suarez held his own in 2022.
The 27-year-old lefty was hammered for six runs in three innings last week in Houston, but before that game he enjoyed a 2.97 ERA over his past 10 starts.
Suarez is 1-2 vs. Atlanta this year with a 3.21 ERA.
The Phillies’ lineup hammered left-handed pitching for most of 2022, with hitters like Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos doing considerable damage against southpaws.
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Braves’ depth makes it hard to identify a true staff ace, but lefthander Max Fried gets the call for game 1 after posting a sparkling 2.19 ERA since the All-Star break.
Fried is 0-1 against Philadelphia this year with a 3.13 ERA.
Atlanta may boast the deepest lineup in Major League Baseball this season, as they rate #1 in total bases per game and among the top five in runs per game and run differential.
PointsBet SECOND CHANCE
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
It’s hard to believe that Atlanta would be a nearly 2:1 favorite against the Phillies if this were a regular-season game. Reputations aside, the pitchers’ numbers don’t dictate that type of spread.
However, the depth of the Atlanta lineup and rested pitching staff have to account for something. If the Phillies can get to Fried early, they can go to work on the Atlanta bullpen – but the Braves rank #4 in MLB in bullpen ERA.
The hosts don’t have too many weaknesses, so we’ll take a chance on the run line Tuesday.