PGA Tour: BMW Championship Preview, Predictions & Picks

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Ryan Lee previews this week’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club and shares his best bets ahead of the tournament.

Start: Thursday August 27
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas

  • The Field consists of 70 players and this is a no cut event as part of the Fed ex playoffs
  • The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the Tour Championship next week at East Lake.
  • The course – Olympia Fields Country Club. There is not a lot of history at this course as it was not played here in the previous BMW tournaments. It was played here last at the 2003 US open and additionally the 2015 US Amateur.
  • Players who played in 2015 include Bryson DeChambeau  who won this event, Jon Rahm – 5th Maverick McNealy – 9th and Robby Shelton – 9th

The Course

Par: 70
Yardage: 7,366
Olympia Fields CC (North)
Greens: Poa (Bluegrass) ( mix of bent and Poa)

This event as part of the Fed ex playoffs is a NO CUT event with only the top 70 players in the field. This week isn’t the most appealing since there is really no course history to go off of, and there’s only 70 players and no one gets cut. With all that being said there is less of an edge when it comes to betting and fantasy plays especially. However, we still are finding good odds on players and will be showing the site with the best outright win odds of players we like this week.

Players in the best recent form are Berger, English, D. Johnson and Simpson. We are looking to bet guys with the best recent form since there is a lack of course history. Similar complimentary courses are a lot of the TPC courses including Harding Park. So look at guys who did well there. This could be a course which benefits longer hitters.

Key Stats – Birdie or better, Approach, Proximity 175-200, Off the tee, Ball Striking ,Driving Distance Gained ,Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards.

My top 10 according to my model. *Note I am looking at key stats here since the restart (within the last 3 months):

  1. Dustin Johnson
  2. Justin Thomas
  3. Colin Morikawa
  4. Daniel Berger
  5. Viktor Hovland
  6. Harris English
  7. Webb Simpson
  8. Jason Kokrak
  9. Russell Henley
  10. Hideki Matsuyama

BMW Championship Picks

Here are players listed below with the site that has the BEST betting odds on them across all NJ sites who we like this week.

Pick 1: Harris English (+3500 at DraftKings)

English has been straight fire. He has made 9/10 cuts and a top 20 monster. If not for Dustin Johnson’s historic week last week, English would have won, but settled for a 2nd place. This number is way to good!

Pick 2: Tony Finau (+3100 at DraftKings)

This number is too good for Finau who has been fire, aside from last week where he regressed a little bit. I just couldn’t pass on these odds.

Pick 3: Daniel Berger (+2000 at FanDuel)

Berger has also been on a roll and one of the best players this year. 6 top 10 finishes and a win is impressive and he rates out well this week.

Pick 4: Alexander Noren (80/1 at BetMGM)

Noren has been in great recent form. His last 4 starts – 8th, 22nd, 9th and 3rd. This is a good number for a guy who has been playing this well and also in only a 70 player field.

BOMBS: Tyler Duncan (+30000 at FOXBet)

Duncan finished 29th and 13th in his last 2 starts and has been in good recent form. I do like a Top 20- Top 40 bet even better, but 300/1 was too good to pass up.

Other Notables*

Dustin Johnson – 8/1 on most sites. I hate betting the favorites, but Dustin is priced this low after his historic win last week. Dustin set the 9 hole record shooting -9 and -30 overall which is 2nd overall in PGA history. If DJ plays this week again, just ship him the trophy. However, I obviously expect him to regress.

Justin Thomas – 13/1 on most sites. Thomas has been 1st in approach since the restart – the most important key stat. His only struggle has been putting. If Thomas can just do fairly well and his irons stay the same he will be in contention for a win this week.

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