The NFL saw a lot more Unders hit, as well as fewer injuries. Could the chaos to start the season finally be being sorted out?
NFL Week 4 had something we haven’t seen much of this season, Defense! Chicago/Indy ended 19-11. Both Monday Night Football games hit the under easily. Tampa Bay rode it’s defense and Tom Brady’s 42 yr. old arm to a second half comeback win. You had the game everyone expected to be a blowout not even cover the spread as the L.A. Rams squeaked past the hapless N.Y. Giants 17-9.
So, as I stated to the lucky few this past weekend that got selected for an awesome weekend of prizes and exclusive content. September was the 2020 pre-season as they did not have a true pre-season like the past 100-yrs. of football. Pre-season is where all the kinks are worked out. You figure out who the best slot guy is, or the best coverage ‘backer vs. run-stuffer. This is also where tackling technique is honed, and I think we can all agree, alligator arms are the norm if the defender didn’t completely forget he had arms to begin with. No defender had tackled an opponent to the ground prior to week 1 since at least the Super-Bowl last year. And that only counts 2 teams.
This is where I will begin my picks this week. I will start with the Under on Thursday Night. I know many will say the past proclivity for bad TNF football and high scores. Well unlike last week that saw 2 of the worst and most depleted defensive units in the NFL when the Broncos and Jets squared off. This week, 2 of the best will be squaring off. Both Tampa and Chicago are in the top-10 in Total Yards and Points Allowed. So I will be taking the Under from BetMGM:
The next pick is going to be another Under involving the best defense in the league in the Indianapolis Colts. This Colts defense is probably the best they have had since Joe Namath was making promises against them. They are top-5 in literally every defensive metric, and Cleveland is no slouch outside of being almost dead last in Pass Yards Allowed and Points Allowed. Cleveland is coming off an easy win despite a late comeback by the Cowboys. I don’t see them scoring enough, and Phillip and company don’t seem to enjoy running up the score. So I am taking the Under here again from BetMGM:
Bill Belichick gave the NFL a blueprint on Monday Night, dropping 8 in coverage on every snap and only rushing 3 to flood the passing lanes with zone coverage. The only problem is he didn’t have the youth and speed on defense, or the running game with savvy vet-QB on offense to keep KC off the field the way Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and company can. I’m not bold enough to call a win here, but that +14 is too enticing not to take, again from BetMGM:
And lastly, I had some fun with BetMGM’s newest feature, the “Parlay Generator”. It is located just below your bet slip and can be customized in any way via Sport, Spread, Straight, Odds, Payout, etc. Below is the parlay I generated with the settings below:
After you select “Add to Betslip” it just looks like every other slip you had from BetMGM:
These are my best picks of the week so far. Stop back by though as we will be adding new picks throughout the week! Good luck and may you “Clean the House” this week!