Andew Mengel looks at Week 3 of the NFL schedule and selects the best Prop Bets from the card.
Prop bets are a prickly topic. Seasoned gamblers will tell you they’re for suckers. While, sportsbooks in Las Vegas, like the Hilton, claim prop bets account for their highest rated losses. So…what gives?
Generally, prop bets are a strange concoction, based off of fan interest and perception. Usually, experienced gamblers will fade prop bets, while casual gamblers jump all over them for the entertainment value. But the key to winning prop bets is having the foresight to distinguish between prop bets based on chance and ones rooted in trends.
Before the picks, consider this:
Time is of The Essence
- Every bookmaker is tasked with creating and managing hundreds of lines, so in smaller-market bets, like prop bets, bookmakers spend less time on odd analysis and settle for pairing higher odds with low betting limits. Take the time to analyze, high-odd props and it could prove to be fortuitous.
Stay Away from Chance
- Those sucker bets are real. For example, Coin Flip: Heads or Tails? (heads -105 / tails -105); This is one of the most common props, especially in the Superbowl, but it’s for suckers. No matter what side you choose, there’s a negative expected value. The same is said for. No trend, no bet.
O/U 1.5 Successful Field Goals: Bears Over, +200 at William Hill
Have a day Eddy Piñeiro! The Bears kicking woes seem to be stifled after Piñeiro went 3/3 on field goals, one of which was a game-winning 53-yarder last week in Denver.
The Bears have been dreadful on offense, especially in the Redzone. Chicago’s offense is ranked dead last in Redzone attempts. The offense’s inefficiencies can be blamed on their quarterback, Mitch Trubsiky, who’s completing less than 60% of his passes and has yet to throw a touchdown this year.
Trubisky keeps struggling, and Piñeiro keeps kicking.
Kansas City Chiefs to Score Every Quarter: Yes, +120 at William Hill
Last week, most NFL fans were shocked when they saw the Raiders up 10-0 against the reigning AFC champs. But in the second quarter, the Chiefs responded with a 28-point air raid, which pretty much sealed the game.
But with Baltimore and their hype in town this week, I expect a down-to-business Chiefs team. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have been the darling of the NFL so far this season, but they struggled against the Cardinals last week. Arrowhead is going to be bonkers. Look for the Chiefs to make a statement. Oh, by the way, Patrick Mahomes is on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing yards record by over 1,000 yards. His O/U for passing yards is at 315.5, which he nearly surpassed in the first half of each of his first two games.
Ezekiel Elliot Rushing Yards O/U 89.5: Over, -118 at FanDuel
If that -21 line makes your knees tremble, but you can’t resist making money on the Dolphins, I’d suggest fading the line and taking a prop. Ezekiel Elliot is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and the Dolphins have given up a total of 194.5 rushing yards in two games this season.
Big D’s big O-line, will dominate and I think Zeke easily reaches this total. Same for the backup. If you can find an O/U on Tony Pollard’s rushing yards, lay it on the Over, as long as it’s under 35-40 yards.
Daniel Jones Passing Yards O/U 231.5: Over, -112 at FanDuel
The Giants either called it quits on Eli Manning or don’t want to endanger his current 116-116 career record. Either way, rookie Daniel Jones gets the start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I have no idea who Daniel Jones is as a quarterback. Maybe he’ll look like Gardner Minshew, or maybe he’ll look like Luke Falk. Beats me.
But the Buccaneers defense gave up 333 yards to an injured Cam Newton. I don’t think Daniel Jones torches the Bucks, but I think he’ll fancy frequent check downs to Saquon Barkley, who could torch any defense. Speaking of Saquon, if any sportsbook offers a prop on Barkley’s rushing or total yards, take it. His 153 total yards and 3 touchdowns against the Bucks last year was pretty convincing.