The NFL Playoffs start with Wild Card Weekend, and we’ve got three player props to target for your rushing yards parlay this weekend.
Wild Card Weekend – the NFL’s most wonderful time of the year! The perfect time to place that last rushing yards parlay of the season.
Some people may be partial to opening day or the Super Bowl. However, for my money nothing beats leading off the playoffs with a half-dozen NFL games in about 48 hours’ time!
With the exception of the Ravens and 49ers, who earned bye weeks, the NFL’s 12 postseason teams will all be in action this weekend. What better way to celebrate than by throwing together a parlay that allows you to enjoy the entire slate of games?
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Here are three rushing totals to consider for your parlay:
Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 rushing yards vs. Miami Dolphins (-115)
Opportunity is on Pacheco’s side as several circumstances combine to make the Chiefs a ground-based team this postseason.
First is performance. Much was made of the drop by Marques Valdes-Scantling that cost Kansas City a Monday Night Football game against Philadelphia, and a penalty on Kadarius Toney that cost them another win against Buffalo. Even with Patrick Mahomes, the running game has been the most consistent part of Kansas City’s offense.
But this week, we look at two other factors – weather and opponent.
Miami’s defense isn’t bad – not at all. But the Dolphins struggle against good teams and look at the injury report.
Three Dolphins linebackers (Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Cameron Goode) hit the injured reserve after last week’s loss to Buffalo, joining standout Bradley Chubb who was injured the prior week and Jaelan Phillips, who was hurt in November.
That’s FIVE missing linebackers, to say nothing of CBs Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramset and safeties Deshon Elliott and Jevon Holland (all in doubt for this weekend).
The point? Pacheco’s seen 16 or more carries in seven of the past 11 Chiefs games, and he’s one of the league’s more physical runners going against a depleted back seven.
Lastly, the forecast for kickoff in Kansas City? ONE. FREAKING. DEGREE.
Would you want to tackle Pacheco in potentially sub-zero temperatures? No thanks. And even if the Dolphins do, who’s healthy and up to the task? Take the over.
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Jaylen Warren UNDER 34.5 rushing yards at Buffalo Bills (-110)
Maybe we should change it to “Wild Card Weather Weekend.”
24 degrees and snow at kickoff is the forecast in Buffalo, which is frankly perfect for this matchup of old-school, cold-weather teams in the Bills and Steelers.
But it’s not so perfect for Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren, who’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry this season but has only received double-digit carries in a handful of games.
As for the weather, last week, the Steelers played the Ravens in a similarly messy environment, and Warren saw only nine carries for 33 yards as Najee Harris dominated the backfield with 26 carries. And Pittsburgh dominated time of possession in that contest—they may not be as fortunate this week with no TJ Watt and a Buffalo offense that’s considerably better than the backups Baltimore used last week.
And while Buffalo allows 110 yards on the ground per game – just about average at 15th in the NFL – that number goes down to 98 yards at home. Plus, the Bills allow the third-fewest rushing attempts per game of any team in the league, and the Steelers play at a notoriously slow pace. The only thing that would likely make them speed that pace is an early deficit, and that’s obviously not a great script for piling up the rushing yards.
If you want to play an over for Pittsburgh, maybe look to Najee Harris. I’ll be on the under for Warren on this weeks rushing yard parlay.
Rachaad White OVER 64.5 rushing yards vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-115)
Someday in the not-too-distant future, we’ll probably see the media pull back the curtain on the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles. Feuds between players and coaches? Meddling ownership? Who knows?
But at least then, this team’s late slide might make a little sense.
For the first half of the season, finding the easiest play in each week’s parlay required three simple steps:
- Find the team playing the Philadelphia Eagles
- Determine their leading rusher
- Bet the under on his rushing yards
The fourth step was profit, as the Eagles strangle running games through October. But a few November hiccups gave way to a brutal December/January, where Philadelphia’s allowing over 130 yards rushing per contest.
Meet Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White, who saw 19+ carries in five of the last six Buccaneers games. You’ve also got to like his chances of doing the same on a rainy Florida evening against an Eagles defense that’s ceded 16+ attempts to at least one opposing running back in their last seven games.
No one knows what’s wrong with Philadelphia’s defense – but it’s real and it’s (un)spectacular. And Matt Patricia has decidedly not been the answer since taking over as defensive coordinator four weeks ago.
Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith – they’re all banged up, and Tampa Bay’s own defense is ornery at home. If the Buccaneers get an early lead, they may turn to White early and often to carry them into round two of the NFC playoffs.
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Rob’s Wild Card Weekend Rushing Yards Parlay (+567)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 yards (-115)
- Jaylen Warren UNDER 34.5 yards (-110)
- Rachaad White OVER 64.5 yards (-115)