Backfield battles, quarterback performances and more on tap for the NFL Week 9 Rushing Yards Parlay
The Week 9 NFL Sunday Rushing Yards Parlay features a play on the morning game from Germany, plus a look at some backfield battles around the league.
Last week did not go well. Joe Mixon outperformed expectations against the suddenly struggling 49ers. Breece Hall never got on track against the lowly Giants. Even the old reliable “bet against RBs who play the Eagles” crashed and burned (credit to Brian Robinson for a strong showing).
Moving onto the Week 9 slate…
Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 yards vs. Miami Dolphins (-120)
Who would’ve thought the Chiefs would be scrambling (pardon the expression) to keep pace with another offense?
When Kansas City battles Miami in Germany this Sunday, it’s a matchup of AFC division leaders. If you’ve paid attention this season you know the Chiefs are NOT the better offense on paper.
Tua Tagovailoa is part of the MVP conversation. Tyreek Hill just set a record for the fewest games needed for a wide receiver to reach 1,000 yards in a season.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs really don’t have a go-to guy outside of tight end Travis Kelce. They do have Isaiah Pacheco, one of the hardest runners in the NFL, but more and more Kansas City is turning to the QB run game and allowing Mahomes’ natural ability running to combine with his unprecedented passing gift.
Mahomes has surpassed this number in all but two games already this season. Also, it seems KC needs to pull out all the stops after last week’s lackluster outing in Denver. Plus, they need to keep pace with the explosive Dolphins no matter what it takes. This game could have huge playoff positioning ramifications down the line.
Defensively, the Dolphins are decent against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry and about 107 yards rushing per game. Neither Jalen Hurts nor Josh Allen put up impressive rushing yards on Miami, but both their teams were in control throughout the games that provided Miami’s two losses.
This number started at 26.5 at +110. It’s since inflated to 28.5 at a slightly less tempting -105.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Dameon Pierce UNDER 43.5 yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-115)
Last week, Pierce averaged 3.8 yards per carry on a dozen attempts in Houston’s loss to Carolina.
Believe it or not, it was his best performance in terms of average all season.
Overall, Pierce is averaging a measly 3.0 yards per carry, which helps explain why we’re seeing more and more of Devin Singletary (10 carries last week).
Carolina, who yielded Pierce’s 3.8 yards per carry ‘breakout’ game is one of the NFL’s weakest run defense units. Tampa Bay is not, at 9th in total rush yards allowed and 12th in yard per carry.
Even at four yards per carry, Pierce would need 11 attempts to get to this number… which is certainly possible, but his leash seems to be wearing thin. I like Houston’s chances of moving the ball through the air in this game, I expect to see more and more of Singletary, and it adds up to a subpar outing for Pierce.
BetMGM Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Jonathan Taylor OVER 64.5 yards at Carolina Panthers (-140)
He’s back! JT’s holdout opened up an opportunity for Zack Moss in the Indianapolis backfield, but the past two games have seen Taylor averaging 15 carries and 85 yards per outing.
Moss performed too well to be moved aside, but Taylor is clearly on the way to re-establishing himself as the guy in this backfield. Best of all, there’s plenty of yards to go around against a Carolina defense surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and almost 140 yards per game on the ground.
When Taylor signed his three-year, $42 million extension on October 7, the Colts made an increasingly rare decision in the NFL – committing to a star running back for a period of time financially. Three years may not seem like much in the scheme of a career, but for an NFL running back it’s an eternity.
Teams don’t spend that kind of money on running backs to watch them languish on the sidelines, and a game against leaky Carolina provides the perfect setting for the Colts to give Tayor every opportunity to become the workhorse once more.
BetRivers Sports SECOND CHANCE
Rob’s Week 9 NFL Sunday Rushing Yards Parlay (+448):
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Dameon Pierce UNDER 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-140)