Which NFL rushers will go over or under their totals? Which players make for good sleeper picks? Week 8 Rushing Yards Parlay covered here.
In the end, luck evens out – and that’s what happened last week. But what about your week 8 Rushing Yard Parlay?
I’ve certainly complained about a few ‘bad beats’ this season as these plays went 2-1 or 3-1, so it wouldn’t be right to skip over the manner in which we hit last week’s big pick.
D’Andre Swift had a solid start in the Eagles’ big win against Miami, but the Dolphins adjusted to limit Swift after the first quarter. With 2:36 to play, over 61.5 yards appeared doomed as the Eagles looked to run out the clock from the Miami 28-yard line.
Swift’s 15th carry of the night, however, got to the second level with one man to beat… and he did, breaking into the open for a hopeful game – and wager – ending touchdown! But Miami safety DeShon Elliott was a step quicker and brought Swift down. The Eagles had the first down and the victory, but the spot would be awfully significant to some people.
The official spotted the ball at the Miami six-yard line… 22-yard gain for Swift, giving him 62 yards on the night and the Over!
Isn’t gambling fun? Onto Week 8…
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Breece Hall OVER 67.5 yards at New York Giants (-115)
It’s always fun to go against the Giants’ run defense.
It’s even better to do it with a running back who dominates his team’s carries, as Hall has done since being declared fully recovered from his ACL injury.
But the key to this game isn’t the Jets’ depth chart (though it is favorable, with Dalvin Cook’s role seemingly decreasing) or the opponent (although you can’t argue with going against the Giants, 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed and 31st in yards per carry allowed.)
This is about the game script. No, not that story from the commercial where star players ‘plan’ the 2023 season – the player usage trends that we see when certain teams are winning or losing.
The Jets are 3-3, but the wins against Buffalo and Philadelphia were come-from-behind efforts where the team had to throw the ball often. The Jets would rather not do that, if they can help it. Also, in the one game they’ve led for the balance of the contest, Hall had 22 carries for 177 yards.
That game was against the Broncos, whose rushing defense profile looks suspiciously like the Giants. If the Jets get an early lead, they’d love to let Hall and the defense ‘carry’ them to the finish line.
BetMGM Sports Special SPECIAL OFFER
Kareem Hunt UNDER 47.5 yards at Seattle Seahawks (-135)
Jerome Ford’s out for a few weeks with an injured ankle. This is the chance Kareem Hunt’s been waiting for, right?
Well… in reality, Pierre Strong got most of the action when Ford left last week’s win over Indianapolis. It doesn’t appear that Ford’s absence will clear the way for Hunt to receive the overwhelming majority of carries.
The Browns are also traveling out west after two straight emotional victories over San Francisco and last week against the Colts. Next week, they return home to take on the hapless Arizona Cardinals. This has “dead spot” written all over it, and I expect Seattle to grind out a low-scoring win.
Honestly, the defenses in general are the area to watch in this game. Specific to Hunt’s cause, Seattle is throttling opposing running backs this year. No one has even 80 TOTAL yards against the Seahawks (rushing and receiving combined) from the RB position in 2023. Hunt’s chances to exceed 46.5 rushing yards while likely splitting carries/targets don’t sit well.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
No Guts, No Glory Play: Joe Mixon UNDER 52.5 yards at San Francisco 49ers (-115)
Strength vs. Strength.
The 49ers allow less than 60 yards per game to running backs this season, and off a two-game losing streak you can rest assured they’ll be prepared for anything Cincinnati wants to send their way.
Mixon’s rushing totals exceeded this 53.5 figure in five of the first six games this season, and he has very limited competition for carries in the Cincinnati backfield.
So this is a play against Mixon and the way this game figures to play out. San Francisco added quarterback Brock Purdy to the injury list Wednesday, adding some concern for the 49ers, but this is more about their defense.
Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins – not exactly known for his prime-time prowess – sliced and diced the Niners secondary for 378 yards on Monday Night Football last week. The Vikings’ two running backs, Cam Akers and Alex Mattison, combined for 18 carries and 70 yards rushing.
How would you go about this if you were Zac Taylor or Joe Burrow?
Mixon has seven receptions over the past two games, so a pass-heavy approach doesn’t exclude him from the gameplan. But I don’t foresee a big rushing total.
Bet365 Sports SPECIAL OFFER
BONUS PLAY: Brian Robinson UNDER 39.5 yards vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-115)
You’ll probably see it here every week until it doesn’t work.
It happened to Raheem Mostert last week, Breece Hall the week prior, and… actually, every other leading running back the Eagles’ defense has played so far. They’ve failed to reach their pregame rushing total.
It’s hard to believe it can last forever – that’s why it’s a bonus play. However, Antonio Gibson and rookie Chris Rodriguez are in line for some carries as well against the deep Eagles defensive line. I just don’t see enough volume for Robinson, who’ll have to grind out the necessary yards against this defense.
Nothing personal, Brian. It’s just your turn.
Caesars Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Rob’s Week 8 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+508)
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Breece Hall OVER 67.5 yards (-115)
- Kareem Hunt UNDER 47.5 yards (-135)
- Joe Mixon UNDER 52.5 yards (-115)