A look at the NFL’s best rushers and their chances to hit the over or under. We cover who to include in your week 7 rushing yard parlay here.
The “no guts, no glory” play paid off when Christian McCaffrey left the 49ers’ loss to Cleveland early, falling well short of his 68.5 rushing yards prop.
However, sometimes even when you’re right, you’re wrong. I thought the Eagles would attack the 27th-ranked Jets rushing defense with D’Andre Swift, but instead the Birds had Jalen Hurts take to the air 45 times. Meanwhile, given only 10 carries Swift got in no rhythm whatsoever, accumulating only 18 yards on the day.
The fact that the Eagles turned the ball over four times and lost for the first time in 2023 may vindicate my analysis but does nothing for cashing our parlay.
So this week, do we learn from our mistakes?
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
D’Andre Swift OVER 61.5 rushing yards vs. Miami Dolphins (-125)
Philadelphia mismanaged last week’s game, but these guys aren’t stupid. If it wasn’t clear before, it is now. The running game is the bread-and-butter of this offense. No matter how strong a season wide receiver AJ Brown may be enjoying.
Better yet, the injury-ravaged Eagles figure to get their most important piece, right tackle Lane Johnson, back this week. Johnson sprained an ankle in the loss to the Jets and the difference was noticeable for the remainder of the contest.
However, the Eagles could be without as many as a half-dozen other starters, several of them in the defensive secondary. Not an ideal position when playing the explosive Dolphins. So what’s the best strategy?
Keep Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and friends on the sideline as much as possible. That’s accomplished by re-establishing Swift and the running game. Miami allows almost 115 rushing yards a game. A surprising total for a team that’s enjoyed big leads and forces opposing offenses to throw the ball.
The Eagles’ recipe for success in this game is to take an early lead, slow – not stop – the Dolphins offense and win with physicality in the trenches late. This all adds up to a busy and productive day for Swift. Nick Sirianni won’t make the same mistake twice.
Caesars Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Raheem Mostert UNDER 50.5 rushing yards at Philadelphia Eagles (-120)
We finally got the best game of the week on Sunday Night Football! Let’s take advantage by playing both sides of this inter-conference showdown.
Look, it’s another high-performing running back going into Philadelphia with a manageable rushing total! And it’s an even-money prop.
Put it in your parlay. Last week, the Jets’ Breece Hall joined Rhamondre Stevenson, Alexander Mattison, Kyren Williams, and Rachaad White as running backs who fall short of their rushing total against the Eagles.
If Miami gets Jeff Wilson back, it could eat into Mostert’s carries further. Also, as explained in the D’Andre Swift section I think Miami will choose – and need – to throw the ball with their explosive passing game to keep pace with Philly in this one.
When the Dolphins lost to Buffalo 48-20 in week four, Mostert suffered with just seven carries for nine yards. I don’t expect a game so one-sided, but if Mostert can’t get to 15+ carries he could struggle to hit this number against the Eagles’ run defense.
No Guts, No Glory Play: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 43.5 rush yards vs. Buffalo Bills (-120)
This worked last week, let’s give it another shot. We’re looking for a running back or rusher whose performances have been so strong (or weak) that no bettor in his right mind would seemingly go against (or for) him in a parlay.
That brings us to Stevenson, averaging a WEAK 3.0 yards per carry on a garbage New England offense, losing time to Ezekiel Elliott, and dealing with an ankle problem this week. Who wants to bet on this guy??
At the right number, we do! The Patriots really don’t have much choice. They don’t throw the ball well, and quarterback Mac Jones has received plenty of chances against teams weaker than the Bills. They need to do something – anything – to move the ball and stay in this game. Controlling the clock with the running game might be their best bet.
Especially in light of the opponent, a Bills defense allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry and almost 134 yards per game on the ground. Even the Giants moved the ball to a degree last week in the second half, and now Buffalo heads on the road for what could be a weather game in Foxboro.
It doesn’t have to be pretty. I’m not even saying you have to watch him play. But there’s value in Stevenson this week.
*Note: if the ankle injury keeps Stevenson from playing, Elliott becomes the only Patriots running back who’s taken a carry this year. In that scenario, I’d bet Zeke’s over as well at any total below 50 rushing yards.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Rob’s Week 7 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+572 odds)
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- D’Andre Swift OVER 61.5 yards (-125)
- Raheem Mostert UNDER 50.5 yards (-120)
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 43.5 yards (-120)