Week 5 of the NFL is here and we’ve covered this weeks parlay picks. Over? Under? Here are the NFL rushing props to target for Week 5.
Rushing props for Week 5’s Sunday NFL games are available, so let’s look at the schedule and pick a few players to target.
With NFL teams playing 17 games a season these days, we can’t really say everyone’s played a quarter of their games.
But week 5 is the first spot on the schedule where teams start taking their bye weeks. Cleveland, the L.A. Chargers, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are out of action this week, so our slate is a little smaller.
The good news is four games of data give us a stronger idea of who we want to target and in which spots. After a lackluster week 4, let’s dive into some Week 5 NFL rushing props:
DeVon Achane OVER 49.5 rushing yards vs. New York Giants (-115)
Is it possible to quit on your season in week four?
If you watched the Giants on Monday Night Football, you’d say yes. Eleven sacks allowed, missed tackles, terrible turnovers… and that was at home against a Seahawks team looking forward to a bye.
Now they head down to hot, humid south Florida to face an inspired Dolphins squad that, despite their first loss last week in Buffalo. Is pacing the NFL offensively with almost 40 points per game. Part of it is their two-headed attack at running back, featuring Raheem Mostert and today’s target, DeVon Achane.
Why target Achane and not Mostert? Well, a few reasons: first of all, there aren’t any props available yet on Mostert because he didn’t practice on Wednesday. No official reason was offered, and it could just be a rest day for a 31-year-old at the start of a long season.
But it’s noteworthy because it hasn’t happened previously.
Even if Mostert is healthy and plays, Achane looks solid off consecutive big days—203 yards on eighteen carries in a win over Denver, and 101 yards on just eight carries against the Bills last week.
Regression isn’t his friend – Achane won’t average 11.4 yards per carry all season. But the Giants aren’t the team likely to send him plummeting back to earth, as they surrender 134 yards on the ground per game this year.
Favored by 11 points, the Dolphins figure to play with a lead, and New York will focus on stopping explosive Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the passing game. If Achane can get to double-digit carries, and he should, I like his chances.
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
David Montgomery OVER 71.5 rushing yards vs. Carolina Panthers (-115)
This was originally going to be a Jahmyr Gibbs play – but no line is available as yet. That said, if Gibbs’ line comes out below 40 rushing yards, feel free to swap him in this spot.
But I’m also comfortable switching to Montgomery off his career day on Thursday Night Football against the Packers. 32 carries for 121 yards and three scores shows us the Lions weren’t playing around when they handed Montgomery a three-year deal this offseason.
More exciting? The 23 carries per game average, which would mean an average of just 3.2 yards per carry gets us to this number. But Carolina surrenders 4.7 yards per carry, and again Detroit figures to have a lead in this game.
The only question with Montgomery is at what point, and to what degree, does first-round pick Gibbs start to cut into his workload? The duo is the epitome of the proverbial lightning (Gibbs) and thunder (Montgomery) combination, and it’s fair to wonder when Detroit starts thinking about saving Montgomery from some wear and tear.
Choose your favorite Detroit running back for this week… I like this number for Montgomery and would play Gibbs as well at any number up to 44.5.
Caesars Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Joshua Dobbs OVER 21.5 rushing yards vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-125)
Some simple math:
- Cincinnati allows almost 30 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks
- Josh Dobbs averages 35.2 rushing yards per game
- This is a plus-money prop at 21.5 yards?
Take it. Don’t ask too many questions.
Some more information? The Bengals are blitzing on 35 percent of quarterback drop backs – but even if those blitzes get home, remember that sack yards count against PASSING totals in the NFL, not rushing.
Also, the Bengals are getting clobbered to the tune of 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, 30th in the NFL. For that reason, I don’t blame you if you take a look at Cardinals running back James Conner as well (currently listed at 58.5 yards).
But Dobbs is my play in this one.
BetRivers Sports SECOND CHANCE
BONUS UNDER PICK: Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 53.5 rush yards vs. New Orleans Saints (-115)
Stevenson missed practice Wednesday, and while he seems likely to play this week it makes sense that the Patriots might look to Ezekiel Elliott more often.
But that’s just one strike against Stevenson. There are two more… and you know what happens when you get three strikes.
Strike two isn’t really his fault. Last week’s 38-3 loss to the Cowboys saw Patriots quarterback Mac Jones benched in the second half as the game got further and further away from New England after two Dallas defensive touchdowns.
Quarterbacks tend to take the blame in these situations. It’s part of the job. But New England isn’t making a quarterback change. Quite the opposite, in fact, as the team has reiterated that Jones is their guy. Despite a curious outcry from former Patriots like Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski that the former first-round pick’s days in New England could be numbered.
Anyway, back to Stevenson – my expectation is that the Patriots will gives Jones a chance to “get right” in this game, relying on a pass-heavy script where most of the running back work could be as pass catchers out of the backfield.
Strike three, however? Stevenson has seen at least a dozen carries in each of the Patriots’ four games yet averages only 2.7 yards per carry. The New Orleans defense is right around league average. Meaning that reaching his 53.5 number would require Stevenson to carry the ball 20 times at his current figure.
Of course, numbers don’t remain the same indefinitely. Stevenson may see some progression in his average, just as someone like Achane will see regression in his own.
But I’m not backing a running back with a 2.7 average on a struggling offense in a game that looks like a tossup on paper. Under is the play.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Rob’s Week 5 NFL Sunday Rushing Yards Parlay (+529):
(All Odds from DraftKings)
DeVon Achane OVER 49.5 yards (-115)
David Montgomery OVER 71.5 yards (-115)
Josh Dobbs OVER 21.5 yards (-125)
A $50 parlay on Rob’s Week 4 NFL Sunday parlay could win $314.57.
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Caesars Sports SPECIAL OFFER
