We pick NFL rushers who figure to exceed or fall short of their rushing yards Week 4 total. We cover who to include in your parlay here!
We’ll lay out the Week 4 NFL rushing yards parlay after a quick look back at Week 3.
For the third consecutive week, the parlay falls one prop short, with a 2-1 record and the bonus bet hitting.
Travis Etienne flew past his total in an otherwise sorry offensive performance for the Jaguars against Houston. On the other side, Jerome Ford struggled against stingy Tennessee and Khalil Herbert was, as we predicted, only minorly involved in the game plan for Chicago, who lost to Kansas City in what will forever be known as the “Taylor Swift game.”
But Desmond Ridder – and the entire Falcons offense – was handcuffed by Detroit and couldn’t reach his 13.5 yards.
On to Week 4, starting with our Over play of the week.
James Cook OVER 56.5 rushing yards vs. Miami Dolphins (-115)
Yes, Buffalo has a strong offense filled with talent. But the last thing you want to do right now is draw the Miami Dolphins into a shootout.
As you might have heard, the Dolphins became the first team in most of our lifetimes (since 1966) to reach the 70-point mark in an NFL game when they destroyed the Broncos, 70-20 last week. Tua Tagovailoa and friends are on fire right now. Buffalo’s best chance is to grind the pace of this game way down and limit possessions.
Enter Cook, the clear bell cow back for the Bills averaging almost 15 carries per game this season with 6.1 yards per carry. We’d love to see that number get to 17-18 this week if we were betting on Buffalo. However, 15 carries would hopefully get us to the number because there’s one thing no one’s talking about:
Miami’s defense isn’t THAT great.
The offense rightfully gets the headlines, but the Dolphins rank in the bottom quartile of the NFL in total rush yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. The first stat, in particular, should be worrisome for a team that’s played with a lead most of the season, which would normally suppress rushing stats.
If Cook gets 15 carries on week 4’s Sunday, four yards per carry should get us to this number. An uptick in workload would only help the cause.
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CJ Stroud OVER 7.5 rushing yards vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-135)
Yeah, this is the play that burned us last week. A quarterback not known for running with what looks like a very attainable number.
But these plays don’t have to look pretty. The thinking here is that Stroud will be under plenty of pressure from TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the rest of Pittsburgh’s vaunted pass rush.
Remember though, sacks don’t count against rushing yards in the NFL. A rookie quarterback, up against the best pass rush he’s seen so far with a banged-up offensive line of his own figures to scramble a couple times when he hears footsteps.
Pittsburgh is also known for playing a lot of man coverage, which is beneficial to the quarterback running game.
With Tank Dell and Nico Collins emerging as strong young WRs, it’s unlikely Stroud’s rushing ability was a major focus in Pittsburgh’s gameplan this week. However, the rookie from Ohio State has shown the capability in last year’s College Football Playoff against Georgia (don’t laugh – they’re probably better than the Broncos’ defense). Also, by reaching double-digit rushing yards in two of his first three games in the NFL.
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Roschon Johnson OVER 31.5 rushing yards vs. Denver Broncos (-140)
Last week, we went against Johnson’s backfield mate Khalil Herbert for a few reasons.
The main reason was that Kansas City seemed likely to get a big lead and take away the run as an option in Chicago’s gameplan. This happened, but with QB Justin Fields struggling mightily as a passer. The Bears still gave their running backs 15 carries total, with Johnson out-carrying Herbert by a slim 8-7 margin.
So with the 0-3 Broncos in town and reeling from the Dolphins’ 350 rushing yards last week, I like Johnson to continue to see a plurality, if not a majority, of running back carries against a movable defense.
The Bears are the definition of desperate as they take on another 0-3 squad. Alos, Fields’ arm doesn’t seem like the best strategy to win them the game. Even if Chicago falls behind early – a distinct possibility – the running game seems like their best chance to put up points on Denver this Sunday.
Last week’s eight carries were a season high for Johnson. I like his chances to see at least this many on Week 4’s Sunday, putting him comfortably in range of this number.
BetRivers Sports SECOND CHANCE
Week 4 Bonus Play: Brian Robinson Jr. UNDER 53.5 rushing yards at Philadelphia Eagles (-125)
Ever watch a football game with an old-timer who eschews today’s ‘flashy’ modern players?
“If you really want to know what goes on, watch the linemen,” he’ll tell you as you roll your eyes.
Well, if you’re ever going to listen to the old guy, do it during an Eagles game. Philadelphia may well possess the best offensive AND defensive lines in the NFL. To the old guy’s credit, this approach works well, as the Eagles are 3-0 for the second straight year.
Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, former college teammates at Georgia, patrol the middle of Philly’s defensive line on rushing downs. The duo, and Carter in particular, submit at least one new highlight-reel play per week. However, most importantly, here’s what they do to lead running backs:
- Week 1 at New England: Rhamondre Stevenson 12 carries, 25 yards
- Week 2 vs. Minnesota: Alexander Mattison 8 carries, 29 yards
- Week 3 at Tampa Bay: Rachaad White 14 carries, 38 yards
And now the Commanders come to Lincoln Financial Field to match up with the Eagles as 8-point underdogs. 53.5 seems like a lofty number for Robinson, who went from 18.5 carries (average) in the first two games to only 10 last week in a one-sided loss to Buffalo, 37-3.
I don’t predict a 34-point win for the Eagles, but it’s a fair bet that the Commanders will need to play from behind in this game. And while Robinson managed 70 yards on those 10 carries a week ago… that wasn’t against the Philadelphia run defense.
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Rob’s Week 4 NFL Sunday Rushing Yards Parlay (+457):
All Odds are from DraftKings:
James Cook OVER 56.5 yards (-115)
CJ Stroud OVER 7.5 yards (-135)
Roschon Johnson OVER 31.5 yards (-140)
A $50 parlay on Rob’s Week 4 NFL Sunday parlay could win $278.95.
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