A look at the best rushers in the NFL, and their chances of beating the rushing totals! Your week 16 rushing yard parlay picks covered here.
This weeks NFL Sunday is smaller than most with three games on Christmas plus two more on Saturday. That however doesn’t mean we can’t find some attractive Week 16 rushing yard parlay picks!
It has to be better than last week, where Bijan Robinson was a complete no-show (seven rushes, 11 yards) in a 9-7 loss to the lowly Carolina Panthers that probably crushed Atlanta’s playoff hopes for 2023.
As the weather turns colder and the playoffs approach, running the ball is even more important for NFL teams. Who’s going to succeed (or fall short) this week?
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Breece Hall OVER 46.5 yards vs. Washington Commanders (-115)
If you’d asked me at the start of the season “which running back do you think you’ll bet on the most this year?” well, I’m not sure Hall would’ve been No. 1. But he’d have been high on the list. Certainly ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots’ running back whose season may now be over but appeared in FIVE of these parlays.”
The point is you never know in the NFL. All the preseason hype around Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense had the experts ignoring the second-year back. Even though he continues to be the most consistent, reliable piece of this Jets offense (not saying much).
This number is too low for a talent like Hall against a defense like the Commanders, which has allowed 100+ yards to a running back in each of their last six games. Hall’s numbers have been suppressed all year by the Jets falling way behind early, but they’re favorites this week at home.
Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will be all too happy to have an alternative to putting the game in the hands of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, or anyone else the Jets find willing to play quarterback.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Chuba Hubbard OVER 73.5 yards vs. Green Bay Packers (-115)
The battle for number-one option in the Panthers’ backfield has been decided in a decisive manner the past four weeks.
Free-agent acquisition Miles Sanders has been relegated to a pure backup as Chuba Hubbard is averaging almost 25 touches per game over that stretch. I mistakenly thought interim coach Chris Tabor would use the final several games to test out Bryce Young. Giving the top draft pick as many opportunities for live reps as possible.
But the Panthers aren’t protecting their draft spot – they traded their first-round pick this season (for Young). They’re free to do anything they see fit to win football games.
Right now, that’s running with Hubbard. It’s likely to continue against a Packers defense suddenly leaking oil after a strong November. Rachaad White went wild last week against Green Bay, and since Week 10 the Packers are allowing almost 160 yards on the ground per game.
This number is higher than I’d expected, but if Hubbard’s workload stays consistent, he should reach this mark on Sunday.
Javonte Williams UNDER 55.5 yards vs. New England Patriots (-115)
This is a public service announcement: watching this game could be hazardous to your health.
If you’re going to spend Christmas Eve night watching football, you’d better make sure it’s worth it. And I’m not sure this game fits the bill.
The Broncos are… fine. They’re an okay team, probably not going anywhere in the playoffs but with a decent chance of at least qualifying for the postseason.
The Patriots, on the other hand, are putrid. Abysmal. Awful.
Some fans have waited 20+ years to hear those words, and all the good times of the Tom Brady era came due this year. New England stands at 3-11 and is likely secretly hoping their record stays low enough to procure a much-needed weapon in the passing game in April’s draft.
However… if you’re watching it, you almost have to have a bet riding. The one thing New England does well is stopping the run.
How well? They’re second in the league, surrendering less than 85 yards per game. That’s also with that awful record, suggesting teams have held leads and pounded the rock against them all season. In the past three games, that number is down to a microscopic 61 yards per game at a mark of 2.6 yards per carry.
To top it all off, the Patriots allow 17 fewer rushing yards per game on the road than they do at home.
Williams is a good bet for 15 carries or so. However, at 3.4 yards per carry over his last seven games, he’s a fade for this week.
BetRivers Sports SECOND CHANCE
BONUS, No Guts No Glory Saturday Play: Austin Ekeler UNDER 38.5 yards vs. Buffalo Bills (-115)
Look at that number. 38.5 yards? For Austin Ekeler, one of the NFL’s most consistent running backs these past four years?
Well, the Chargers are a mess right now. Coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco were fired after last week’s 63-21 loss to the Raiders, and now interim coach Giff Smith is in charge for the rest of what’s become a lost season in L.A.
These may be Ekeler’s final days in a Chargers uniform, as his contract expires after this season, and there’s obviously considerable doubt around the future of the franchise.
But only 38.5 yards? Well, the Chargers are double-digit underdogs, and the Bills are stingy against running backs. Compounding matters, Ekeler hasn’t seemed to be 100 percent for the past several games, playing only about half the snaps in two of the past three contests for the Chargers.
There’s no contract charge here either – the Chargers have likely made up their minds one way or another, and the market will bear the value of Ekeler’s next deal – not his stat line in a December game at the end of a lost season.
Finally, while his total is only 38.5 yards, the juice is -120. I’m going to take that hint and go under.
Rob’s Week 16 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+553)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Breece Hall OVER 46.5 yards (-115)
- Chuba Hubbard OVER 73.5 yards (-115)
- Javonte Williams UNDER 55.5 yards (-115)