Which NFL rushers are in for a big day on Sunday? Anyone due for a bad week? The best NFL rushing yards parlay picks for week 15.
We’ll get to the NFL rushing yards parlay for Week 15 after a quick look back at last week’s winner!
Kyren Williams lit it up for the Rams, while D’Andre Swift was stifled against the Dallas Cowboys. The pivotal pick came in that Rams game, where we had the over on 44.5 yards for Baltimore’s Keaton Mitchell.
In five games, the story for Mitchell has been explosive runs on limited opportunities. The hope, following Baltimore’s bye week, was those opportunities would increase.
At halftime, however, it wasn’t looking good as Mitchell had only three carries for 19 yards. But out of the locker room, Baltimore’ second play was a carry around left end where Mitchell exploded for 27 yards. We cashed our +546 parlay!
In the end, Mitchell again averaged six yards per carry, but shared time with Gus Edwards (2/5 yards per carry.)
Maybe someday Baltimore will fully realize what they’ve got in this guy. But until then… onto Week 15.
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 60.5 yards vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-110)
Here’s a name you probably thought you’d seen the last of in NFL rushing yards parlays!
But it’s a small Sunday slate this week with plenty of iffy statuses due to injury – including New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson, who missed last week against Pittsburgh, opening the door for Elliott to take 100% of New England’s running back touches.
Zeke paid off with 68 yards on 22 carries, modest production but ample opportunity against a tough Pittsburgh defense. Now he gets a Kansas City group coming off a deflating loss to the Bills and allowing five yards per carry over their past five contests.
(If you’re into total yards plays, know that Elliott caught seven passes for 72 yards last week – and Kansas City ranks bottom-five in receiving yards allowed to running backs).
But we’ll stick to the rushing yards and hope that Elliott is in line for another 20 carries to get us to this number.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Justin Fields UNDER 58.5 yards at Cleveland Browns (-115)
As strong a season as it’s been for Detroit, last week had to be frustrating.
Time and again, Chicago QB Justin Fields escaped for critical first-down runs, extending drives, and then breaking Detroit’s back with an 11-yard TD scramble in the fourth quarter. The Lions had no answer.
So what, you ask? Fields’ running was the story of the day… and he still had just 58 yards or a dozen carries.
Now Fields gets the considerably tougher Cleveland Browns defense, who are just plain brutal to quarterbacks. Cleveland allows only 13.9 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, and that’s against a schedule that’s included two games with Lamar Jackson.
Meanwhile, Chicago has big decisions to make in the none-too-distant future regarding their coaching staff and what to do with two picks destined for the Top 10 of April’s draft. You’d think their game plan would reflect a need to learn as much about their young quarterback as possible – and we’ve pretty firmly established he’s a solid runner.
How can Fields go through progressions against an above-average pass rush? Cleveland presents a great chance to find out – because they won’t be giving him many chances to run.
BetMGM Sports Special SPECIAL OFFER
Bijan Robinson OVER 63.5 yards vs. Carolina Panthers (-115)
In the season opener and Robinson’s NFL debut, the rookie running back from Texas took just 10 carries for 56 yards against the Panthers.
Fast forward three months and Carolina has fired its head coach amidst a 1-12 start to the 2023 season. Much of this can be attributed to the first-year struggles of quarterback Bryce Young, but a porous run defense makes it easy for teams to build a lead and maintain their advantage against the Panthers.
Eliminating a week 7 outing where a migraine headache limited Robinson to just one carry in a Falcons win against Tampa Bay, the rookie is averaging 14 carries per contest and has gotten double-digit carries every time out. He’s up to 17 carries per game in the past month, averaging just over 68 yards per contest.
That’s a little close for comfort with a number of 63.5, but here’s the tiebreaker: running backs who see 15+ touches are performing particularly well against Carolina, ranked 22nd against the run for the 2023 NFL season. Locked in a tight (but ugly) NFC South race with the Saints and Buccaneers – all three teams stand at 6-7 going into Week 15 – the Falcons aren’t too concerned with style points, just wins.
That bodes perfectly for giving Robinson the ball 20 times on Sunday and letting him steadily work his way past this number. Take out that one-carry outing against Tampa Bay, and Robinson’s averaging exactly 65 yards rushing per game this season. This week projects to be an above-average matchup.
BetRivers Sports SECOND CHANCE
Rob’s Week 15 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+553)
- Ezekiel Elliott OVER 60.5 yards (-110)
- Justin Fields UNDER 58.5 yards (-115)
- Bijan Robinson OVER 63.5 yards (-115)
Onto Week 16…