We look at the NFL’s best bets for week 14 rushing yards parlay, plus a bonus rushing prop for Monday Night Football!
We’ve got a three-player rushing yards parlay for NFL Sunday, plus a bonus Monday Night Football rushing play for Week 14!
But first, a look back at yet another 2-1 finish in Week 13.
Jahmyr Gibbs almost hit his prop number (43.5) on the first drive of the game after breaking off a 36-yard carry to get us our first win. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans limited Denver’s Javonte Williams in a big win for AFC playoff positioning.
All we need was New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson, who had 39 yards in the first quarter as we appeared well on our way to cashing. But disaster struck when Stevenson became the latest victim of the infamous “hip drop tackle”, ending both his day and our parlay.
Tough break. Stevenson was one of our favorite players to bet this season. Just means we’ll need tov find some new targets, starting this week…
DraftKings Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Kyren Williams OVER 67.5 yards at Baltimore Ravens (-120)
I really like this Ravens defense, so I was surprised when I found myself looking at this rushing yard prop over and over again.
But here’s the thinking – the Rams’ path to an upset in this game involves veteran QB Matthew Stafford throwing to his talented array of receivers, including Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, and Puka Nacua (questionable with an injury).
However, the Ravens’ pass defense is grading out as one of the stingiest in the past 25 years of the NFL. Better have a backup plan.
Enter Williams, who saw 24 touches last week in only his second game back from an injury. The Ravens’ profile against running backs isn’t awful, but it’s decidedly the area to attack on this defense as Baltimore rates 21st against the run over their past four games.
Lastly, Williams isn’t seeing a ton of competition in Los Angeles, with Royce Freeman the only other running back to see a carry last week against Cleveland (literally – Freeman saw ONE carry).
Add in an iffy East Coast weather forecast this Sunday and it becomes clear than Kyren Williams, one of the breakout running backs of 2023, should continue his impressive debut this weekend.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Keaton Mitchell OVER 44.5 yards vs. Los Angeles Rams (-120)
I’m going to make it easy on you this week and allow you to focus on this Rams/Ravens game for two of our plays.
This one is somewhat more speculative than Williams, however.
Mitchell’s been remarkably efficient since making his debut in week 9 vs. Seattle. He averages 9.3 yards per carry, having scored a pair of touchdowns and led the Ravens in rushing in two of his four outings.
That’s the question, however – workload. A three-carry outing against Cleveland followed the Seattle breakout, but he returned to 8-9 carry territory in the last two games against Cincinnati and the Chargers.
Regardless of the number of touches, Mitchell averaged 7-plus yards per carry in all but one game thus far, and the Ravens are coming off a bye week in which they’ve hopefully sorted out their backfield distribution.
My guess is it’s trending in Mitchell’s direction. He saw 32 snaps against the Chargers before the bye (compared to 18 for Gus Edwards) and 46% of running back carries. The goal here is more of a 2:1 split in Mitchell’s favor, with Edwards dominating short-yardage work and Mitchell getting the ball between the 20s – and, most importantly to us, the opportunities for big plays.
For the season, the Rams are a league-average defense against the run though they’ve improved of late. But an increased workload for a player with productivity like Mitchell’s is too good to pass up.
D’Andre Swift UNDER 49.5 yards at Dallas Cowboys (-115)
I need to be careful of overreacting to one game, because it seems like a lot of people are downgrading the Eagles after last week’s 42-19 debacle of a home loss to San Fransisco.
This is still one of the NFC’s best teams, and its’ best rushing offense. But it’s fair to ask where Swift fits into that equation as time goes on.
Swift left early in the San Francisco loss with an undisclosed injury but avoided this week’s injury report. So that’s good. Here’s what’s not so great – the injury occurred in the final few minutes of the game (no idea why he was on the field, with Philly down 23 points).
And despite the Eagles only being in legitimate ‘catch-up’ mode from the late third quarter on, Swift saw only a half-dozen carries. Philadelphia continues to mix in Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, and even discussion around an increased role for Rashaad Penny has gotten some play this week (we’ll believe that when we see it).
If you’re looking for touchdown production, we already know the story at the goal line with Jalen Hurts and the increasingly scrutinized “Brotherly Shove” play.
Compounding issues is a Dallas defense allowing only 83 rushing yards per game at home this season to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry.
Philadelphia’s smack in the middle of their toughest stretch of the season, and with another road game at Seattle on deck a continued sharing of the workload seems likely.
Bet365 Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Monday Night Football Rushing Prop: Derrick Henry OVER 56.5 yards at Miami Dolphins (-115)
I get the relatively low number. Tennessee’s going to fall behind and have to pass to play catch up with Miami.
Here’s the thing, though – they can’t. The Titans are much better served leaning on Henry and their running game for as long as possible, and cutting their losses if/when Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and friends start to pull away.
It’s not unprecedented – the Commanders got destroyed by the Dolphins last week, and still managed 138 rushing yards for the game.
Tyjae Spears is earning more of a role for the Titans – that’s why it’s a bonus play – but I like Henry’s chances to hit this mark on Monday night in Miami.
Caesars Sports SPECIAL OFFER
Rob’s Week 14 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+546)
(All odds from DraftKings)
- Kyren Williams OVER 67.5 yards (-120)
- Keaton Mitchell OVER 44.5 yards (-120)
- D’Andre Swift UNDER 49.5 yards (-115)