Over? Under? Week 13 is here in the NFL. Let’s take a look at the best rushing props for your parlay picks this week.
The Week 13 NFL Rushing Yards parlay takes us into December – when playoff spots are decided, and new faces emerge among the league’s top rushers.
Last week’s picks reminded us why we enjoy betting these props so much! All three of my selections came down to the final carry, as Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren JUST got us across the finish line with 49 rushing yards in a win over Cincinnati.
Warren was up to 49 yards on his twelfth carry and was stopped for no gain on attempt No. 13 as the Steelers attempted to line up a field goal. Watching a referee spot the ball, praying he’ll place it down within a yard of the previous line of scrimmage? Now that’s fun!
In what was possibly the NFL’s Game of the Year so far, the Eagles weathered 16 carries from James Cook to keep the Buffalo running back to 43 rushing yards, just under his total of 46.5. The Birds withstood a pair of carries in overtime. Subduing the Bills’ running back on a day where the rest of the Buffalo offense had their way.
So all I needed was Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor under 80.5 yards. He sat at 78 as Tampa Bay drove for a potential winning score against the Colts. At the time, it seemed the only way to lose would be overtime.
Wrong. Buccaneers fumble, and Taylor takes the Colts’ next snap around right tackle for a game-clinching 13-yard carry. Game over, and parlay over.
Adding literal injury to insult, Taylor was hurt on the play and will miss the next 2-3 games.
It was about the most excitement you can find losing money! Better luck this week?
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 43.5 yards at New Orleans Saints (-115)
Gibbs seems to find his way into these parlays pretty regularly, and that’s because this guy’s talent is tantalizing.
People doubted the Lions when they drafted him at No. 12 overall. But, he’s proven a valuable complement to David Montgomery in one of the NFL’s most productive backfields.
Now, Gibbs has seen double-digit carries in four of the last five games while maintaining a 5.2 yards per carry average. This week, he gets a Saints defenses that’s been sliced and diced for 170 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, including 228 yards last week against Atlanta.
New Orleans isn’t healthy. With Marshon Lattimore out of the lineup while Cam Jordan and Pete Werner are questionable this week.
But know what else isn’t exactly healthy? Detroit’s passing game. Jared Goff served as a Thanksgiving turkey last week, losing three fumbles in a loss to the Packers. The passing game is humming along, but Detroit is fortunate to have avoided a two-game losing streak. Look for the Lions to lean on Gibbs, Montgomery, and the rushing game in Week 13.
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Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 62.5 yards vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-105)
I’m playing all the classics this week.
Stevenson and Gibbs have appeared in as many parlays as any NFL running back this season. But again, we’re looking to play numbers and situations as much as players.
This week is a good spot for Stevenson, a player who sees a majority of his team’s carries with an uncertain quarterback situation and a weather forecast that favors the running game.
Best of all, he does so against a Chargers defense that’s 30th against the run over the past three games, going cross-country on the road after a brutally physical loss to the Ravens last Sunday night.
(To be fair, “brutally physical” can be applied to most contests involving the Ravens, one of the hardest-hitting teams I’ve seen in recent years.)
Anyway, Stevenson has back-to-back games with 20+ carries, and there’s not much reason to believe the Patriots won’t employ a similar strategy against the Chargers on Sunday.
Javonte Williams UNDER 59.5 yards at Houston Texans (-115)
How about these Broncos? After the infamous 70-20 loss to Miami in week three, it’s safe to say no one thought we’d start December discussing Denver’s playoff prospects.
But a five-game winning streak has the Broncos in the conversation for the postseason with Sean Payton in the talk for Coach of the Year.
It’s just that, well…
The Broncos are doing some of this with smoke and mirrors. While avoiding turnovers is a skill, I don’t know that a plus-eight rating over three games (their current figure) is sustainable.
Moreover, the team is still 29th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.9) and a big part of that is their rushing attack.
The good news on Williams is he’s averaged 19.3 carries over the past four games. The bad news? He’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry during that stretch. Meanwhile, he faces a Houston run defense allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game (8th in the NFL).
Williams’ status doesn’t seem to be in doubt for Sunday. However, he briefly left the game against Cleveland last week with a neck injury, with Samaje Perine performing well in his absence. A tough matchup, a possible work share, and some impending regression makes me side with the under on this NFL rushing prop.
No Guts, No Glory Play: Chuba Hubbard UNDER 46.5 yards at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120)
It’s been an interesting week in Carolina, where Frank Reich was removed from his duties as coach before completing his first season.
2023 is a lost cause for the Panthers, and for all I know it could be the same for Chris Tabor, the Panthers’ special teams coordinator and interim head coach. But if Tabor wants any chance at the permanent job, he’d be well advised to do a couple things:
- Learn as much as possible about No. 1 draft pick and quarterback Bryce Young in the next six weeks
- Get the most out of the money owner David Tepper spent this past offseason
Neither of these are good news for Hubbard. Dropping Young back 30-35 times a game to pass may not be the way to win with a rookie QB, but the Panthers probably aren’t too concerned with winning (or losing, for that matter, as they don’t even have a first-round pick this coming spring).
But running back Miles Sanders signed a $25 million contract before the 2023 season, and to call him a disappointment would be putting it kindly. 302 rushing yards and one touchdown through 11 games is practice squad-level production, yet Sanders has seen double-digit carries the past two weeks after seemingly losing the starting job to Hubbard.
Add all this to Tampa Bay’s No. 9-rated rushing defense, and it’s a recipe for a quiet day for Chuba Hubbard in Week 13.
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Rob’s Week 13 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+582)
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-105)
- Javonte Williams UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)