After Thanksgiving, there’s still a full slate of NFL Sunday games! Here are some Week 12 rushing yards props to target for your parlay.
Two of our three picks lost by a total of 8.5 yards, as Jahmyr Gibbs and Rico Dowdle couldn’t get to their modest totals.
Neither running back was close enough to consider them ‘bad beats’. However, one key I’ve learned to NFL rushing yards props this season is timing.
Here on the East Coast, these numbers tend to be released around 9 a.m. or 10 a.m. Thursday for Sunday games. By early afternoon, most sportsbooks have numbers available, and by evening those numbers tend to jump or fall by a couple yards.
The lesson? While everyone’s focused on Thursday Night Football games, you can pounce on the best number for your Sunday rushing props! Sometimes a couple of yards can make all the difference.
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Onto Week 12…
Jaylen Warren OVER 48.5 yards at Cincinnati Bengals (-125)
All year, Steelers fans have watched the dynamic between Warren and Najee Harris play out. Harris receiving the bulk of the carries, but Warren showing himself to be the more explosive back (6.2 yards per carry to Harris’ 3.9).
After 10 games, they’re just about equal in rushing yards (Harris 499, Warren 493) but with a difference of 47 carries between them.
So what? Well, Warren’s led the team in rushing for four consecutive weeks. Last week against stingy Cleveland he moved closer to Harris in workload with nine carries to Harris’ 12. Warren rushed for 129 yards and a score, Harris went for 35 yards.
This backfield is moving in one clear direction, and doing so just in time for a meeting with the Bengals who are 31st in the league with 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Cincinnati just lost QB Joe Burrow for the season, and the Steelers prefer a grind-it-out style conducive to cold, weather-affected Midwestern football, which Sunday promises to be.
What else? Well, after last week’s game, Najee Harris let his feelings be known to Pittsburgh media, indicating he was “tired of this (stuff).”
Two days later, offensive coordinator Matt Canada was sent packing. Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan will take over the bulk of the play calling duties, with an eye towards simplifying the offense for Kenny Pickett.
But Sullivan’s also seen Jaylen Warren’s play this season, and while Warren may bever be a 20-carry running back, if he continues to average 6+ yards per carry he won’t need to be.
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James Cook UNDER 46.5 yards at Philadelphia Eagles (-115)
Another week, another lead rusher who’s about to get locked up by the Philadelphia run defense.
The game itself looks like a decent spot for Buffalo, who throttled the Jets at home last week, against the Eagles who are coming home off a short week and an emotional, come-from-behind Monday Night Football road win in Kansas City.
However, the Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco was a bright spot, going for 89 yards on 19 carries in a valiant attempt to keep an uncharacteristically disjointed Kansas City passing game on schedule.
The Bills are at their most successful, however, when quarterback Josh Allen is operating the run game in combination with Cook and Latavius Murray. The Jets’ woeful offense was no match for Buffalo in a get-right game, but you’d expect Buffalo to require a much more detailed game plan against the league-leading Eagles.
If Murray continues to cut into Cook’s carries and Buffalo is unable to build another decisive advantage, Cook could find rough sledding against the league’s No. 1 rush defense. The Eagles allow only 63.3 rushing yards per game at Lincoln Financial Field and Cook and Murray figure to alternate with Allen in attempting to crack the league’s stingiest unit.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 80.5 yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-115)
I’ve been doing these props all season, and I’m pretty certain 80.5 is the highest single-game rushing prop I’ve seen for a player. Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry – none of them saw props this high.
So why Taylor, in a backfield where Zack Moss still hasn’t completely ceded his role. Sure, Moss was in single-digit carries the past two games, as you’d expect after Taylor signed a massive contract extension.
But you’d want to feel confident in Taylor seeing 20+ carries to take this over, and you’d probably want to see him facing a defense that ranks lower than No. 6 in the NFL against the run like Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers are surrendering only 90 yards per game on the ground this season and are up to No. 2 in the league over the last three contests at a paltry 70 yards per game. So you’re asking Taylor, on his own, to essentially reach the season average for an entire team this Sunday. The value here is on the under.
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Rob’s Week 12 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+529)
(All Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Jaylen Warren OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-125)
- James Cook UNDER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Jonathan Taylor UNDER 80.5 rushing yards (-115)