Can the NFL Rushing Yards make it two weeks in a row? Your best bets for the rushing yards parlay in Week 11 covered here.
Before we get to the Week 11 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay, a look back at our best week of the season!
The Week 10 rushing props were a perfect 4-0, with the +495 parlay hitting as well as our bonus play on Kyler Murray over 26.5 yards!
Rhamondre Stevenson was the closest thing to a bright spot in another lost Sunday for the Patriots’ offense, Bijan Robinson approached 100 yards in the Falcons’ loss to Arizona, and the Saints went away from Alvin Kamara early in losing to the Vikings.
Even Murray’s highlight-reel scramble in the final minutes pushed the Cardinals’ QB over the number!
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Can we keep it rolling in Week 11? Time to find out…
Rico Dowdle OVER 27.5 yards at Carolina Panthers (-120)
First things first – Dowdle is the backup running back for the Dallas Cowboys behind Tony Pollard.
I point this out because when Dowdle rumbled for 79 yards on a dozen carries last week, fantasy football owners went scrambling to make sure nothing was wrong with Pollard!
A backup running back gets a dozen carries? In a divisional game?
Well, good news. The Cowboys are again double-digit favorites this week in Carolina. With a challenging end-of-season slate on the horizon, you would hope Dallas is fully prepared and won’t take the Panthers lightly.
If not, they could jump to a big lead and get Dowdle a chance to do damage for a second week. This time he’ll be working against the NFL’s 26th-ranked rushing defense, a unit that allowed D’Onta Foreman’s biggest day of the year just last week in a loss to the Bears.
Dowdle averages almost five yards a carry, so this number is well within range with the appropriate workload. The Cowboys hope to make a deep playoff run this year, and it makes sense to preserve Pollard’s legs, particularly when the No. 2 RB is running this well.
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Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 41.5 yards vs. Chicago Bears (-115)
Full disclosure – I looked at this prop with the intention of going against Gibbs and taking the under.
Gibbs is averaging 99 yards rushing in the last three Detroit Lions games, and while you know how high I am on this guy’s talent, the Bears are second in the NFL against the run, and allowing only 61 rushing yards per game over the past three contests.
What’s more, David Montgomery is back and healthy for the Lions, and this game sets up as payback for the former Chicago running back.
Then I saw the number. 41.5 yards?
In seven games this year, Gibbs surpassed this number in five of them and ran for 40 yards exactly in another contest. He’s averaging 17 carries per game since his Week 7 return from an injury. And the Lions showed last week there’s plenty of work to go around in that backfield, as Montgomery went over 100 yards and Gibbs went for 77 yards and two scores in a win over the Chargers.
An average of 5.3 yards per carry will be tough to maintain against Chicago. But even if he lost a full yard off that average, 10 carries would get you home on this wager. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites and should have plenty of opportunity to run the ball.
Don’t bet players – bet numbers. This one’s too good to pass up on your week 11 rushing yards parlay.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 69.5 yards at Washington Commanders (-115)
Everyone thinks they could run an NFL team, right? Here’s a basic test:
You’re Washington’s defensive coordinator this week, and you’ve got to put together a plan to limit the Giants’ offense.
Do you start with:
- Tommy DeVito, an undrafted rookie making his second career start, averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt since his debut, or:
- Saquon Barkley, the second overall selection in 2018, a former Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler?
If you answered Barkley… well, you still couldn’t coach in the NFL, but it is the right answer.
Don’t overthink this one. Barkley is by far the Giants’ best chance of keeping this game competitive. The Commanders’ best chance of victory is taking an early lead and making the Giants one-dimensional. The Commanders rank 21st in the league against the run, but that number improves to 11th when looking at every team’s most recent three games.
Lastly, Barkley was limited in practice Wednesday. His contract squabble over the offseason received much attention, and while no one would question his dedication to winning and his teammates, I think it’s a stretch to believe Barkley or the Giants want to risk further injury in what’s become a lost season for the G-Men.
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No Guts, No Glory Play: Joshua Dobbs UNDER 29.5 yards at Denver Broncos (-115)
It’s the best way I could find to acknowledge a statistical change and the importance of looking at stats in smaller samples.
Over the 2023 NFL season, Denver’s run defense is, in a word, putrid.
The Broncos rank dead last against the run with almost 160 yards allowed per game. We all remember what Miami did in a 70-20 win in week 3, but Joshua Kelley, Breece Hall, and others have also had banner days against Denver.
However, at home that number goes down to 23 yards allowed on the ground. Not great, but up to 25th in the league from dead last.
And against quarterbacks, the Broncos are allowing 17.7 rush yards per game.
So along comes Dobbs. A feel-good story who’s run wild for 55 yards per game and a rushing touchdown in each game since joining Minnesota.
This year, Dobbs has reached 26 yards rushing in eight of ten starts.
Everything points to another over – but that’s why it’s called the “No Guts, No Glory” play. Take Denver’s defense to limit the new Vikings’ signal caller on the ground Sunday Night.
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Rob’s Week 11 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+540)
(All Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Rico Dowdle OVER 27.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Saquon Barkey UNDER 69.5 rushing yards (-115)