The Week 10 NFL picks for rushing props, plus some extra sports betting advice. We cover your parlay picks here.
Houston’s Dameon Pierce, who I picked to go UNDER 43.5 rushing yards, was scratched from the lineup before Houston’s game with Tampa Bay.
So is that a win? Technically, Pierce finished the with zero rushing yards, which is under 43.5.
But no, it isn’t that easy.
The house rules at any reputable sportsbook will void a bet on a player prop if that player is declared inactive before the game begins. In our case, Pierce was part of a three-player parlay. So he was removed from the wager making it a two-player parlay.
Sportsbooks won’t just keep your money if the player doesn’t play. Now if someone is listed as active, but sits on the bench the entire game, that’s where it gets tricky.
Some sportsbooks say the player must enter the game, while others maintain that simply being active is enough. Be sure to check house rules wherever you place your bets.
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Moving on to Week 10…
Alvin Kamara UNDER 51.5 rush yards at Minnesota Vikings (-125)
Here’s an interesting statistical split: the Minnesota Vikings have a solid rushing defense, ranking 12th in the NFL during the 2023 season.
Looking at just their last three games, however, the Vikings move up to 8th allowing only 83 rush yards per game. And when playing at home, Minnesota is the stingiest rush defense in the NFL with a miniscule 58 yards allowed per game.
Kamara has passed by 51.5 yards on the ground in four of his six contests this year. However, last week against Chicago he went for only 26 yards on nine carries. A big factor was the Saints’ utilization of Taysom Hill in red zone situations, which also impacts Kamara’s touchdown scoring abilities, if you’re interested in such things.
Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller mixed into the lineup as well for a few snaps. Alsom the Vikings’ porous pass defense will provide opportunities for Kamara – but through the air, not on the ground.
The Saints won’t go away from a player like Kamara, but I think he stays under this number again in Week 10.
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Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 47.5 yards vs. Indianapolis Colts (-115)
(This game is over in Frankfurt, Germany, which means a 9:30 a.m. start on the East Coast, so get your plays in early.)
Why can’t we quit this guy?
Rhamondre Stevenson has appeared in more rushing yards parlays this year than any other back, but numbers are numbers.
This week, they’re telling us that the Colts have surrendered an average of 149.7 rushing yards over their past three games, suffering in the absence of defensive lineman Grover Stewart. The Patriots’ passing woes are well known.
Stevenson went for 129 yards on 13 touches last week (87 yards rushing, 42 receiving) while quarterback Mac Jones sputtered through another lackluster performance (5.0 yards per attempt passing). Stevenson is a natural starting point for a struggling offense this week. Particularly against the leaky Colts with Ezekiel Elliott as the only other viable backfield option.
Bijan Robinson OVER 55.5 yards at Arizona Cardinals (-125)
I don’t know. The workload isn’t there for Robinson, not for a top-10 pick at the NFL’s most undervalued position.
He’s averaging 11 carries a game, but if you take out the Week 7 game where he took only one carry, that number moves to 13 carries per game.
But here’s the good news – Robinson averages five yards per carry, the Falcons don’t throw the ball that well, and top receiver Drake London is questionable with a groin injury.
Furthermore, they’re playing the hapless Cardinals, and figure to have a good chance at building a lead switching the game to a run-first script.
Honestly, the number seems just about right. But if Robinson’s going to be the next big thing at running back in the NFL, we need a breakout game. The Cardinals have the 26th-ranked rushing defense, so this is as good a time as any.
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No Guts, No Glory Play: Kyler Murray OVER 26.5 yards vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110)
You forgot all about this guy, didn’t you?
Murray makes his season debut this week for a Cardinals team that most people believe is biding its time before they draft his eventual replacement in April.
But new coach Jonathan Gannon wants to get a long look at Murray before making any final decision about a high draft pick. If the 26-year-old quarterback plays well, maybe Arizona will decide to grab Ohio State’s All-American wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., and give Murray more weapons.
This is all to say that Murray will be fully immersed in the offense and given every opportunity to succeed in the current system. The Falcons allow the 8th-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. Even in his down years Murray averages over six rushing attempts per game.
Keep your eyes on this play. With Murray returning to the lineup, the prop may not be released until closer to game time. However, we like Kyler Murray’s chances of going over the number in his comeback game Sunday.
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Rob’s Week 10 NFL Rushing Yards Parlay (+495)
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Alvin Kamara UNDER 51.5 rushing yards (-125)
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Bijan Robinson OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-125)