As the NFL schedule gets smaller, the parlays get tougher. Which players should you target on your divisional playoffs rushing yards parlay?
Which running backs have the most playable rushing yard props for this weekend’s parlay in the NFL divisional playoffs?
Three more weeks. Three more glorious, fleeting weeks of football before the long, cold offseason begins. How can we make the most of it?
One thing I learned from last week’s slate – you can’t be scared. I saw a play I badly wanted to try, or at least offer as a bonus, but shied away because of lineup uncertainty.
Big mistake. With only four games on the slate, it’s time to take these opportunities while they’re still presenting themselves. With that said, the Divisional Playoffs Rushing Yards Parlay.
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Aaron Jones OVER 67.5 yards at San Francisco 49ers (-110)
This one is tough, because it goes against one of my rules – don’t overreact to the last thing you saw. And that was Jones decimating the Cowboys defense for 115 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay’s dismantling of the Cowboys during the wild card round.
But we’ve seen this for a while now. Over the past four games, in fact, Jones has averaged 23 touches and 134 total yards per contest. He’s a top-10 leaguewide performer in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact – those key metrics that show how good a running back is at grinding out an extra yard or two at the end of a carry.
And those yards add up en route to hitting the over. Know what else is adding up? Evidence against this 49ers run defense.
Since Week 13, San Francsico is averaging the league’s highest yards per carry (5.1 per attempt) on the ground. The Packers, a zone-running team, have a good matchup here and will need Jones’ effectiveness to stay competitive with heavily favored San Francisco.
As far as backfield competition, A.J. Dillon figures to be a game-time decision for the Packers, but I’m not sure it matters. Jones is the hottest of hands right now, and the Packers would be foolish to take any of the workload away.
Jordan Love was great against Dallas, but the Packers can’t count on San Francisco routinely busting coverage for free touchdowns. They’ll need to ride the consistency of Jones if they hope to be playing past this week.
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Detroit Lions/Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs UNDER
Yeah, I know. What a cop-out, right? Fading EVERY running back in this game and not singling out a particular player for a rushing yard?
But here’s the problem – these defenses are stuffing everyone. Over the entire season, Detroit ranked second in run yards allowed in the NFL with Tampa Bay not far behind them in fourth place. Since Week 14, these are the top two rush defenses in the entire NFL.
What’s more, both teams boast explosive passing attacks. Tampa Bay’s best chance at an upset is to target Mike Evans and Chris Godwin early and often against a Lions defense that’s ranked 31st against wide receivers in the same time period they’ve been No. 1 against the run (since Week 14.)
Meanwhile, Detroit boasts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, who continue to rack up numbers weekly, plus a pair of running backs who can be equally explosive in the passing game – particularly rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
Quarterbacks? Jared Goff is zero threat to run, and Baker Mayfield’s banged up and just looking to stay in one piece and on the field.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s Gibbs or David Montgomery of the Lions, or Tampa Bay’s one-man show in Rachaad White. You’ve got to take a stand this time of year, and you should go against any of these running backs.
(For parlay purposes, we’ll use White at Under 54.5 yards.)
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Isiah Pacheco OVER 61.5 yards at Buffalo Bills (-115)
Here’s this week’s “stat you’ve probably heard already, but still seems unbelievable.”
Sunday will be Patrick Mahomes’ FIRST road playoff game.
Not this season. Ever. Unreal, isn’t it? But that’s how good the Chiefs have been during his career.
Regardless, the crowd in Buffalo will be fueled up (in more ways than one, with a 6:30 p.m. kickoff and 20-degree temperatures) to welcome Mahomes to the experience. With an inconsistent passing game this season, the Chiefs would be wise to lean on their workhorse running back.
Pacheco missed the Chiefs’ Week 13 loss to the Bills but has 15+ carries in six of his last seven games. That includes the whopping 24 totes in last week’s ice-cold victory against the Dolphins. Conditions aren’t as extreme this week, but a solid running game and an ornery defense have shown the Chiefs there’s more than one way to win all season long.
The Buffalo rush defense is average in most measurements, allowing the 15th-most rushing yards to opponents over the 2023 season. Their yards per carry numbers, however, have taken a downward turn in their past six games.
Look for Kansas City to continue leaning on Pacheco as they look to extend their title defense another week.
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Rob’s Divisional Playoff Rushing Yards Parlay
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
- Aaron Jones OVER 67.5 yards (-110)
- Rachaad White UNDER 54.5 yards (-135)
- Isiah Pacheco OVER 61.5 yards (-115)