Which NFL Head Coach will take home top honors? A look at the history of the Coach of the Year Award, and the favorites (and underdogs) for the 2023 NFL season.
The NFL Coach of the Year Award may not be as glamorous or as well-known as the MVP award, or the Rookie of the Year voting.
But from a gambling perspective, Coach of the Year might be the most interesting of all the NFL awards. Why? You’re not just betting on who will win the most games, or the coach of the team that wins the Super Bowl.
NFL Coach Of The Year History
To explain, let’s look at the last 10 winners of the NFL’s Coach of the Year award:
| YEAR | COACH, TEAM | TEAM’S RECORD IN PREVIOUS SEASON | TEAM’S RECORD IN AWARD-WINNING SEASON |
| 2022 | Brian Daboll, New York Giants | 4-13 | 9-7, won Wild Card game |
| 2021 | Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans | 11-5 | 12-5, AFC’s No. 1 seed |
| 2020 | Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns | 6-10 | 11-5, won Wild Card game |
| 2019 | John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 14-2, AFC’s No. 1 seed |
| 2018 | Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 12-4, NFC North champions |
| 2017 | Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams | 4-12 | 11-5, NFC West champions |
| 2016 | Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 | 13-3, NFC East champions |
| 2015 | Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers | 7-8-1 | 15-1, lost Super Bowl 50 |
| 2014 | Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 11-5, lost wild card game |
| 2013 | Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers | 7-9 | 12-4, NFC South champions |
Strategies For Making The Right Pick
So what do we learn from the list above?
Pick a coach who’s going to win 10 or more games
Yes, Brian Daboll got it done last year with a record of 9-7-1. But every other coach who’s won over the past decade won at least 11 regular season games.
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This may seem like an obvious piece of advice, but it’s important to remember in the context of…
You’re looking for improvement, not necessarily excellence.
Who’s the best coach in the NFL?
Maybe you said two-time Super Bowl champion Andy Reid? Or six-time champion Bill Belichick? Or maybe you prefer the consistency of John Harbaugh, or an up-and-comer like Nick Sirianni?
We’ll get to the odds for 2023 in a minute. But suffice to say none of these coaches are high on the list. Why?
Because Coach of the Year rewards improvement more than outstanding performance. Look at the winners above – seven out of 10 coached a team that had a losing record the previous year.
If Reid and Sirianni get their teams back to the Super Bowl again, that’s meeting expectations, not exceeding them.
Don’t worry about playoff success.
Coach of the Year is an award based on the regular season. Besides, in the past ten years, only Ron Rivera in 2015 won even a single playoff game in the year he won the award.
Finally: look for a team without a ready-made on-field explanation for improvement.
A half-dozen NFL teams finished exactly 7-10 last year.
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns
- New Orleans Saints
- New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans
Who do you consider the likeliest of those teams to improve this year? If you said the Jets, it’s probably because they acquired Aaron Rodgers, right?
So if the Jets jump to 10-7 or 11-6 and make the playoffs, that’s where I’d expect the credit to go – not to coach Robert Saleh. If the Jets jump to 12-5 or 13-4, maybe it’s a moot point. But I’d rather bet on a coach without a ‘convenient’ reason for his improvement.
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Odds for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year
Let’s look at the odds for 2023 (courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook):
| COACH (Team) | ODDS |
| Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions) | +800 |
| Sean Payton (Denver Broncos) | +1100 |
| Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears) | +1400 |
| Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons) | +1400 |
| Robert Saleh (New York Jets) | +1600 |
| Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers) | +1600 |
| Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins) | +2000 |
| Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers) | +2000 |
| Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks) | +2000 |
| Doug Pedersen (Jacksonville Jaguars) | +2000 |
| Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints) | +2000 |
| Demeco Ryans (Houston Texans) | +2500 |
| Frank Reich (Carolina Panthers) | +2500 |
| Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts) | +2500 |
| Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers) | +2500 |
| Bill Belichick (New England Patriots) | +2500 |
| Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns) | +2500 |
| Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals) | +2800 |
| Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers) | +3000 |
| Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams) | +3000 |
| John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens) | +3000 |
| Jonathan Gannon (Arizona Cardinals) | +3500 |
| Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles) | +3500 |
| Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders) | +3500 |
| Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans) | +3500 |
| Brian Daboll (New York Giants) | +3500 |
| Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders) | +3500 |
| Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings) | +3500 |
| Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills) | +3500 |
| Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys) | +4000 |
| Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | +5000 |
| Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs) | +5000 |
Campbell and Payton as the respective favorites from each conference make a lot of sense. The Lions are everyone’s preseason darlings, while the Broncos had a disastrous 2022 and seem poised for a bounce back.
Who Should You Bet for NFL Coach of the Year?
I’ve got a favorite from each conference:
NFC: Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (+2000)
Honestly, it was too close to call between Allen and the Falcons’ Arthur Smith. I wouldn’t blame you if you chose Smith, but the longer odds with Allen were my deciding factor.
The NFC South, to be frank, is a mess. Quarterback questions abound, and last year’s division champion finished 8-9.
But Tom Brady’s gone from Tampa Bay, and Bryce Young has a steep learning curve in Carolina. Saints quarterback Derek Carr, in from Las Vegas, has more NFL career starts than the division’s other QBs combined, and a potentially impressive array of weapons in WR Chris Olave, young TE Juwan Johnson, and the duo of Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller to split time at running back until Alvin Kamara’s back from suspension.
What’s more, the Saints have the division’s best defense, and players like Marshon Lattimore and Cameron Jordan are getting to points in their careers where they need to capitalize on their remaining years.
Lastly, the schedule – the Saints have only five games against playoff teams from a year ago, and two of those are with the Buccaneers (again, no more Brady.) With four of their last six contests at home, I like New Orleans’ chance to pick up 3-4 more wins than last year, grab the conference’s weakest division and give Allen a shot at a big price.
AFC: Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans (+2500)
I’m going against one of my own rules here, because I’m not sure the Texans can win 10+ games in 2023.
But I do think they can win the AFC South, and that should be enough. If Ryans can take a team with a rookie quarterback from 3-13-1 to a point where they’re hosting a playoff game, he’ll be tough to deny.
Also in his favor? Exactly half of the last 10 coaches to win Coach of the Year were in their first year on the job!
Why should we believe in the Texans as division champs? For one, who would you rather believe in?
The Jaguars, with a feel-good story and admittedly the division’s best quarterback covering up for a weak offensive line, a weaker secondary, and an overall shaky roster?
The Titans, hoping that the fifth consecutive year of running Derrick Henry into the ground and relying upon mediocre Ryan Tannehill will be the charm?
The Colts, with an unhappy and unavailable Jonathan Taylor, plus a rookie QB and coach of their own?
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So, Why Coach Ryan’s?
Like the NFC South, the AFC South is filled with question marks. But here are a couple things I know:
The Texans hired a defensive-minded coach in a division with a rookie QB (Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson), a struggling QB (Tannehill), and Trevor Lawrence.
They used their first draft pick on CJ Stroud, thought by many to be the most “pro-ready” of the rookie QBs, and backed it up with Will Anderson, an edge rusher thought by many to be the best overall player in the draft.
Offseason acquisition right guard Shaq Mason greatly improves the offensive line led by Laremy Tunsil, while Jimmie Ward came from San Francisco with coach Ryans to combine with Derek Stingley Jr. to give Houston the division’s best secondary.
I wouldn’t make Super Bowl reservations for the Texans. But with expectations this low, winning a weak division should be enough to get bettors to the window with a +2500 ticket on Demeco Ryans.
NFL Coach of the Year FAQs
Where can I bet on NFL Coach of the Year? While many major online sportsbooks like BetMGM, DraftSharks, and FanDuel offer NFL Coach of the Year odds, be sure to check your state’s rules.
States like New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, as well as Virginia do not allow users to bet on the NFL Coach of the Year award.
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