NFL Coach of the Year Odds 2023

Which NFL Head Coach will take home top honors? A look at the history of the Coach of the Year Award, and the favorites (and underdogs) for the 2023 NFL season.

The NFL Coach of the Year Award may not be as glamorous or as well-known as the MVP award, or the Rookie of the Year voting.

But from a gambling perspective, Coach of the Year might be the most interesting of all the NFL awards. Why? You’re not just betting on who will win the most games, or the coach of the team that wins the Super Bowl.

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NFL Coach Of The Year History

To explain, let’s look at the last 10 winners of the NFL’s Coach of the Year award:

2022Brian Daboll, New York Giants4-139-7, won Wild Card game
2021Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans11-512-5, AFC’s No. 1 seed
2020Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns6-1011-5, won Wild Card game
2019John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens10-614-2, AFC’s No. 1 seed
2018Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears5-1112-4, NFC North champions
2017Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams4-1211-5, NFC West champions
2016Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys4-1213-3, NFC East champions
2015Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers7-8-115-1, lost Super Bowl 50
2014Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals10-611-5, lost wild card game
2013Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers7-912-4, NFC South champions
NFL coach of the year

Strategies For Making The Right Pick

So what do we learn from the list above?

Pick a coach who’s going to win 10 or more games

Yes, Brian Daboll got it done last year with a record of 9-7-1. But every other coach who’s won over the past decade won at least 11 regular season games.

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This may seem like an obvious piece of advice, but it’s important to remember in the context of…

You’re looking for improvement, not necessarily excellence.

Who’s the best coach in the NFL?

Maybe you said two-time Super Bowl champion Andy Reid? Or six-time champion Bill Belichick? Or maybe you prefer the consistency of John Harbaugh, or an up-and-comer like Nick Sirianni?

andy reid

We’ll get to the odds for 2023 in a minute. But suffice to say none of these coaches are high on the list. Why?

Because Coach of the Year rewards improvement more than outstanding performance. Look at the winners above – seven out of 10 coached a team that had a losing record the previous year.

If Reid and Sirianni get their teams back to the Super Bowl again, that’s meeting expectations, not exceeding them.

Don’t worry about playoff success.

Coach of the Year is an award based on the regular season. Besides, in the past ten years, only Ron Rivera in 2015 won even a single playoff game in the year he won the award.

Finally: look for a team without a ready-made on-field explanation for improvement.

A half-dozen NFL teams finished exactly 7-10 last year.

  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Cleveland Browns
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Jets
  • Tennessee Titans

Who do you consider the likeliest of those teams to improve this year? If you said the Jets, it’s probably because they acquired Aaron Rodgers, right?

So if the Jets jump to 10-7 or 11-6 and make the playoffs, that’s where I’d expect the credit to go – not to coach Robert Saleh. If the Jets jump to 12-5 or 13-4, maybe it’s a moot point. But I’d rather bet on a coach without a ‘convenient’ reason for his improvement.

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Odds for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year

Let’s look at the odds for 2023 (courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook):

Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions)+800
Sean Payton (Denver Broncos)+1100
Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears)+1400
Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons)+1400
Robert Saleh (New York Jets)+1600
Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers)+1600
Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins)+2000
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers)+2000
Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks)+2000
Doug Pedersen (Jacksonville Jaguars)+2000
Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints)+2000
Demeco Ryans (Houston Texans)+2500
Frank Reich (Carolina Panthers)+2500
Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts)+2500
Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers)+2500
Bill Belichick (New England Patriots)+2500
Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns)+2500
Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals)+2800
Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers)+3000
Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams)+3000
John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens)+3000
Jonathan Gannon (Arizona Cardinals)+3500
Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles)+3500
Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders)+3500
Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans)+3500
Brian Daboll (New York Giants)+3500
Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders)+3500
Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings)+3500
Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills)+3500
Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys)+4000
Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)+5000
Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs)+5000

Campbell and Payton as the respective favorites from each conference make a lot of sense. The Lions are everyone’s preseason darlings, while the Broncos had a disastrous 2022 and seem poised for a bounce back.

Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions)

Who Should You Bet for NFL Coach of the Year?

I’ve got a favorite from each conference:

NFC: Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (+2000)

Honestly, it was too close to call between Allen and the Falcons’ Arthur Smith. I wouldn’t blame you if you chose Smith, but the longer odds with Allen were my deciding factor.

The NFC South, to be frank, is a mess. Quarterback questions abound, and last year’s division champion finished 8-9.

But Tom Brady’s gone from Tampa Bay, and Bryce Young has a steep learning curve in Carolina. Saints quarterback Derek Carr, in from Las Vegas, has more NFL career starts than the division’s other QBs combined, and a potentially impressive array of weapons in WR Chris Olave, young TE Juwan Johnson, and the duo of Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller to split time at running back until Alvin Kamara’s back from suspension.

What’s more, the Saints have the division’s best defense, and players like Marshon Lattimore and Cameron Jordan are getting to points in their careers where they need to capitalize on their remaining years.

Lastly, the schedule – the Saints have only five games against playoff teams from a year ago, and two of those are with the Buccaneers (again, no more Brady.) With four of their last six contests at home, I like New Orleans’ chance to pick up 3-4 more wins than last year, grab the conference’s weakest division and give Allen a shot at a big price.

NFC: Dennis Allen

AFC: Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans (+2500)

I’m going against one of my own rules here, because I’m not sure the Texans can win 10+ games in 2023.

But I do think they can win the AFC South, and that should be enough. If Ryans can take a team with a rookie quarterback from 3-13-1 to a point where they’re hosting a playoff game, he’ll be tough to deny.

Also in his favor? Exactly half of the last 10 coaches to win Coach of the Year were in their first year on the job!

Why should we believe in the Texans as division champs? For one, who would you rather believe in?

The Jaguars, with a feel-good story and admittedly the division’s best quarterback covering up for a weak offensive line, a weaker secondary, and an overall shaky roster?

The Titans, hoping that the fifth consecutive year of running Derrick Henry into the ground and relying upon mediocre Ryan Tannehill will be the charm?

The Colts, with an unhappy and unavailable Jonathan Taylor, plus a rookie QB and coach of their own?

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So, Why Coach Ryan’s?

Like the NFC South, the AFC South is filled with question marks. But here are a couple things I know:

The Texans hired a defensive-minded coach in a division with a rookie QB (Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson), a struggling QB (Tannehill), and Trevor Lawrence.

They used their first draft pick on CJ Stroud, thought by many to be the most “pro-ready” of the rookie QBs, and backed it up with Will Anderson, an edge rusher thought by many to be the best overall player in the draft.

Offseason acquisition right guard Shaq Mason greatly improves the offensive line led by Laremy Tunsil, while Jimmie Ward came from San Francisco with coach Ryans to combine with Derek Stingley Jr. to give Houston the division’s best secondary.

I wouldn’t make Super Bowl reservations for the Texans. But with expectations this low, winning a weak division should be enough to get bettors to the window with a +2500 ticket on Demeco Ryans.

AFC: Demeco Ryans

NFL Coach of the Year FAQs

Where can I bet on NFL Coach of the Year? While many major online sportsbooks like BetMGM, DraftSharks, and FanDuel offer NFL Coach of the Year odds, be sure to check your state’s rules.

States like New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, as well as Virginia do not allow users to bet on the NFL Coach of the Year award.

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