Rob Senior previews the New York Mets vs. New York Yankees on Tuesday, July 26. He provides his expert prediction as well as best bets.
Daily MLB Picks: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees, Wednesday, July 26
Date & Time: Wednesday, July 26, 7:05 P.M. Eastern
Moneyline: New York Mets (+130) vs. New York Yankees (-150)
Runline: Mets +1.5 (-155)/Yankees -1.5 (+135)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110)
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Weather: 84 degrees, 10% chance of rain
Mets vs. Yankees: Preview and Picks
The Subway Series is the (regular season) highlight of the MLB campaign each year. A set of games between the Mets and Yankees, two perennial contenders, that settles little more than bragging rights but is often seen as a potential World Series preview.
But not this year. Both clubs enter the series out of the playoff race. While the Yankees’ chances of getting back into the conversation look better than their National League counterparts, it’s certainly no sure thing.
This may be the highlight of the 2023 season for New York fans, so let’s get into it.
New York Mets Preview
The highest payroll in the history of Major League Baseball has yielded the Mets… well, what exactly?
The benefits aren’t there on offense. The team is 20th in OPS. While their power numbers are respectable on offense (11th in home runs), their lackluster .317 on-base percentage as a team leaves an offense that’s in the bottom third of the league in scoring.
Predictably, 1B Pete Alonso and SS Francisco Lindor are leading the offense in power categories. Rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez’s 19 home runs have shown why he’s considered the next big thing at his position.
But for all the offensive struggles, it doesn’t compare to the Mets’ high-priced pitching staff. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, paid as the best 1-2 combo in the sport, have been a little better than average. Rookie Kodai Senga has been the Mets’ true ace, which brings us to Tuesday’s starter, Jose Quintana.
Quintana came from St. Louis to fortify the back end of the rotation but was injured in spring training and made his 2023 debut last week against the White Sox. He gets to go against a Yankees’ offense who, without Aaron Judge, makes the Mets look like a juggernaut.
New York Yankees Preview
The Yankees’ offensive struggles are well-documented without Judge, the defending American League MVP.
Last weekend brought the woeful Royals to town, and the Bronx Bombers managed six runs per game in a three-game sweep. Anthony Rizzo busted his 45-game streak without a home run, and New York avoided a scare when 2B Gleyber Torres left Sunday with hip tightness.
As of right now, he’s expected to be in the lineup Wednesday.
Carlos Rodon has a story similar to the Mets’ Quintana. Acquired from a National League squad (San Francisco) this offseason but limited by injury. Wednesday will be Rodon’s fourth start, and the Yankees hope he looks better than he has thus far (0-3, 7.36 ERA).
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Prediction
It’s a tough scout, a game between two interleague rivals with a pair of pitchers who’ve given us little to go on this season.
However, the Mets’ front office has dropped a few clues than anything less than a sweep vs. the Yankees may move the team into “sell” mode at the trade deadline. That plus the atmosphere of the Subway Series should provide ample motivation to a club that could use a shot in the arm.
Additionally, Yankee Stadium tends to play small (16% more home runs hit at Yankee Stadium than the MLB average.) That should favor Quintana, a pitcher who gets almost twice as many outs on ground balls as Rodon.
The numbers lightly favor the Mets, which makes this price tag appealing.
Prediction: New York Mets (+130) over New York Yankees