Expert MLB handicapper Rob Senior previews Friday’s New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves matchup, and outlines his best bets.
The Mets and Braves tangle for three games this weekend. With six games left in the regular season, the Mets hold a one-game lead for the NL East division title and the all-important first-round bye.
The winner of the three-game series will take a big step towards the division title. Here’s a look at Friday’s opener:
| Date & Time | Friday, September 30, 7:20 P.M. Eastern |
| Moneyline | New York Mets (-120) at Atlanta Braves (+100) |
| Runline | Mets -1.5 (+175)/Braves +1.5 (-205) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-115)/Under 6.5 (-105) |
| Where | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Weather | 70 degrees, 5% chance of rain |
Season Series: So far in 2022, the Mets hold a 9-7 advantage over the braves in head-to-head matchups.
Starting Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA) vs. Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA)
New York Mets Preview
With so much on the line, New York is going to their hammer. But ace pitcher Jacob deGrom is coming off his worst start of the season in Oakland.
deGrom is 1-1 vs. the Braves this year with a 3.65 ERA.
The Mets’ lineup is slightly worse against left-handed pitchers this year (.247 average vs .263 against righties), so Fried could be their toughest matchup of the three games.
Atlanta Braves Preview
Max Fried hasn’t won in his last three starts but has a 2.65 ERA over those games. Can his luck turn against deGrom and the Mets?
In 2022, Fried is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Mets.
Atlanta’s offense is averaging 6.4 runs over their last five games but hasn’t faced a pitcher the caliber of deGrom in that time.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
Atlanta’s Fried has been a tough matchup for the Mets in 2022. Two-time Cy Young Award winner deGrom is a tough matchup for everyone he faces.
It’s hard to predict an offensive explosion for either team. Under 3.5 runs for the first five innings may be worth a look with two excellent pitchers.
In the end, the depth of Atlanta’s lineup, their well-rounded bullpen, and home-field advantage make it hard to pass on the Braves at even money.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (+100)
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Bonus Bet:
The pitching is strong for both teams, and in what figures to be a low-scoring game, the following parlay is tempting:
Bonus Bet: Braves under 3.5 runs/Braves to win (+425)
