NCAA Tournament Picks: 96.77% chance of picking the March Madness winners by following this betting trend

Most Read

EPL Predictions Week 15: Our 3 Best Bets

EPL Predictions Week 15 as the English Premier League returns to action, including our 3 best bets for the weekend's soccer matches.

TwinSpires Sign Up Bonus: Get a $1000 Risk Free Bet today!

Claim your TwinSpires sign up bonus worth $1000 today at TwinSpires Sportsbook when you enter TwinSpires offer code 'BET1000'.

Caesars Sportsbook Super Bowl Giveaway: Bet $10 for the chance to win Super Bowl 56 tickets

The Caesars Sportsbook Super Bowl giveaway gives new and existing customers the chance to win tickets to Super Bowl 56, a private jet ride and more!
Matt Tenby
Matt has been a writer for American Betting Experts since 2019. He loves to watch, bet on and write about soccer but is also a huge NBA and NFL fan.

March Madness 2021 is approaching and looking at the trends from previous NCAA Tournaments can help bettors to find the winner of College Basketball’s main event.

Get $1001 Free at Caesars

Join Caesars and get a Free Bet Match of up to $1001.

Terms and conditions apply

Well-known brand
AZ, CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA, WV
Stylish and clear app

Terms and conditions apply

Trends are always popular in the betting world and there are very few events which allow for trends more than March Madness.

The NCAA Tournament, which has been played since 1985, may feature fresh rosters of players every year and may also have no constants in terms of the standard of each school, but the seeding system used is one of the most perfect in all of sports.

Over the past 35 March Madness tournaments, the number one seed has won 21 times. That’s exactly 60% and indicates that the selection committee are very good at noting the best team in the bracket.

Even more impressively, the number two seeds have won 5 times and the number three seeds 5 times, taking the total NCAA Tournament wins for the top three seeds to 31/35 or 88.57%.

Of the other four winners since the very first March Madness tournament in 1985, none have been seeded outside of eighth.

The first four years of the NCAA Tournament were a different format as well, which makes them something of a statistical outlier. If they are removed then the statistics become even more compelling as with 1985 winners Vilanova (8) and 1988 winners Kansas (6) removed then there is only ONE winner outside the top 4 seedings in the last 32 years (7th seed Connecticut in 2014).

NCAA Tournament Winners Seedings

YearWinner Seeding
2019Virginia3
2018Vilanova1
2017North Carolina1
2016Vilanova 2
2015Duke 1
2014 Connecticut7
2013Louisville1
2012Kentucky1
2011Connecticut3
2010Duke1
2009North Carolina1
2008Kansas1
2007Florida1
2006Florida3
2005North Carolina1
2004Connecticut2
2003Syracuse3
2002Maryland1
2001Duke1
2000Michigan State1
1999Connecticut1
1998Kentucky2
1997Arizona4
1996Kentucky 1
1995UCLA1
1994Arkansas1
1993North Carolina1
1992Duke1
1991Duke 2
1990UNLV1
1989Michigan 3
1988Kansas 6
1987Indiana1
1986Louisville2

What does this mean for those looking to pick a NCAA Tournament winner for 2021?

Well, it means that you can virtually discount all but the top four seeds as that gives you an 88% chance of finding the winner since the NCAA Tournament began in 1985. If you refine further and remove the first four years when the tournament was in a different format then you are increasing your odds of picking the winner to 96.77%.

We now know the top four seeds for 2021 NCAA Tournament and March Madness betting odds suggest that it will be one of the following teams winning this year.

  • Gonzaga
  • Baylor
  • Illinois
  • Michigan

The trends suggest that this is a good omen for Gonzaga, the top seed. Michigan are the fourth seed but they do have experience of winning the NCAA Tournament, which is something that neither Gonzaga, Baylor nor Illinois have.

Latest Offers

Latest News

Get a $200 Free Bet with BetMGM NFL Promo ‘Bet $10, Win $200’

BetMGM Promo 'Bet $10, Win $200' gives you the chance to receive a $200 Free Bet if your team scores a TD.

Betting on Super Bowl Commercials in 2022

Betting on Super Bowl Commercials has become a popular betting market in recent years, with loads of entertaining outcomes to wager your Super Bowl bets on.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Trump leads next US election odds

2024 Presidential Election Odds have been released by a number of the legal online sportsbooks, with some interesting names in the mix.

DraftKings Play+ Prepaid Card: Making depositing and withdrawing easier

Everything you need to know about the DraftKings Play+ prepaid card and the benefits it brings to you as a sports bettor.

BetMGM NY Bonus Code: Get a $1000 Risk Free Bet at BetMGM New York

BetMGM NY Bonus Code 'AMERICANBET' will unlock a generous $1000 Risk Free Bet which serves as your BetMGM NY Welcome Bonus.

More Articles Like This