NCAA Tournament Picks: 96.77% chance of picking the March Madness winners by following this betting trend

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Matt Tenby
Matt has been a writer for American Betting Experts since 2019. He loves to watch, bet on and write about soccer but is also a huge NBA and NFL fan.

March Madness 2021 is approaching and looking at the trends from previous NCAA Tournaments can help bettors to find the winner of College Basketball’s main event.

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Trends are always popular in the betting world and there are very few events which allow for trends more than March Madness.

The NCAA Tournament, which has been played since 1985, may feature fresh rosters of players every year and may also have no constants in terms of the standard of each school, but the seeding system used is one of the most perfect in all of sports.

Over the past 35 March Madness tournaments, the number one seed has won 21 times. That’s exactly 60% and indicates that the selection committee are very good at noting the best team in the bracket.

Even more impressively, the number two seeds have won 5 times and the number three seeds 5 times, taking the total NCAA Tournament wins for the top three seeds to 31/35 or 88.57%.

Of the other four winners since the very first March Madness tournament in 1985, none have been seeded outside of eighth.

The first four years of the NCAA Tournament were a different format as well, which makes them something of a statistical outlier. If they are removed then the statistics become even more compelling as with 1985 winners Vilanova (8) and 1988 winners Kansas (6) removed then there is only ONE winner outside the top 4 seedings in the last 32 years (7th seed Connecticut in 2014).

NCAA Tournament Winners Seedings

YearWinner Seeding
2017North Carolina1
2016Vilanova 2
2015Duke 1
2014 Connecticut7
2009North Carolina1
2005North Carolina1
2000Michigan State1
1996Kentucky 1
1993North Carolina1
1991Duke 2
1989Michigan 3
1988Kansas 6

What does this mean for those looking to pick a NCAA Tournament winner for 2021?

Well, it means that you can virtually discount all but the top four seeds as that gives you an 88% chance of finding the winner since the NCAA Tournament began in 1985. If you refine further and remove the first four years when the tournament was in a different format then you are increasing your odds of picking the winner to 96.77%.

We now know the top four seeds for 2021 NCAA Tournament and March Madness betting odds suggest that it will be one of the following teams winning this year.

  • Gonzaga
  • Baylor
  • Illinois
  • Michigan

The trends suggest that this is a good omen for Gonzaga, the top seed. Michigan are the fourth seed but they do have experience of winning the NCAA Tournament, which is something that neither Gonzaga, Baylor nor Illinois have.

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