NCAA Tournament Picks: 96.77% chance of picking the March Madness winners by following this betting trend

March Madness 2021 is approaching and looking at the trends from previous NCAA Tournaments can help bettors to find the winner of College Basketball’s main event.

Caesars Sports

Caesars Sports RISK FREE

Use promo code ‘EXPERTVIPFULL’ and get a first bet on Caesars up to $1,250.
$1,250 Back If You Don’t Win Get Bonus
EXPERTVIPFULL
Terms and conditions apply

Trends are always popular in the betting world and there are very few events which allow for trends more than March Madness.

The NCAA Tournament, which has been played since 1985, may feature fresh rosters of players every year and may also have no constants in terms of the standard of each school, but the seeding system used is one of the most perfect in all of sports.

Over the past 35 March Madness tournaments, the number one seed has won 21 times. That’s exactly 60% and indicates that the selection committee are very good at noting the best team in the bracket.

Even more impressively, the number two seeds have won 5 times and the number three seeds 5 times, taking the total NCAA Tournament wins for the top three seeds to 31/35 or 88.57%.

Of the other four winners since the very first March Madness tournament in 1985, none have been seeded outside of eighth.

The first four years of the NCAA Tournament were a different format as well, which makes them something of a statistical outlier. If they are removed then the statistics become even more compelling as with 1985 winners Vilanova (8) and 1988 winners Kansas (6) removed then there is only ONE winner outside the top 4 seedings in the last 32 years (7th seed Connecticut in 2014).

NCAA Tournament Winners Seedings

YearWinner Seeding
2019Virginia3
2018Vilanova1
2017North Carolina1
2016Vilanova 2
2015Duke 1
2014 Connecticut7
2013Louisville1
2012Kentucky1
2011Connecticut3
2010Duke1
2009North Carolina1
2008Kansas1
2007Florida1
2006Florida3
2005North Carolina1
2004Connecticut2
2003Syracuse3
2002Maryland1
2001Duke1
2000Michigan State1
1999Connecticut1
1998Kentucky2
1997Arizona4
1996Kentucky 1
1995UCLA1
1994Arkansas1
1993North Carolina1
1992Duke1
1991Duke 2
1990UNLV1
1989Michigan 3
1988Kansas 6
1987Indiana1
1986Louisville2

What does this mean for those looking to pick a NCAA Tournament winner for 2021?

Well, it means that you can virtually discount all but the top four seeds as that gives you an 88% chance of finding the winner since the NCAA Tournament began in 1985. If you refine further and remove the first four years when the tournament was in a different format then you are increasing your odds of picking the winner to 96.77%.

We now know the top four seeds for 2021 NCAA Tournament and March Madness betting odds suggest that it will be one of the following teams winning this year.

  • Gonzaga
  • Baylor
  • Illinois
  • Michigan

The trends suggest that this is a good omen for Gonzaga, the top seed. Michigan are the fourth seed but they do have experience of winning the NCAA Tournament, which is something that neither Gonzaga, Baylor nor Illinois have.

Latest Offers

Latest News

Who Takes Penalties for Every Team at World Cup 2022 in Qatar?

Who are the penalty-takers and backup penalty-takers for every national soccer team at the Qatar World Cup 2022?

To Win to Nil Betting Explained

What is to win to nil betting and how can you make money from it? We are here to tell you all about this popular betting type.

Ranking the Best Michigan Online Casino No Deposit Bonus Offers Right Now

We rank the 5 best Michigan online casino no deposit bonus offers to be claimed today in Michigan. There is no deposit required.

FIFA World Cup 2022 Daily Soccer Picks: Our Best Bet Today

Our best FIFA World Cup daily soccer picks as the sport's biggest tournament gets underway in Qatar.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Trump leads next US election odds

2024 Presidential Election Odds have been released by a number of the legal online sportsbooks, with some interesting names in the mix.

More Articles Like This