Professor Props aka NBA betting expert Kevin Davis provides his NBA player props for the first night of the season
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After a shortened NBA offseason, the 2020-21 season finally starts on Tuesday. There are two nationally televised games on TNT, the first game at 7 PM ET features the new-look Brooklyn Nets against the Golden State Warriors.
The Nets are expected to be a much different team this season with the debut of Kevin Durant. The Warriors who finished with the worst record last season have not played since March. The question for the Warriors is how much better they will be now that Steph Curry is healthy again. From a player prop perspective, I think Steph Curry scores more points than Kevin Durant and that is why I am backing that prop at -143 odds on PointsBet.
While Kevin Durant will be a high usage player for the Nets, I still think Joe Harris will quietly rack up 12-14 points per night. That is why I am betting that he has over 11.5 points at -105 odds on William Hill.
For the 10 PM ET game, the LA Clippers and Lakers face off in a cross-town battle. Both teams are expected to lead the West again and the Lakers are only favored by 2.5 points. While both teams tend to favor load management, I think they will use their star players more than usual on Tuesday night. That is why I believe that Montrezl Harrel will see less playing time than usual as a bench player and as a result he will have under 14.5 points (-110) (DraftKings) and under 6.5 rebounds (-135) (BetMGM).
Additionally, Paul George will see more minutes than usual and that is why I am betting that he has over 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115) (BetMGM).
2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 0-0, 0 Units, 0% ROI
2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI
Tuesday December 22nd
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets
Pick 1: Steph Curry (GSW) More Points Than Kevin Durant (-143)
Pick 2: Joe Harris (BKN) Over 11.5 Points (-105)
Steph Curry missed virtually all the 2019-2020 season with a hand injury. Right before the season was postponed in March, Curry made his return in only one game where he was highly active. In only 27 minutes, Curry managed to score 23 points despite shooting only 6 for 16. What was even more noteworthy about that performance was that Curry attempted 12 three-pointers. This season Curry is going to have the ball all to himself. Klay Thompson is out for the year, and virtually no one else on the Warriors is close to as good as he is.
While I am tempted to bet on Curry having over 27.5 points, that bet might be a little bit risky since Curry has only averaged more than 27.5 points once during his career. One bet that I like a lot is betting that he will score more points than Kevin Durant on PointsBet at -143 odds. The juice may be high, but it is worst the squeeze as Durant must share a ball with the high-usage Kyrie Irving. That is why I think Curry scores more points than Durant.
For the Brooklyn Nets, my favorite player prop is for Joe Harris to score over 11.5 points at only -105 odds on William Hill. During the 2019-20 season, Harris was one of the most consistent Nets scorers and that is why his point totals were frequently set at 12.5 or 13.5 points. Presumably, the addition of Kevin Durant to Brooklyn’s lineup has caused Harris’ point total to decrease to 11.5 points. I think this is an overreaction to Durant’s presence as Harris is not a high usage player.
Harris’ role on the Nets is as a player who can hit an occasion three-pointer or layup. When Durant and Kyrie Irving are likely to be targeted by the Warriors, I think Harris will get many open looks. Additionally, last year, Harris had 12 or more points in 71% of his games. I think that will be the case again this season and that is why I am betting that he scores over 11.5 points.
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick 1: Montrezl Harrell Under 14.5 Points (-110)
Pick 2: Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 Rebounds (-135)
Pick 3: Paul George Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)
Typically, when the Clippers or Lakers play a team, they are heavily favored to win. As a result, both teams will not play their best players for many minutes as they want to keep them healthy for the more consequential games. Tuesday night’s game is different than a typical Clippers or Lakers game as the Lakers are only narrowly favored. I believe that both teams will rely more on their stars than usual and that is why I am betting that Paul George has over 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists at -115 odds.
During the 2019-20 regular season, Paul George averaged 29.6 minutes per game and only 31.1 points, rebounds, and assists. However, during the postseason when the games mattered more, George averaged 36.8 minutes per game. Even though the Lakers have one of the best defenses in the league, I believe that George will be highly active on opening night. That is why he will have at least 31 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
While star players like Paul George will be active on Tuesday night, bench players like Montrezl Harrell will be less active than usual. During the offseason, the Lakers acquired Harrell in free agency. I believe that Harrell will get less usage on the Lakers roster than he did last season when he was on the Clippers. Harrell will have to compete with Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, and Kyle Kuzma for minutes. Additionally, he will have to compete with another high-volume bench shooter in Dennis Schroder for shots. That is why I am betting that he has under 14.5 points (-110) and under 6.5 rebounds (-135).
Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Steph Curry More Points Than Kevin Durant pays $85
$50 Joe Harris Over 11.5 Points Pays $97.62
$50 Paul George Over 30.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds Pays $93.48
$50 Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 Rebounds Pays $87.04
$50 Montrezl Harrell Under 14.5 Points Pays $95.50
Professor Props aka NBA betting expert Kevin Davis provides his NBA player props for the NBA playoffs.
In game three of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets on Friday Night, there are several attractive player prop bets to make. I believe that the third game is going to be like the first two games of the series. In the first two games of the series, the Lakers beat the Nuggets and Anthony Davis was heavily involved. That is why I am betting that Anthony Davis will score at least 30 points and the Lakers win. With Davis getting more usage, I am also betting that Lebron James will score under 26.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 28-21, +5.88 Units, +12% ROI
Tuesday September 22nd
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Pick 1: Anthony Davis (LAL) to score 30+ and Lakers Win (+250)
Pick 2: Lebron James (LAL) Under 26.5 Points (-125)
In the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets. In the first game the Lakers won in a blowout, but in the second game the Lakers won off a buzzer beater from Anthony Davis. One of the reasons why I like NBA player props more than spreads, moneylines, or totals, is because those types of wagers are in efficient markets. The Lakers are -265 moneyline favorites for tonight’s game which implies that they have a 72.6% chance of winning. Additionally, my model gives Davis a 44.3% chance of scoring at least 30 points. With Anthony Davis playing a big role on the Lakers, and the Lakers being likely to win, betting on Davis to score 30+ and the Lakers to win at +250 is a great bet to make. I am also betting that Lebron James scores under 26.5 points because his point total continues to be set too high with the emergence of Anthony Davis.
Anthony Davis is averaging more points per game in the playoffs than during the regular season. This is not a surprise as the Lakers limited Davis’s injuries during the regular season because of their load management strategy. The Lakers like many teams realized that most regular season games are inconsequential to winning the NBA championship because most teams make the playoffs. The Lakers were conservative with Davis’ minutes because they did not want him to be hurt for the playoffs. During the regular season Davis averaged 26.1 points per game off 34.4 minutes per game. Those numbers have increased during the playoffs as Davis is averaging 28.7 points per game off 35.1 minutes per game.
What the minutes per game numbers do not show is that during blowout wins the Lakers play Davis for only 30-32 minutes, while during close games Davis plays for around 40 minutes. If tonight’s game is anything like the last game where the Lakers won a close game, then the Lakers will win, and Davis will have at least 30 points. That is why I am betting that Davis scores 30+ points and the Lakers win at +250 odds.
Lebron James is one of my favorite players to bet against. Personally, I have nothing against Lebron as he is one of my favorite players. But taking the under on his inflated player prop totals is a great way to make money. With Davis getting more usage than Lebron, this is a great opportunity to make money betting against Lebron. The reason why his prop totals are inflated is because the betting public loves to bet on overs for the most popular players in the league like Lebron. With Lebron either he struggles in a close game, or he gets benched early because the Lakers are winning easily in a blowout. My model gives Lebron a 67.7% chance of scoring fewer than 26.5 points. That is why I am betting on Lebron scoring under 26.5 points at -125 odds.
Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Davis to score 30+ points and Lakers win pays $175
$50 James Under 26.5 Points Pays $90
In the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics in two close games. In both games the Celtics were favored, and in game three the Celtics are favored again. With a point total set at only 206.5 points, it is not smart to bet any player to go over their point total. Unfortunately, according to my model every single point total prop bet is efficiently priced. There are no good point total props to take. However, there are a couple assist and rebound props that are smart plays today. For Saturday night’s game, I am betting that Goran Dragic will have over 4.5 assists at +115 odds, and that Jayson Tatum will have over 8.5 rebounds at -134 odds.
NBA Playoffs Record: 26-21, +3.98 Units, +8.5% ROI
Saturday September 19th
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Pick 1: Goran Dragic (MIA) Over 4.5 Assists (+115)
Pick 2: Jayson Tatum (BOS) Over 8.5 Rebounds (-134)
After the first two games between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, the strategy for both teams is clear. The Heat are looking to shoot three-pointers despite the Celtics having a great three-pointer defense. The Celtics are looking to rely on high usage from Jayson Tatum. Both teams are content to play at a slower pace than most NBA games are played and the result is close games where the best players get more minutes than usual. For player props that means that even with low scoring, the best props out there can be overs. Even though there are no point total overs I like for Saturday night, there are overs in other statistical categories. For Saturday night I am betting that Goran Dragic has over 4.5 assists at +115 odds, and that Jaysum Tatum has over 8.5 rebounds at -134 odds.
Goran Dragic has seen an increase in usage and minutes in the playoffs. During the regular season, Dragic averaged 16.2 points per game off an average of 28.2 minutes per game. During the playoffs, Dragic has increased his scoring average to 21.9 points per game off an average 35.1 minutes per game. For a while you could bet on Dragic scoring over 18.5 points, but since people have realized that Dragic is doing better in the playoffs his point totals have increased. What has not changed despite his increase in usage has been his assist totals. Dragic is going to continue being heavily involved in the Heat offense. That is why my model gives Dragic a 65.1% chance of having over 4.5 assists. At +115 odds, that is a good bet to make.
Jayson Tatum is another player who is getting significant minutes during the playoffs. During the regular season Tatum averaged 34.3 minutes per game, but during the playoffs Tatum is averaging 40.2 minutes per game. With a 17.2% increase in minutes from the regular season, Tatum is seeing an increase in all his statistical categories. While Tatum’s point total props continue to be efficient, his rebound total at 8.5 rebounds is set too low. Tatum is currently averaging ten rebounds per game during the playoffs and if he continues to get minutes, Tatum will keep getting rebounds. My model gives Tatum a 66.8% chance of having over 8.5 rebounds in Saturday night’s game. That is why I am betting on Tatum having over 8.5 rebounds at -134 odds.
Saturday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Dragic Over 4.5 Assists Pays $107.50
$50 Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds Pays $87.50
In game one of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets on Friday Night, there are several attractive player prop bets to make. I believe that the first game will be a low-scoring one as the point total is set at only 212 points. That is why I am betting that Nikola Jokic will score under 22.5 points, and that Lebron James will score under 27.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 24-21, +2.16 Units, +4.8% ROI
Friday September 18th
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Pick 1: Nikola Jokic (DEN) Under 22.5 Points (-112)
Pick 2: Lebron James (LAL) Under 27.5 Points (-108)
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Lakers steamrolled the Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets. Both those teams had superstars in James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Damien Lillard. In those games the Lakers defense was able to contain all three of those high-volume scorers. I believe that Anthony Davis and the Lakers will do well defensively against Jokic. That is why I am betting that Jokic will score under 22.5 points. Additionally, while the Lakers did well in earlier playoff rounds, Lebron James frequently went under his point total props. That is one of the reasons why I am betting that Lebron scores under 27.5 points.
Nikola Jokic is doing better in the playoffs than he did during the regular season. During the regular season Jokic averaged 19.9 points per game, and during the playoffs Jokic is averaging 25.4 points per game. On the surface it would make sense to bet on Jokic scoring over 22.5 points, but against the Lakers defense that is a fool’s errand. One of the reasons why Jokic is doing better in the playoffs than the regular season is because he has a 44% three-pointer percentage in the playoffs. During the regular season Jokic had a 31.4% three-pointer percentage. During the regular season, the Lakers had the eight best three-pointer defense in the league. I believe that Jokic will revert to his mean in three-pointer percentage and that will it make it difficult for him to score over 22.5 points.
Lebron James is one of my favorite players to bet against. Personally, I have nothing against Lebron as he is one of my favorite players. But taking the under on his inflated player prop totals is a great way to make money. The reason why his prop totals are inflated is because the betting public loves to bet on overs for the most popular players in the league like Jokic or Lebron. With Lebron either he struggles in a close game, or he gets benched early because the Lakers are winning easily in a blowout. My model gives Lebron a 68.9% chance of scoring fewer than 27.5 points. That is why I am betting on Lebron scoring under 27.5 points at -108 odds.
Friday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 James Under 27.5 Points Pays $96.30
$50 Jokic Under 22.5 Points Pays $94.64
Thursday, September 17th
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Pick 1: Goran Dragic (MIA) Over 18.5 Points (-110)
Pick 2: Duncan Robinson (MIA) Over 7.5 Points (-116)
For the second game of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, I believe that the Heat will continue to employ the same strategy against the Celtics. While the Celtics have one of the best three-pointer defenses in the league, the Heat are the best three-point shooting team in the league. Typically, this would mean that the three-point shooting team will take fewer three-pointer attempts, but the Heat have not deviated from their strategy. In fact, in game one the Heat shot 44.4% on three-pointers going 16-36 from beyond the arc. I believe that the Heat will replicate that performance and that is why I am betting that Goran Dragic will score over 18.5 points, and that Duncan Robinson will score over 7.5 points.
Goran Dragic has seen an increase in usage and minutes in the playoffs. During the regular season, Dragic averaged 16.2 points per game off an average of 28.2 minutes per game. During the playoffs, Dragic has increased his scoring average to 21.9 points per game off an average 35.1 minutes per game. I believe that Dragic will continue to get significant minutes against the Celtics and that is why my model gives Dragic a 68% chance of scoring 19 or more points. That is why I am betting on Dragic scoring over 18.5 points at -110 odds.
Duncan Robinson is another player who is being overlooked by the betting public. While Robinson has not done as well recently, he is a key part of the Heat rotation. In his previous two games Robinson has only played 14 and 17 minutes. I believe that Robinson will get more playing time as he averaged 29.7 minutes per game during the regular season, and he is averaging 25.4 minutes per game during the playoffs. As a player who is primarily a three-pointer specialist I think he gets at least two three-pointers against the Celtics. When you throw in a couple two point field goals or free throws, Robinson easily scores over 7.5 points. My model gives Robinson at 64% chance of scoring eight points or more. That is why I am also betting on Duncan Robinson scoring over 7.5 points at -116 odds.
Thursday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Dragic Over 18.5 Points Pays $95.45
$50 Robinson Over 7.5 Points Pays $93.10
Tuesday, September 15th
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Pick 1: Jaylen Brown (BOS) More Points than Jimmy Butler (MIA) (-115)
Pick 2: Bam Adebayo (MIA) Under 10.5 Rebounds (-121)
For the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, the point total is set at only 209.5 points. While this is not too different for the Celtics based on their previous series between the Toronto Raptors, it is a change in pace for the Heat. The Heat are coming off a series against the Milwaukee Bucks who played at the fastest tempo in the whole league. As a result, this inflated the statistics on all the Miami Heat players. For the Eastern Conference Finals, Heat players will be scoring fewer points and sadly most of the player prop totals have taken this into account. However, a few heat players are overvalued so I am betting that Bam Adebayo has under 10.5 rebounds, and that Jaylen Brown has more points than Jimmy Butler.
Even though Jimmy Butler is correctly viewed as one of the best players on the Heat, I think that most of his strength is as a defensive powerhouse and not as a shooter. As an offensive player, I believe that he is likely to get 16-19 points per game which is lower than his 20.5 point total. The reason why I am not betting against his point total is that I think there is more value in betting that Jaylen Brown scores more points than Butler. While Jaysom Tatum and Kemba Walker get more attention for the Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown quietly takes just as many field goal attempts. During the playoffs he has seen an increase in usage, and I think he averages between 21-23 points during the Eastern Conference Finals. That is why I am betting on Brown to score more points than Butler at -115 odds.
In addition to fading Jimmy Butler, I think Bam Adebayo sees a decrease in his rebound stats against the Celtics. While Adebayo had a breakout season, I think his rebound total is set too high at 10.5 rebounds. Even though that would have been an appropriate total against the Milwaukee Bucks, I think the tempo will be too slow for Adebayo to get 11 or more rebounds. That is why I am betting that Bam Adebayo will have under 10.5 rebounds at -121 juice.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Nikola Jokic (DEN) Under 24.5 Points (-104)
After six games have been played between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers, we have learned a lot about how both teams interact with each other. I think game seven is going to be much different than the first six games of this series. With a point total set at only 207.5 points, I think the best player props to target will be unders. That is why I am betting that Nikola Jokic has under 24.5 points at -104 odds.
Nikola Jokic has done well over his last five games against the Los Angeles Clippers. Over Jokic’s last five games he is averaging 28 points per game off a 54.4% field goal percentage. As a result, it should be no surprise that his point total is set at 24.5 points. While on paper it may seem obvious to bet on Jokic to score over 24.5 points, my model gives Jokic a 63.8% chance of scoring less than 24.5 points. This is not only due to the low scoring nature of Tuesday’s game, but also because it is unsustainable for Jokic to continue shooting 54.4% from the field based on his recent shot selection. It is also because Jokic averaged only 19.9 points per game during the regular season. Against a Clippers defense which has played well in the past, I think Jokic scores fewer than 24.5 points.
Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Brown More Points Than Butler Pays $93.50
$50 Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds $91.50
$50 Jokic Under 24.5 Points Pays $98.08
Tonight, we have and exciting game between the Los Angeles Lakers the Houston Rockets. If the Lakers win tonight, they advance to the Western Conference Finals. Despite the Houston Rockets playing an uptempo style of basketball during the regular season, during the playoffs they have switched to a slower tempo of basketball. For player prop bettors this means that overs are not as good as they typically are in games involving the Rockets. With the best players typically having prop totals set at a high amount, I have been targeting unders on Lebron James and Anthony Davis props. While Davis’s totals have been properly adjusted, Lebron’s totals are set too high. That is why I am betting on James having under 29.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and not having a double-double.
NBA Playoffs Record: 20-17, +2.60 Units, 7% ROI
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Pick 1: Lebron James (LAL) Under 29.5 Points (-115)
Pick 2: Lebron James (LAL) No Double-Double (+280)
Pick 3: Lebron James (LAL) Under 10.5 Rebounds (-114)
Lebron James is one of the most recognizable people in the world. He has been one of the best players in the league for the last 17 years, and his fans love to bet on his prop total overs no matter what the numbers are. There are people out there who would take the over on a Lebron James point total set at 34.5 points, just because it is Lebron James. The sportsbooks are not in the sports betting business to be fair; they are in the sports betting business to take your money. One of their favorite ways of doing that is in artificially inflating the odds for the most popular bets. That is why I am betting against Lebron James tonight with three different player prop bets. I am betting that Lebron has under 29.5 points at -115 odds, under 10.5 rebounds at -114 odds, and no double-double at +280 odds.
Lebron James only averaged 25.3 points per game during the regular season which is more than four full points lower than his 29.5 point total for tonight’s game. Lebron is also only averaging 26.3 points per game during the playoffs which is more than three full points lower than his point total for tonight. While Lebron is an outstanding player, I do not think tonight’s game will result in Lebron doing better than he does on a typical night. My model gives Lebron a 68.9% chance of scoring fewer than 29.5 points. That is why I am betting on Lebron having under 29.5 points.
For Lebron’s double-double prop I see two potential outcomes. Lebron either narrowly gets a double-double because it is a close game where he gets many minutes, or he does not get a double-double because he gets benched early if the Lakers are blowing out the Rockets. With Lebron not getting a double-double being a distinct possibly, I am attracted to the lucrative +280 odds on that proposition. The last time I made this bet in this column a week ago, those that tailed were rewarded with a +260 payout.
One of the reasons why Lebron does not have a double-double tonight is because of his rebounding. It is hard for Lebron to get rebounds when Anthony Davis is getting much of the rebounds. My model gives Lebron a 52.9% chance of having fewer than ten rebounds. My model also gives Lebron a 64% chance of having fewer than eleven rebounds. That is why I am also betting on Lebron having under 10.5 rebounds at -114 odds.
Saturday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 James Under 29.5 Points Pays $93.50
$50 James Under 10.5 Rebounds Pays $94
$50 James No Double-Double Pays $190
Tonight, we have two exciting NBA playoff games to bet on. The first game of the night is between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers lead the Nuggets 3-1 in the playoff series and if they win tonight, they advance to the next round. Over the past few games, I have been able to bet against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George of the Clippers, but sadly the player props for Leonard and George are now efficiently set. However, Ivica Zubac is overlooked by the oddsmakers and that is why I am betting on him having over 7.5 rebounds and a double-double.
The second game of the night is going to the be the most exciting game of the whole playoffs. In game seven of the series between the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics, whoever wins advances to the next round of the playoffs. Since six games have been played between these two teams in the playoffs, the player prop totals are efficiently set on virtually every player. However, Jaylen Brown’s scoring props are set too low. That is why I am betting on Jaylen Brown scoring over 21.5 points and having over 2.5 three-pointers.
NBA Playoffs Record: 19-14, +4.65 Units, 14.1% ROI
Friday, September 11th
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Picks: Ivica Zubac (LAC) Over 7.5 Rebounds (-106)
Ivica Zubac (LAC) Yes Double-Double (+350)
In the four playoff games that have been played between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets, we have learned a lot about how these two teams interact with each other. The games are either close low-scoring games, or they are Clippers blowouts. Either way, the player prop totals for the most part have correctly adjusted to this reality. While Kawhi Leonard’s and Paul George’s point total props were inflated over the last few games, they sadly are efficiently set now. However, there are two player prop bets tonight one over and one under that are not efficiently set.
Ivica Zubac is the relatively unknown starting center on the Los Angeles Clippers. What has gone unnoticed is that he is getting more minutes in the playoffs, and as a result he is getting more rebounds. That is why my model gives Zubac a 62.2% chance of having over 7.5 rebounds in tonight’s game. That is why I am betting on Zubac having over 7.5 rebounds at -106 odds. Additionally, according to my model Zubac has a 40% chance of getting ten or more rebounds, and a 59.5% chance of getting ten or more points. That is why I am willing to take a chance on Zubac having a double-double at +350 odds.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Picks: Jaylen Brown (BOS) Over 21.5 Points (-110)
Jaylen Brown (BOS) Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-150)
After six games have been played between the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics, we have learned a lot about how both teams interact with each other. Every game so far has been close and low scoring. The last game went to two overtimes, and I think that is going to influence today’s game. With nine starting players on both teams playing for 47 minutes or more, I think both teams are going to be exhausted. When both teams are more exhausted that usually means more scoring. With an increase in scoring, and a pivotal game seven that is projected to be close neither team can afford to rest their best players. That is why I am targeting player prop total overs for tonight’s game. While I have found the player prop totals for virtually every player in tonight’s game to be efficiently set, I think they are set too low for Jaylen Brown. That is why I am betting on Brown having over 21.5 points and over 2.5 three-pointers.
While Jaysom Tatum and Kemba Walker get more attention for the Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown quietly takes just as many field goal attempts. In the last game Jaylen Brown had a usage rate of 32.46%. Most notably he made 30 field goal attempts with 13 of those attempts being three-pointers. While that was a game in which Brown played for more minutes than usual, in previous games he has taken between 15 and 18 field goal attempts with 7 to 11 of those attempts being three-pointer attempts. With Brown getting such high usage in what I expect to be a high-scoring game, I am betting on Brown having over 21.5 points, and over 2.5 three-pointers.
Friday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Zubac Over 7.5 Rebounds Pays $97.50
$50 Zubac Double-Double Pays $225
$50 Brown Over 21.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Brown Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Pays $83.50
Tonight, we have only one NBA playoff game to bet on. While it is easy for my glass to be half empty, it is still exciting to be able bet on player props for the Lakers/Rockets game. I expect game four of the second-round series between the Lakers and Rockets to be more of the same. While the Rockets are known for playing at a fast pace, they have slowed down the pace for the playoffs. For player props, that means that you should target the best unders. Almost all of the player point total props are efficiently set, but the point total props for Anthony Davis and Lebron James are still set too high. That is why I am betting on Lebron James to have under 29.5 points, and Anthony Davis to have under 28.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 18-13, +4.74 Units, 15.3% ROI
Thursday, September 10th
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Picks: Lebron James (LAL) Under 29.5 Points (-110)
Anthony Davis (LAL) Under 28.5 Points (+100)
Over the last two games in this playoff series, I have been betting against Lebron James and Anthony Davis and have been profitable. Lebron and Davis are two of the best players in the league, and their fans love to bet on their prop total overs no matter what the numbers are. The sportsbooks could set Lebron’s point total at 34.5 points, and people would still take the over. The sportsbooks are not in the sports betting business to be fair; they are in the sports betting business to take your money. One of their favorite ways of doing that is in artificially inflating the odds for the most popular bets. The first three games of the playoff series between the Rockets and the Lakers have been lower scoring and at a slower pace than expected. The Rockets during the regular season played at one of the fastest tempos in the league, however they have slowed down the pace in the playoffs. Despite playing at a slower pace, Lebron and Davis both have inflated point total props. That is why I am betting that James has under 29.5 points, and Davis has under 28.5 points.
Lebron James only averaged 25.3 points per game during the regular season which is more than four full points lower than his 29.5 point total for tonight’s game. Anthony Davis averaged 26.1 points during the regular season which is more than two full points lower than his 28.5 point total for tonight’s game. While tonight’s game is a playoff game against a team that has played at uptempo style of play in the past, I do not think that Davis or Lebron score more points than usual. Davis has averaged an unsustainable field goal percentage of 64.2% or better over his last three games against the Rockets. While tonight’s point total for Davis is three points lower than the last game, I still think it is a good bet to go against Anthony Davis. For Davis to go over his total it must be a close game where he gets many minutes, and he must make most of his shots. For Lebron to go over his total it must be a close game where he gets many minutes, and he must take more shots than usual. For those reasons I think both Lebron and Davis go under their point totals tonight.
Thursday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lebron Under 29.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Davis Under 28.5 Points Pays $100
Wednesday, September 9th
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Picks: Kyle Lowry (TOR) Under 20.5 Points (-106)
Marc Gasol (TOR) Under 8.5 Points (-106)
In the first five games of the playoff series between the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics, the Raptors have only averaged 97.2 points per game. This is much lower than their regular season average of 112.8 points per game. If the Raptors continue to score 13.8% fewer points than they typically score, then I think the best strategy is to target Raptor point total unders. That is why I am betting that Kyle Lowry scores under 20.5 points and Marc Gasol scores under 8.5 points.
Kyle Lowry has been a great player to bet against this year during the playoffs. During the regular season Lowry averaged 19.4 points per game, but during the playoffs he has averaged only 16.2 points per game. One of the main reasons why there has been a drop off in Lowry’s performance is because during the playoffs he has had a field goal percentage of only 39.8%. Against a Celtics defense that does well against guards, I think Lowry scores under 20.5 points in tonight’s game.
If Serge Ibaka plays tonight, Then I think Marc Gasol does not score more than 8.5 points. In nine playoff games this year, Gasol has scored fewer than nine points in seven games. Even if Ibaka does not play, I think Gasol scores under 8.5 points because Gasol has not been a focal point of the Raptors offense. If Ibaka plays, then I feel even more confident that Gasol scores under 8.5 points.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Picks: Kawhi Leonard (LAC) Under 30.5 Points (-118)
Paul George (LAC) Under 23.5 Points (-108)
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the two best players on the Los Angeles Clippers. While they can score many points, they are also injury prone. Due to both players being injury prone, The Clippers like to bench Leonard and George when games have already been decided. For Leonard to score over 30.5 points and/or George to score over 23.5 points, it must be a close high-scoring game. The Clippers are favored by eight points and in my opinion, I believe they will win by more. Additionally, if the game is close, I think it will be a low scoring game. That is why I am betting that Leonard will have under 30.5 points, and George will have under 23.5 points.
During the regular season, Leonard averaged 27.1 points which is 3.4 points lower than his point total for tonight’s game. While Leonard’s scoring has seen an increase during the playoffs, he is still averaging 29.1 points per game which is lower than his total. The betting public loves to back Kawhi Leonard, and as a result his point totals get inflated. So far during the 2nd round, the Nuggets appeared to have slowed down Leonard as he is only averaging 21.7 points per game against the Nuggets. Much must go right for Leonard to score 31 or more points, so I feel comfortable betting against Leonard tonight.
Paul George averaged only 21.5 points during the regular season, and during the playoffs he has averaged only 20.4 points per game. For George to score 24 or more points, much must go right for George. George must take more shots than usual and get more playing time than usual. I do not think either happens because if the Clippers take a large lead, I think he gets benched early. Additionally, George is the number two option on the Clippers team and that Is why I feel comfortable betting against George in addition to Kawhi Leonard.
Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lowry Under 20.5 Points Pays $97.50
$50 Gasol Under 8.5 Points Pays $97.50
$50 Leonard Under 30.5 Points Pays $92.37
$50 George Under 23.5 Points Pays $96.30
Tonight, we have two exciting NBA playoff games. The first game features the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat. The Heat currently lead the Bucks 3-1 in the seven game playoff series, and the Bucks best player Giannis Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play. With Antetokuonmpo likely to be benched, I believe that many players on the Bucks will see a significant increase in their usage. That is why I am betting that Brook Lopez will have over 15.5 Points, and Khris Middleton will have over 5.5 assists. In the Lakers vs Rockets game, I am taking a different angle. With the first two games of this series being played at a slower tempo than I was expecting, I am looking to bet against Lebron James and Anthony Davis as the Lakers two best players. That is why I am betting on Lebron James to have under 29.5 points, and Anthony Davis to have under 31.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 13-10, +3.42 Units, 14.9% ROI
Tuesday, September 8th
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Picks: Brook Lopez (MIL) Over 15.5 Points (-118)
Khris Middleton (MIL) Over 5.5 Assists (-132)
In the first four games of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat shocked the Bucks taking a 3-1 lead in the seven-game series. If the Heat win tonight, they advance to the next round of the playoffs and the Bucks season is over. In the last game the best player on the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo played only 11 minutes. Giannis is hurt and he is questionable for tonight’s game. Even if Giannis plays, in my opinion I think he gets fewer minutes than usual. I think that the best betting strategy is to bet on other Bucks players to do well. That is why I am betting on Brook Lopez scoring over 15.5 points, and Khris Middleton having over 5.5 assists.
In the Saturday’s game without Giannis on the floor for most of the game, Khris Middleton had a big game. Middleton played 48 minutes, scoring 36 points with 8 rebounds and 8 assists. As a result of his prolific scoring, his point total went up and is efficiently set. However, his assist total at only 5.5 assists is too low. While Middleton averaged only 4.3 assists during the regular season, I think Middleton will have more assists because he will be handling the ball more. Even though Middleton’s point total is efficiently set, the point total for Brook Lopez is set too low. With Giannis taking up many of the shots in the low post when he plays, I think Giannis’s absence will mean more two-point field goals for Lopez. That is why I am betting that Lopez has over 15.5 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Picks: Lebron James (LAL) Under 29.5 Points (-120)
Anthony Davis (LAL) Under 31.5 Points (-120)
Lebron James and Anthony Davis are two of the best players in the league, and their fans love to bet on their prop total overs no matter what the numbers are. The sportsbooks are not in the sports betting business to be fair; they are in the sports betting business to take your money. One of their favorite ways of doing that is in artificially inflating the odds for the most popular bets. The first two games of the playoff series between the Rockets and the Lakers have been lower scoring and at a slower pace than expected. The Rockets during the regular season played at one of the fastest tempos in the league, however they have slowed down the pace in the playoffs. Despite playing at a slower pace, Lebron and Davis both have inflated point total props. That is why I am betting that James has under 29.5 points, and Davis has under 31.5 points.
Lebron James only averaged 25.3 points per game during the regular season which is more than four full points lower than his 29.5 point total for tonight’s game. Anthony Davis averaged 26.1 points during the regular season which is more than five full points lower than his 31.5 point total for tonight’s game. While tonight’s game is a playoff game against a team that has played at uptempo style of play in the past, I do not think that Davis or Lebron score more points than usual. Davis has averaged an unsustainable field goal percentage of 61.1% or better over his last five games. For Davis to go over his total it must be a close game where he gets many minutes, and he has to make most of his shots. For Lebron to go over his total it must be a close game where he gets many minutes, and he has to take more shots than usual. For those reasons I think both Lebron and Davis go under their point totals tonight.
Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lopez Over 15.5 Points Pays $92.37
$50 Middleton Over 5.5 Assists Pays $87.88
$50 Lebron Under 29.5 Points Pays $92
$50 Davis Under 31.5 Points Pays $92
Tonight, we have two exciting NBA playoff games. Both games feature what many consider to be the two best players in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks and Lebron James for the Lakers. Most basketball fans have romantic notions of the playoffs. They think that the Playoffs is when the best players in the league have the best games of their career. While that can certainly be the case, it ends up inflating the odds in a way in which targeting certain under bets is a great strategy. That is why I am betting against two of the best players in the NBA tonight. In the first game I am betting that Giannis will have under 14.5 rebounds, and under 31.5 points. In the second game I am betting that Lebron does not have a double-double, and that he scores fewer than 29.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 10-9, +.05 Units, 0.3% ROI
Friday, September 4th
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Pick1: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) Under 14.5 Rebounds (+108)
Pick 2: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) Under 31.5 Points (-117)
In the first two games of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat shocked the Bucks by winning both games. As a result of the Heat being ahead of the Bucks 2-0 in a seven-game series, The Bucks will be desperate to win tonight. While that might mean that Giannis Antetokounmpo could have a big night, I think it is more likely that win or lose he has an average Giannis performance. That is not a bad thing for the Bucks as Giannis is the best player in the league, but it means that I think his player prop totals are inflated and there is great value in taking the under. That is why I am betting that Giannis has under 14.5 rebounds at +108 odds and under 31.5 points at -117 odds.
During the regular season, Giannis averaged 29.5 points and 13.6 rebounds per game. Both of those totals are under his prop totals for tonight’s game against the defensively minded Miami Heat. For Giannis to go over both or one of those totals, he must have a better game than usual tonight against a better team than he is used to playing. So far in the playoffs, despite Giannis averaging an unsustainable 57.7% field goal percentage, he is only averaging 28.6 points per game. I think it is risky to bet on Giannis scoring more points than he has been scoring recently, when his field goal percentage is likely to regress. Additionally, for his rebound total prop my model projects Giannis to have only 12.73 rebounds. While I think Giannis might have a good game tonight, I think he has fewer than 31.5 points and fewer than 14.5 rebounds.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Pick 1: Lebron James (LAL) Under 29.5 Points (-110)
Pick 2: Lebron James (LAL) No Double-Double (+260)
Lebron James is one of the most recognizable people in the world. He has been one of the best players in the league for the last 17 years, and his fans love to bet on his prop total overs no matter what the numbers are. The sportsbooks are not in the sports betting business to be fair; they are in the sports betting business to take your money. One of their favorite ways of doing that is in artificially inflating the odds for the most popular bets. In game one of the Los Angeles Lakers series against the Houston Rockets, the conventional wisdom is that the Lakers will easily beat the Rockets in a high scoring game. While that could easily happen, there is a distinct possibility that Lebron either underperforms, or the Lakers are beating the Rockets so bad that Lebron gets benched early. That is why I am betting on Lebron having fewer than 29.5 points, and that he does not get a double-double.
Lebron James only averaged 25.3 points per game during the regular season which is more than four full points lower than his 29.5 point total for tonight’s game. The reason why Lebron’s point total is set at 29.5 points is because he has scored at least 30 points in each of his last three games. However, in those three games Lebron had field goal percentages of 61.1%, 83.3%, and 73.7%, and had a three-point percentage of 60%. Lebron’s shooting percentage is unsustainable even if he were the type of player to only shoot the ball when he is next to the basket. For Lebron to score 30 or more points, he will have to take more field goal attempts than he is already taking which with Anthony Davis in the lineup is unlikely to happen.
For Lebron’s double-double prop I see two potential outcomes. Lebron either narrowly gets a double-double because it is a close game where he gets many minutes, or he does not get a double-double because he performs poorly or he gets benched early because the Lakers are blowing out the Rockets. With Lebron not getting a double-double being a distinct possibly, I am attracted to the lucrative +260 odds on that proposition.
Friday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Giannis Under 14.5 Rebounds Pays $104
$50 Giannis Under 31.5 Points Pays $93
$50 Lebron Under 29.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Lebron No Double-Double Pays $180
NBA Playoffs Record: 8-7, +0.43 Units, 2.9% ROI
Today we have two exciting second round NBA playoff games. The first game of the night is game three of the playoff series between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors. In the first two games, the Boston Celtics defense shut down the Toronto Raptors holding them to fewer than 100 points in each game. That is why I am betting on Kyle Lowry scoring under 19.5 points. Additionally, I think the betting markets are undervaluing Normal Powell’s role in the Raptors offense, so I am betting on him scoring over 9.5 points as well.
In the second game of the night, the Denver Nuggets face off against Los Angeles Clippers in first game of their playoff series. While both teams played more possessions than usual in the first round of the playoffs, I think the pace dramatically slows down. That is why I am betting on Nikola Jokic having under 24.5 points, and Kawhi Leonard having under 8.5 rebounds.
Thursday, September 3rd
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Pick 1: Kyle Lowry (TOR) Under 19.5 Points (-110)
Pick 2: Norman Powell (TOR) Over 9.5 Points (-110)
In the first two games of the playoff series between the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors, the Celtics held the Raptors to fewer than 100 points in each game. The Raptors may have been able steamroll the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs, but the Celtics are a much tougher opponent. Both the Celtics and the Raptors are defensive minded teams and that is why the point total for today’s game is set at 215.5 points, which in my opinion is slightly higher than it should be. Rather than betting on under 215.5 points to be scored, I think the best strategy is to bet against Kyle Lowry to score under 19.5 points at -110 odds. However, despite tonight’s game being a low scoring game, I am also betting on Norman Powell to have over 9.5 points at -110 odds.
Point guard Kyle Lowry has struggled in the playoffs and during the regular season the Boston Celtics had one of the best defenses against point guards. Opposing point guards averaged only 22.6 points per game, off a 44.3% field goal percentage against the Celtics during the regular season. Lowry is not going to play the entire game, so that it is why It smart to bet against him. Since the NBA returned in late July, Lowry has only scored 20 or more points in two out of the twelve games in which he has played. I have a hard envisioning a scenario where he scores 20 or more points and that is why I am betting on him scoring under 19.5 points.
While Lowry will have a tough time against the Celtics, I think Norman Powell will score over 9.5 points. Despite Powell scoring over 9.5 points being priced at -110 odds, my model believes that Powell should be priced at -167 odds because of his regular and postseason performance. That is why I am betting on Powell having over 9.5 points despite the strong play of the Celtics defense.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Pick 1: Nikola Jokic (DEN) Under 24.5 Points (-115)
Pick 2: Kawhi Leonard (LAC) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-134)
Game one of the second-round playoff series between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets is going to set the tone for the rest of the series. While both teams were involved in up-tempo games in their first-round games against the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz, I think this series will be played at a much slower tempo. While the point total of 223 points is lower than the amount of points scored per game in the first round, I think there will be even less scoring in this series. That is why I despite betting on Nikola Jokic scoring over 24.5 points in his last game, I am betting on Jokic scoring under 24.5 points at -115 odds. Additionally, I think Kawhi Leonard’s rebound total at 8.5 rebounds is set too high, so I am betting on Leonard having under 8.5 rebounds at -134 odds.
During the regular season Jokic averaged only 19.9 points per game which is about five points lower than his point total for tonight’s game. Against a Clippers defense that held opposing centers to the fourth lowest field goal percentage in the league during the regular season, I think Jokic has a tough time scoring. Jokic averaged 26.3 points per game against the Jazz in the first round, so for Jokic to go over his point total he has to replicate that performance against a better defense. That is why I am betting on Jokic scoring under 24.5 points at -115 odds.
For Kawhi Leonard, I think his rebound total at 8.5 rebounds is set too high. During the regular season Leonard averaged only 7.1 rebounds per game which is more than a full rebound under his rebound total. While Leonard is getting more playing time in the playoffs, his rebound numbers were inflated against a bad defensive team in the Dallas Mavericks. That is why I am betting on Leonard having under 8.5 rebounds at -134 odds.
Thursday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lowry Under 19.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Powell Over 9.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Jokic Under 24.5 Points Pays $93.50
$50 Leonard Under 8.5 Rebounds Pays $87.31
Wednesday, September 2nd
NBA Playoffs Record: 6-6, -0.33 Units, -2.8% ROI
On Wednesday we have two exciting NBA playoff games. The first game of the night is game two of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. In a surprising game one, the Heat upset the Bucks. The Heat players have adjusted to the up-tempo play of the Bucks, and this has not been reflected in the Heat player prop totals. That is why I am betting on Goran Dragic having over 19.5 points, and Bam Adebayo having over 10.5 rebounds.
In the second game of the night, the Oklahoma City Thunder face off against Houston Rockets in game seven of the first-round playoff series. Whoever wins that game advances to the next round of the playoffs. I believe that both teams are going to slow down the tempo as each possession is more critical. That is why I am betting that James Harden will have fewer than 4.5 three-pointers.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Picks: Goran Dragic (MIA) Over 19.5 Points (-102)
Bam Adebayo (MIA) Over 11.5 Rebounds (-115)
In the first game of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, both teams played at a fast tempo. As a result of what will likely continue to be a series of up-tempo games, many Heat players will have inflated stats for this round of the playoffs. Jimmy Walker, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo were by far the most active players on the Heat. On Monday, I bet on Goran Dragic to score over 19.5 points at -105 odds and he easily scored 27 points. To my surprise after that performance his point total has not changed. For that reason, I will be betting on him to score over 19.5 points again.
While it is tempting to bet on Jimmy Walker props, I think the oddsmakers have correctly set his odds for Wednesday’s game. For Bam Adebayo, it is surprising that his rebound total is set at only 11.5 rebounds after he had 17 rebounds in Monday’s game. That is why I am betting that Adebayo will have over 11.5 rebounds at -115 odds.
During the regular season, Dragic averaged only 16.2 points off an average of 12.3 field goal attempts per game. During the playoffs, Dragic is currently averaging 23.6 points per game off 18 field goal attempts per game. With Dragic taking significantly more shots in the playoffs, that is the best sign that he is going to go over his point total again. In Bam Adebayo’s case, it was impossible to watch a play in Monday’s game where Bam Adebayo was not involved. As a center, the way that Adebayo is most involved in the game is in rebounding. Currently during the playoffs Adebayo is averaging 12.4 rebounds per game. I think he continues to excel in rebounding and that is why I am betting that Bam Adebayo has over 11.5 rebounds at -115 odds.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Pick: James Harden (HOU) Under 4.5 Three-Pointers (-128)
During the playoff series between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets have shockingly played at a slower tempo. With a pivotal game seven of the series between the Rockets and the Thunder, I think both teams will take more time during each possession. That is why I am targeting player props that are set too high. For game seven of the Rockets-Thunder series I am betting that James Harden will have fewer than 4.5 three-pointers at -128 odds.
James Harden is the best scorer in the NBA. For that reason, any bettor wanting to take the over on any of his props will always have to pay a premium. With the return of Russell Westbrook negatively affecting Harden’s usage, I think there is value is betting against Harden. Since the NBA returned in Late July, Harden has only had five or more three-pointers in a game in 4 out of 13 games. This includes the six playoff games against the Thunder where Harden had fewer than five three-pointers four times. For that reason, I am betting that James Harden has fewer than 4.5 three-pointers at -128 odds.
Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Dragic Over 19.5 Points Pays $99.02
$50 Adebayo Over 11.5 Rebounds Pays $93.48
$50 Harden Under 4.5 Three-Pointers Pays $89.06
Tuesday, September 1st
NBA Playoffs Record: 3-5, -2.23 Units, -27.9% ROI
Today we have two exciting NBA playoff games. The first game of the night is game two of the playoff series between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors. In game one the Boston Celtics defense shut down the Toronto Raptors and I think the same thing happens again. That is why I am betting on Kyle Lowry to have under 19.5 points, and Fred VanVleet to have under 18.5 points. In the second game of the night, the Denver Nuggets face off against Utah Jazz in game seven of the first-round playoff series. Whoever wins that game advances to the next round of the playoffs. I believe that the Denver Nuggets are going to change tactics and rely more on Nikola Jokic and less on Jamal Murray. That is why I am betting on Nikola Jokic having over 24.5 points, and Jamal Murray having under 29.5 points.
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Picks: Kyle Lowry Under 19.5 Points (-115)
Fred VanVleet Under 18.5 Points (-104)
In the first game of the playoff series between the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors, the Celtics held the Raptors to only 94 points. The Raptors may have been able steamroll the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs, but the Celtics are a much tougher opponent. Both the Celtics and the Raptors are defensive minded teams and that is why the point total for today’s game is set at 217 points, which in my opinion is slightly higher than it should be. Rather than betting on under 217 points to be scored, I think the best strategy is to make two separate bets against Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. That is why I am betting on Kyle Lowry to score fewer than 19.5 points at -115 odds, and Fred VanVleet to fewer than 18.5 points at -104 odds.
Both Lowry and VanVleet play point guard and during the regular season the Boston Celtics had one of the best defenses against point guards. Opposing point guards averaged only 22.6 points per game, off a 44.3% field goal percentage against the Celtics during the regular season. Both Lowry and VanVleet are not going to play for the entire game, and that is why It is smart to bet against both. Lowry scored 17 points against the Celtics in game one, but he has struggled since the NBA returned in August. VanVleet scored only 11 points against the Raptors in game one. I think both Lowry and VanVleet struggle against the Raptors and that is why I am betting on Lowry scoring under 19.5 points, and VanVleet scoring under 18.5 points.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Picks: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points (-121)
Jamal Murray Under 29.5 Points (+120)
Game seven of the first-round playoff series between the Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets is going to decide which team advances to the next round. With tonight’s game being pivotal, both teams are likely to leave their best players on the court for more time. The conventional wisdom among the public is likely that Jamal Murray of the Nuggets is going to have a big game. Over the last three games, Murray is averaging 47.3 points per game. However, in tonight’s game I think that Nikola Jokic scores about the same amount of points as Murray. That is why I am betting on Nikola Jokic scoring over 24.5 points and Murray scoring under 29.5 points.
During the regular season, Jamal Murray averaged only 18.5 points which is significantly lower than his point total of 29.5 points. While I think that Murray will be used in tonight’s game more than during the regular season, I think it is a stretch to think that is likely to continue scoring as well as he is. During the regular season Jokic averaged only 19.9 points per game which was the most on the Nuggets. The reason why I think Jokic scores more than 25 points tonight is because he only averaged 32 minutes per game during the regular season, and during the playoffs he is averaging 37.3 minutes and 25.7 points per game. I think Jokic will be even more active tonight because of the increased stakes. That is why I am not only betting on Murray scoring under 29.5 points at +120 odds, but on Jokic scoring over 24.5 points at -121 odds.
Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lowry Under 19.5 Points Pays $93.50
$50 VanVleet Under 18.5 Points Pays $98.50
$50 Jokic Over 24.5 Points Pays $91.50
$50 Murray Under 29.5 Points Pays $110
This Monday, we have two exciting NBA playoff games. The first game of the night is game one of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks. I think the Miami Heat will be playing at a faster pace than usual. That is why I am betting on Goran Dragic of the Heat to have over 19.5 points at -105 odds. In the second game of the night, The Houston Rockets are going to try and beat the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the next round of the playoffs. Recently Thunder Point Guard Chris Paul has been less active than I would have expected during the playoffs and that is why I am betting on him having fewer than 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists at -121 odds.
NBA Playoffs Record: 2-4, -2.18 Units, -36.3% ROI
Monday, August 31st
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Picks: Goran Dragic Over 19.5 Points (-105)
In the first game of the playoff series between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, the point total is set at 223 points. During the regular season, the Bucks played at the fastest pace in the league, while the Heat played at the fourth slowest pace in the league. While the Heat like to control the pace of the game, I think the Bucks as the more dominant team will be in control of the pace. With a high scoring game being likely, the best player prop plays to look for are for overs on Heat players. In Goran Dragic’s case, with or without an increase in pace betting on him scoring over 19.5 points is a smart bet because of his increased usage in the playoffs. That is why I am betting on Dragic scoring over 19.5 points at only -105 odds.
During the regular season, Dragic averaged only 16.2 points off an average of 12.3 field goal attempts per game. During the playoffs, Dragic is currently averaging 22.8 points per game off 18.8 field goal attempts per game. With Dragic taking significantly more shots in the playoffs, that is the best sign that he is going to score more points. While his point total is higher than his regular season average, according to my model it should be set at 23.5 points. This is because of Dragic’s increased field goal attempts, and the up-tempo pace of the Bucks. That is why I am betting on Goran Dragic scoring over 19.5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Pick: Chris Paul Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA) (-121)
In game six of the playoff series between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets have a 3-2 series lead. If the Thunder lose tonight, they are eliminated from the playoffs. With the Rockets playing at the second fastest pace in the league, the conventional wisdom would be to bet on an over on a player prop for one of the Thunder players. The Thunder will be playing at a faster pace than usual and they are desperate to win. Chris Paul is the best player on the Thunder, but he has not been as involved in the playoffs. That is why despite the importance of tonight’s game, and the projected tempo, I am betting that Chris Paul has under 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) at -121 odds.
During the regular season, Chris Paul averaged 17.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. While those are impressive numbers, that equates to 29.3 PRA per game. With numbers like that, and the Rockets playing at a fast tempo it is reasonable to expect Paul to have at least 34 points, rebounds, and assists. However, during the playoff series against the Rockets, Paul is averaging 20.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. This is lower than Paul’s total for today’s game, and according to my model Paul has a 65.5% chance of having fewer than 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists in tonight’s game.
Monday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Dragic Over 19.5 Points Pays $97.62
$50 Paul Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists Pays $91.32
This weekend after much delay, we have six exciting NBA playoff games. For Saturday, I think that there are many great betting opportunities in the matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers face off against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Lakers have a 3-1 lead over the Blazers, and the Blazers will be without their best player Damian Lillard. I think that the Lakers will win in a blowout and as a result Lebron James and Anthony Davis will get fewer minutes. That is why I am betting that Lebron James has fewer than 46.5 points, rebounds, and assists, and that Anthony Davis has fewer than 27.5 points. For Sunday, I think that there is a great betting opportunity in the game between the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors. Jaylen Brown was highly active in the first round of the playoffs against the Philadelphia 76ers, and I think he will be heavily involved against the Raptors. That is why I am betting on Jaylen Brown to score over 21.5 points.
NBA Playoffs Record: 2-1, +0.82 Units, 27.3% ROI
Saturday, August 29th
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Picks: Lebron James Under 46.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110)
Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points (+104)
The Los Angeles Lakers are favored by 13 points against the Portland Trail Blazers. Currently they lead the Blazers 3-1 and they need to win only one more game to advance to the next round of the playoffs. The Blazers are without their best player Damien Lillard tonight. In the last game of this series with Damien Lillard, the Lakers beat the Blazers 135-115. With the Lakers comfortably ahead the whole game, they took out their two best players LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I think the same thing happens again and that is why I am betting on Lebron having under 46.5 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) at -110 odds, and Anthony Davis having under 27.5 points at +104 odds.
The Lakers like many contending teams have figured it out. The regular season does not matter, and they should rest their best players whenever possible. During the regular season, the Lakers would frequently rest Davis or Lebron on random game days or pull them out of games early when they have a large lead. If tonights game is close, I think the player prop totals for Davis and Lebron are close to their projected totals for a close game. However, I think tonight’s game is going to be a blowout and that I why I am betting against Davis and Lebron.
Sunday, August 30th
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 21.5 Points (+102)
After much wait, Game one of the Eastern Conference Semifinals begins on Sunday. The Toronto Raptors who are favored to win by only two points host the Boston Celtics. In a close game between two dominant teams, both teams are going to play their best players for many minutes. For the Celtics, this means that they are going to rely heavily on Jaylen Brown. The Celtics swept the Philadelphia 76ers in four games, and three of those games were close. In the three games that we close, Brown played between 39 and 42 minutes. In the regular season Brown averaged 33.9 minutes per game and 20.3 points per game. That is why I think Jaylen Brown scores over 21.5 points against the Raptors, because I think it is likely that he goes over the total due to his increased workload.
The Raptors are a great defensive team, but so were the 76ers this season. While the Raptors gave up the fewest points per game against opposing Shooting Guards in the NBA, the 76ers gave up the fourth fewest points per game against opposing Shooting Guards. Against the 76ers, Brown averaged 15 field goal attempts per game. With Brown playing many minutes and taking many field goal attempts I think he gets at least 22 points. That is why I am betting on Brown scoring over 21.5 points at +102 odds.
Weekend NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Lebron James Under 46.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists Pays $95.50
$50 Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points Pays $102
$50 Jaylen Brown Over 21.5 Points Pays $101
Professor Props aka NBA betting expert Kevin Davis provides his NBA player props for the Tuesday August 25th.
Today we have two exciting NBA playoff games. In the first game Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets face elimination against the Utah Jazz. In the second game, The Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks are both fighting for a 3-2 series lead. For the first game I am betting that Nikola Jokic has more than 24.5 points, but under 7.5 assists. For the second game I am betting that any player will have 40 or more points at +190 odds.
NBA Playoffs Record: 0-0
Tuesday, August 25th
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Picks: Nikola Jokic (DEN) Over 24.5 Points (-110)
Nikola Jokic (DEN) Under 7.5 Assists (-110)
The Denver Nuggets are in danger of getting eliminated by the Utah Jazz in tonight’s game. Despite being a higher seeded team, the Nuggets trail the Jazz 3-1 in this best of seven series. In terms of player props, I think this will cause several players to change their tendencies. The best player on the Nuggets roster is versatile Center Nikola Jokic. He can shoot 3-pointers, rebound, and pass. As the best player on the Nuggets, I think Jokic takes more field goal attempts, and passes the ball less. That is why I am making two separate bets on Jokic. I am betting that Jokic has over 24.5 points, and under 7.5 assists.
Currently in the playoffs, Jokic is averaging 25.3 points per game off 19.8 field goal attempts per game. This is higher than his regular season average of 19.9 points per game and 14.7 field goal attempts per game. He is also averaging only 5.3 assists per game which is lower than his regular season average of 7.0 assists per game. With much on the line in their playoff series against the Nuggets, Jokic is taking more shots and passing the ball less. My model projects Jokic to have 28.7 points, and 5.65 assists against the Jazz. That is why I am betting that Jokic has more than 24.5 points, but fewer than 7.5 assists.
SPECIAL OFFER FOR DENVER RESIDENTS: CLICK BELOW
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Any Player To Score 40+ Points (+190)
So far, the playoff series between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers has been wild. Each game has been close and high scoring. In their last game on Sunday, the Mavericks won 135-133 in overtime. With another high scoring and competitive game likely, I really like an odds boost that is being offered by BetMGM. They are offering a bet on any player to score 40 or more points at +190 odds. I think that is likely to happen and that is why I am taking that bet even if it ends up having low limits do to it being a promotional bet.
Luka Doncic is the player most likely to have 40 or more points tonight. Since the league returned to play in the bubble in Orlando, Doncic has been a more active scorer. In his last game he scored 43 points off 31 field goal attempts. My model projects Doncic to have 39.1 points in tonight’s game and gives him a 46.4% chance of scoring 40 or more points. Additionally, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have a feasible chance of scoring 40 or more points as well. That is why I am betting on any player having 40 or more points in tonight’s game.
Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:
$50 Mavericks/Clippers Any Player To Score 40+ Points Pays $145
50 Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Nikola Jokic Under 7.5 Assists Pays $95.50
