NBA 2019-2020 Future Championship Odds have been released, and Nick Ballistreri previews these odds and identifies some value plays, and teams to stay away from.
With the NBA season coming to a close, savvy bettors are already searching the markets for the best odds for their NBA future bets. Many sportsbooks have released their odds, and below I will be posting the odds from Pointsbet and analyzing some interesting movement.
Pointsbet 2019-2020 NBA Finals Outright Winner
- Los Angeles Lakers +350
- Milwaukee Bucks +500
- Toronto Raptors +600
- Houston Rockets +800
- Golden State Warriors +900
- Los Angeles Clippers +900
- Philadelphia 76ers +900
- Denver Nuggets +2000
- Brooklyn Nets +2500
- Boston Celtics +2500
- New York Knicks +5000
Let’s talk about this. The Toronto Raptors were on top of the basketball world for less than 48 hours before the Lakers swung a trade with the Pelicans to secure Anthony Davis. With the duo of LeBron and AD, the Lakers have jumped to almost 3-1 odds. The oddsmakers must think the Lakers have a good shot to land another big time free agent, namely Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, or Kyrie Irving. I personally would stay away from the Lakers at these odds. It’s rare for a new super-team to fully click in Year 1.
The two ECF participants, the Bucks and Raptors, come in next at +500 and +600 respectively. Giannis will keep improving, and the Bucks have a very solid team. The Raptors seem to have a good chance to keep Kawhi, and at least have a puncher’s chance at a repeat next season.
I wouldn’t touch the Warriors at +900. Those odds are too high for my liking, especially with the uncertainty of KD’s free agency, as well as his and Klay Thompson’s injuries. It’s looking very likely that KD leaves town, and Klay may miss most of next season. The Warriors will still be a playoff team with Curry, but I don’t see them competing for a title.
I think there is some value in the other two teams with +900 odds, the Sixers and Clippers. Danny Green said the Sixers were the best team they faced in the playoffs. Remember, it took a legendary buzzer beater by Kawhi for the Raptors to beat the Sixers in 7. If the Sixers win that series, they might make it all the way to the championship. They have some free agents to take care of, namely Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler, but if they can resecure their services, they have a chance to break through next season.
The Clippers were a young but improving team this past season. The reason their odds are this high are for one reason only: the potential addition of Kawhi Leonard. If Kawhi goes to the Clips, they are an immediate championship contender with the team they have already built. If you’re looking to get value before free agency, the Clippers may be for you.
And now, the longshots. The two New York teams have been the talk of the basketball world about how they were going to make big splashes in free agency with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Right now, the Brooklyn Nets seem to be the leaders in the clubhouse for Kyrie Irving, and they come in at +2500 next season. I believe there is a lot of value for the Nets at that number. They were an improving team last season, and are the leaders for Kyrie. Let’s talk a hypothetical quick. Let’s say Kyrie convinces KD to join him in Brooklyn. KD rehabs his injury and comes back in say, late March. Would you pick any team to beat them with Kyrie-KD and the young guys the Nets already have? At +2500, they’re great value for a dart throw.
The Knicks have seen their odds drop significantly recently. They have been seen as high as 10-1 in some spots before, but now are a measly +5000, a complete long shot. The Knicks were talking about a trio of Zion, KD, and Kyrie. Now it looks like they might go 0-3. There is a chance the Knicks make no moves this offseason, and continue to groom their young guys in preparation for next year’s draft and free agency. Not the worst organizational strategy, but when it comes to picking a future winner next year? The Knicks are not your choice.
With the Warriors looking done, and the potential for many big free agents to move teams, the league is as wide open as it’s been in a while. There are opportunities to find value, as indicated above. Once free agency is completed, these odds will change, so if you think a particular free agent is going to a certain team, you will want to get your future in before he signs. It should be an exciting, but interesting offseason!