Jake Ernst previews the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and picks out the best bets from this weekend’s NASCAR race.
The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is this Sunday at 3pm ET at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and while New Hampshire isn’t the smallest track on the circuit, it does make for the shortest race of the year in terms of miles.
Surprisingly enough, there is a six-way tie on the active wins list at New Hampshire between Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, with each driver taking the checkered flag three times a piece.
Denny Hamlin (10.20) and Jimmie Johnson (10.58) have the two-best average finished of active drivers but have both seemed to struggle a bit this season. Unfortunately for Hamlin, he has just four top-10’s in his last 10 races at the track and three top-10’s in his last 10 races overall. For Johnson, he has placed in the top-10 just eight times this season and is having arguably his worst season in the series as a full-time driver. These drivers both have good track records at New Hampshire but their lack of recent success make them both riskier picks for this weekend.
Now we know who to try to stay away from, lets take a look at three drivers I like to win on Sunday.
The bet: No. 18 Kyle Busch to win at +275 on SugarHouse Sportsbook
As usual, Busch is Vegas’ favorite to win on Sunday and for good reason. In his 27 starts at New Hampshire, the 34-year-old has 15 top-10’s and 11 top-fives, very impressive numbers to say the least. In addition to his strong finishes, he has led a series-high 1,010 laps and has three wins on his resume at the 1.058 mile track
His odds of +275 won’t be jump out to gamblers as much as some of the other drivers odds in the field but like I say every week, you will likely regret not putting at least a small wager on NASCAR’s most dominant driver.
The bet: No. 1 Kurt Busch to win at +1800 on William Hill
Busch took home his first win of the season and first win since August 18th, 2018 last Saturday when he finally edged out his younger brother Kyle Busch in the closing laps at Kentucky.
While the win locks him into the playoffs, don’t expect the veteran driver to ease up his pursuit of a second Monster Energy Championship. The 40-year-old is one of NASCAR’s oldest drivers but as he has been displaying in recent races, Busch has plenty left in the tank and will be riding some momentum into this weekend.
Busch failed to win last year’s race at New Hampshire but he did lead the most laps (94) and has finished in the top-10 three out of his last four races at the speedway. With odds of +1800, there simply isn’t a better value bet in the field. It could be another battle of the brothers this weekend, but if you bet on both Busch brothers, you shouldn’t have much to worry about.
The bet: No. 42 Kyle Larson to finish in the top-3 at +600 on William Hill
Larson has led just 16 laps and has never won at New Hampshire but he has been flirting with wins in each of his last two races at the speedway. The 26-year-old has just nine races under his belt at New Hampshire but in those nine races, Larson has finished in the top-five four times and has three second-place finishes.
He may not get his long-desired win at the speedway but he usually finds himself in-or-around the top-three and at +600, I think this bet has a lot of value. If you think Larson could finally get his first win of the season and first win at New Hampshire, SugarHouse is offering him at +2500 to win the race.
If everything goes accordingly (and in my dreams) the Busch brothers will once-again battle for the win and Larson will finish right behind them in third.