NASCAR Betting Picks: Quaker 400 Series Best Bets

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Jake Ernst
Sportswriter and Social Media Manager for The American Betting Experts - Covering a variety of sports including the NBA, MLB, NFL and NASCAR - Former New York Yankees Contributor for Sports Illustrated's "FanSided" site - Rowan University Journalism Class of 2018.

Jake Ernst gives three picks from Saturday night’s NASCAR Quaker 400 Series race at Kentucky Speedway.

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With 18 races down and 18 races to go in the season, we have met out half way point in the season and NASCAR is headed to Kentucky to go night racing. The Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway will take place at 7:30pm on Saturday night and will carry late into the evening. If you plan on staying up to watch, this race could offer a great opportunity to earn some money by simply placing a bet.

While Kentucky is one of NASCAR’s newest tracks on the circuit (eight seasons) there are a select few drivers who seem like they’ve been racing there for much longer. Out of the eight races that the speedway has hosted, there have only been four different winners and I expect that streak to continue on Saturday.

What do you know; the most dominant driver of the 2019 NASCAR season is also one of the strongest drivers at Kentucky Speedway. Kyle Busch, driver of the No. 18 M&M’s Toyota has the best average finish (5.0) of any driver at Kentucky and has only finished outside the top-10 once out of his eight races at the track. While these stats are extremely impressive and hard to bet against, he hasn’t won at this track since 2015 and his odds aren’t very enticing at +450. Simply put, I believe there are better drivers to bet on for Saturday but don’t let this discourage you from placing a wager on him.

The pick: #2 Brad Keselowski to win the race at +750 on Fanduel Sportsbook

The driver of the #2 Miller Lite Ford has had a lot of success at Kentucky Speedway with the fifth-best average finish among active drivers (11.38) and has led the second-most laps (521) out of any driver to race at Kentucky. If these stats don’t impress you, maybe his wins will. Keselowski has won three races so far this season and three out of his eight races at Kentucky Speedway (most all time). He has also finished in the top-10 a remarkable six times, which is better than any driver not named Kyle Busch. Don’t overthink it, “Bad Brad” is very good at Kentucky and offers a ton of value at +750.

The pick: #19 Martin Truex Jr. to win the race at +450 on SugarHouse Sportsbook

Truex Jr. has been virtually untouchable at Kentucky over the last two seasons and I would be surprised if he didn’t continue that success on Saturday. The driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota is tied for the season-lead in wins (4) with Kyle Busch and has won the last two races at Kentucky. The 16-year veteran has led 373 laps at Kentucky over his eight races but what is most impressive is that 326 of those laps were led in his last two races. He revived his career a couple years ago and ever since, has been the driver to beat at Kentucky. His odds aren’t great, but with all of his recent success, they are better than I expected at +450.

The pick: #12 Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 3 at +500 on SugarHouse Sportsbook

The youngest of the Team Penske drivers and teammate of Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 MoneyLion Ford has only three races under his belt at Kentucky but has had some success. Out of his three races at the speedway, Blaney has finished in the top-10 twice, with his most recent finish being second place last season. It’ll certainly be tough to finish ahead of the likes of Busch, Keselowski and Truex Jr, but at +500 to finish in the top-3 you pretty much have to take those odds (I mean, he did do it just last year.)

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