After going 2-1 last night, Jason Radowitz finds three more games with value on the Monday slate.
Sunday was crazy. I took the Giants/Rockies over 7.5 in the first five innings. Eight runs were scored. After the first five innings? Nobody scored. (I guess I knew something!) Then we took the under in the first five for the Twins/Royals. Nobody scored a single run in the first five innings. (I guess I knew something!) We did lose on a full over with the Cardinals/Athletics. Can’t win them all, I guess. But we’ll take two of three. Today, we’ve got the Mets and Marlins playing a doubleheader. Even with Jacob deGrom pitching, it’s hard to bet a double-header. I would stay away from betting double headers as each team usually wins one game (but knowing which one is the tricky part.)
Yankees @ Orioles 7:05 pm
The New York Yankees (72-39) are coming off a sweep against the slumping Red Sox. The Yankees haven’t won a game by less than two runs in over a month. They’ve lost by a run. Haven’t won by a run. They’ve poured it on when they win. The Baltimore Orioles (38-73) have the opposite record compared to the Yankees. They’re about to get poured on. Masahiro Tanaka (7-6 4.78 ERA) of the Yankees had a July to forget. He wasn’t good. Even with Tanaka struggling, the Yankees have won eight of his last nine starts. In Tanaka’s two starts against the O’s, he’s pitched 11.2 innings, allowing just two earned runs. He’s had success against the Orioles. Gabriel Ynoa (1-6 5.55 ERA) has been a relief pitcher for most of the season. He’s only started seven games this season but those games haven’t been pretty. Insert the Yankees lineup and it’s understandable why I’ll be taking the Yankees on the runline -1.5.
Yankees -1.5 -166 @ Fanduel
Blue Jays @ Rays 7:10 pm
The Toronto Blue Jays (45-69) will be on the road against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Rays (65-48). Again, records could be swapped and they would look the same. The Rays have all the momentum right now. They’ve won six games in a row while matching the longest win streak of their season while the Blue Jays lost the final two games of their series against the Orioles. The Rays will be sending out Mr. Reliable Charlie Morton (12-3 2.78 ERA) against Jacob Waguespack (2-1 4.60 ERA). This will be Waguespack’s fifth start of the season. One start was against the Rays. He’s 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA against Tampa Bay. Morton has a 1.82 career ERA against the Blue Jays. This season, he had a no decision after leaving in the 5th inning after giving up one run. Morton has struggled in his last couple of starts against the Yankees and Red Sox (two power slugging teams). He rarely struggles against teams like Baltimore and Toronto. I’ll take the -1.5 runline for this game as well.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -131 @ Points Bet
Athletics @ Cubs 8:00 pm
This will be a fun interleague match-up between two contending teams in different divisions and conferences. The Chicago Cubs (60-51) have won 11 of their last 13 home games and 22 of their last 31 after sweeping the Brewers over the weekend. They’re 39-18 at home and getting extremely comfortable playing at Wrigley. Here’s the problem, when Kyle Hendricks (8-8 3.07 ERA) takes the mound, the Cubs forget how to score. They’ve scored three runs or less in each of Hendricks’ last seven starts. This has happened in 13 starts this season. The last time Hendricks faced the Athletics in 2016, he allowed just one run on three hits over 7.1 innings of work. Chris Bassitt (7-5 3.84 ERA) is 0-3 with a 3.55 during interleague match-ups.
This will be a tight, close match-up going into the 9th inning. That’s why I’ll gladly take the under in the first five innings. It’s been pretty profitable throughout the season when Hendricks takes the mound.
Athletics/Cubs UNDER 5.5 F5 -108 @ Fanduel