Jason Radowitz goes through Sunday’s Major League Baseball card and picks out the three best bets from the day’s schedule.
In August, the moneyline starts to adapt to how everything plays out. It’s hard to find value under the moneyline when very bad teams play very good teams. If you’re looking at potentially taking a great team vs. bad team, statistics show that you’ll profit off taking good teams on the runline against bad teams. With that said, I’m taking a different approach tomorrow. I see value in the over/under for Sunday. There’s something interesting starting pitching match-up’s and some value to be found. Below are my three best bets for Sunday (all being over/under!)
Royals @ Twins 2:10 pm
When you see a Twins game, you automatically think the total will go over. After all, they’ve scored the second most runs and hit the most home runs in the MLB. That should change Sunday afternoon. The Minnesota Twins (67-42) will be sending out Jake Odorizzi (12-5 3.73 ERA) to face Kansas City Royals’ (41-71) Brad Keller (7-10 4.01 ERA). Odorizzi has already faced the Royals twice, each time allowing four runs in four and six innings respectively. Keller has also faced the Twins twice, throwing two quality starts. The Royals bullpen isn’t very good and I’m not playing with fire. I like the under in the first five innings.
Royals/Twins Under 6 F5 -136 @ Points Bet
Giants @ Rockies 3:10 pm
Here comes a slugfest! The San Francisco Giants (55-55) will finish the third game of their series in the Colorado against the Rockies (51-59). Kyle Freeland (2-9 7.48 ERA) of the Rockies vs. Tyler Beede (3-5 5.01 ERA). Freeland has allowed six runs in 10 innings (in two starts) against the Giants. Furthermore, in eight starts in Colorado, he sports a 10.31 ERA allowing 42 earned runs in 36.2 innings (more than a run an inning!) Beede hasn’t been great himself. In his last two starts, Beede has allowed 10 hits and four earned runs in each start. On the road, Beede’s ERA is at 5.73 (and you can basically add another point due to playing in Colorado.) It’s fair to say, in the first five innings, we’ll see at least eight runs. I’ll take my chances on the first five over in this one. Slugfest coming at ya!
Giants/Rockies F5 OVER 7.5 -115 @ Points Bet
Cardinals @ Athletics 4:07 pm
Tanner Roark will be making his American League debut after being traded away from the Cincinnati Reds to the Oakland Athletics (62-48). Roark (6-7 4.24 ERA) struggled in the month of July posting an ERA of 7.30. He’ll go up against Adam Wainwright (7-7 4.47 ERA) of the St. Louis Cardinals (58-50). In Wainwright’s last five starts, he’s had an ERA of 4.85 but the Cardinals had won every game he pitched during that stretch. Wainwright has allowed current Oakland hitters to bat at an average of .302 in 43 plate appearances. Roark is way more familiar with the national league side and he’s seen the Cardinals batters plenty. They’ve hit an average of .295. I believe Roark will struggle in his first debut with the Athletics. Wainwright has a 7.16 ERA on the road. I’ll happily take the over 9 here.
Cardinals/Athletics OVER 9 -110 @ Fanduel