Daily MLB Picks: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday, July 20

Rob Senior previews the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies on July 20. He provides his expert prediction as well as best bets.

Date & Time:    Thursday, July 20, 12:35 P.M. Eastern
Moneyline:       Milwaukee Brewers (-110) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Runline:           Brewers -1.5 (+150)/Phillies +1.5 (-175)
Total:                Over 9.5 (+100)/Under 9.5 (-120)
Where:             Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Weather:          82 degrees, 5% chance of rain

Brewers vs. Phillies: Preview and Picks

Playoff Preview? It could be on Thursday, when Milwaukee and Philadelphia finish a three-game set in the City of Brotherly Love.

The teams are about identical in the standings, Philadelphia a half-game ahead of Milwaukee (52-42 vs. 52-43). So what will make the difference between these two contenders?

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young Award for the National League just two years ago in 2021, and his numbers in terms of ERA, strikeouts, and wins were as good or better than last season.

But early in 2023, Burnes struggled and admitted as much, expressing frustration with his own slow start.

He comes into Thursday at a record of 8-5 with an elevated (for him) 3.73 ERA. His last three starts have been stellar, however, with a 3-0 record and a 1.89 ERA. Burnes left the powerful Cincinnati offense befuddled a week ago, with some Reds players saying he had the best stuff they had seen all season.

The Brewers’ offense looks like the Christian Yelich Show, with the former MVP leading the team in every category from batting average to OPS and stolen bases. Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez offer middle-of-the-lineup support, though Tellez is doubtful with an injured finger. Milwaukee tends to go as Yelich goes.

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Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Phillies are starting to show signs of the explosive offense that carried them to the 2022 World Series, with SS Trea Turner getting comfortable in his new home and Bryce Harper’s return from injury.

Mr. All-or-Nothing, Kyle Schwarber, remains at the top of the order, tied for 3rd in the National League with 26 home runs while batting an anemic .189.

Schwarber’s an extreme example of a Philadelphia offense that seems to fire on all cylinders or stall out entirely. The Phillies have 10 games this season where they have scored eight runs or more – but another 10 games where they’ve either been shut out or limited to a single run.

If there was a better pitcher than Taijuan Walker in June, I didn’t see him. Walker went 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA last month. Against stronger offenses in Tampa Bay and San Diego, however, he’s posted more modest numbers his last two start while continuing his winning ways.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

It’s getaway day – an early start to allow both teams to travel – which sometimes means resting a few starters. Milwaukee’s mediocre offense is worse on the road, and starting pitcher Corbin Burnes seems to be rounding into form.

Walker can’t possibly keep up his June numbers forever, but against the Brewers I think he’ll be close. It all adds up to a pitchers’ duel in Philadelphia.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9.5 runs (-120)

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