With a slate of five NBA games, there are many player prop betting opportunities for Thursday night. Kevin Davis aka “Professor Props” has four player props that he likes.

Thursday January 14th

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

On Tuesday night, the Philadelphia 76ers hosted the Miami Heat in a wild game. In that game Miami led 63-55 at halftime, blew that lead, and then tied the game up to take the game to overtime. While that game was wild, it became clear how the 76ers approach the Heat. The Heat are a slightly better than average defense team, that is great at defending backcourt players. As a result, the 76ers relied on Joel Embiid heavily in Tuesday’s game as he scored 45 points and had 16 rebounds. I am tempted to bet on Embiid to go over his 26.5 point total, but I see more value in betting against backcourt players on the 76ers. That is why I am betting that Ben Simmons scores under 14.5 points and Shake Milton scores under 15.5 points.

Ben Simmons is a point guard even though he is 6’10 and can’t shoot three-pointers. Simmons strength is as a dynamic passer and rebounder. I do not see Simmons attempting many shots against a Miami team that allows opposing point guards to make 36.5% of their field goal attempts, the best of any NBA defense. Additionally, Simmons had only two field goal attempts on Tuesday night despite playing for 32 minutes. Simmons might go over his assist total, but I believe that he will go under his point total on Thursday night.

Like Ben Simmons, I believe that Shake Milton struggles against Miami. Earlier in the season I liked betting on Shake Milton’s point total overs because they were set too low when they were at 11.5 or 12.5 points. Now Milton’s point total has ballooned to 15.5 points. Even though Milton is playing for almost six minutes more per game this season, it is not reasonable to expect Milton to score 16 or more points off only 26 minutes per game. When you factor that in with a crowded 76ers offense that includes Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Seth Curry, we should expect Milton to score around 12 points per game.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Thursday night’s nationally televised game between the Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets is going to be a great game. While I still believe that it is unlikely that the Warriors make the playoffs, they have a competitive team this season built around Steph Curry. Without Curry, the Warriors would be at least ten-point underdogs in most of their games. With Steph Curry, the Warriors are six-point underdogs against a strong Denver Nuggets team. While the Steph Curry and Nuggets props are properly priced, the props for two of Golden State’s front court plays are inefficiently set. That is why I am betting that Draymond Green has under 7.5 points and James Wiseman has over 9.5 points.

Both power forward Draymond Green and center James Wiseman’s point totals are interrelated to each other. With Steph Curry, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Andrew Wiggins taking many shots, there are not that many opportunities for front court Warriors players to be involved offensively. While Draymond Green is playing for 27.1 minutes per game this season, he is only averaging 4.4 points per game which is much lower than his career average of 8.9. Additionally, Green must compete with rookie center James Wiseman for front court scoring opportunities and that is why it seems like a no-brainer to bet that Green scores under 7.5 points. Wiseman is currently averaging 10.6 points per game despite playing for only 20.7 minutes per game. I see Wiseman playing for 25 minutes in Thursday night’s game and that is why I am betting that he scores over 9.5 points.

Wednesday January 13th

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks

Starting point guard Kyrie Irving is still out for the Brooklyn Nets for an unknown personal reason. Despite the absence of the high-volume shooting Kyrie Irving, the Nets have been predictable. Kevin Durant is the biggest offensive option for the Nets, Caris Levert is the second biggest option, Jarrett Allen will average a near double-double, and Joe Harris will continue playing a supporting role. As of the writing of this article the player prop totals for the Nets have yet to be released, but Tuesday’s player props for the Nets were perfectly set. That is why I am avoiding Brooklyn entirely, and instead focusing on the Knicks.

The Knicks are led by power forward Julius Randle, who is a poor man’s Nikola Jokic. Randle has been a more active passer and shooter this season and his minutes have increased to 37.1 minutes per game which is almost five minutes more per game than last year. As a result, Randle is now averaging a double-double, 22.1 points per game, and 6.9 assists per game. Every player prop available for Randle for Wednesday night’s nationally televised game is set properly including his assist total.

As a result of Randle’s emergence in the passing game, it has gone unnoticed that point guard Elfrid Payton is less involved in the passing game. Despite playing for the same number of minutes this season as he has played for in the past, Payton is averaging only 4.5 assists per game which is a career low. Last year, Payton averaged 7.2 assists per game. That is why I am betting that Payton has fewer than 5.5 assists at +110 odds.

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers

The key to betting on player props involving the LA Clippers is to figure out how many minutes are given to their star players Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. In games where they are expected to easily win, the Clippers like to play Leonard and George for fewer minutes due to their past injury history. In the games that are projected to be close, the Clippers play their star players for more minutes. Wednesday night’s Clippers game against the Pelicans is going to be nationally televised. The NBA league office does not like it when the Clippers rest their star players. Adam Silver does not want to see Zion Williamson go up against Ivica Zubac. That is why I believe that we should expect to see at least 32 minutes from both George and Leonard.

From a player prop betting prospective, the conventional wisdom dictates that you should look for good overs on either George or Leonard. However, their opponents the Pelicans play a much different brand of basketball this year. Last season, New Orleans played at the 2^nd fastest pace in the league. This season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy, the Pelicans play at the 7^th slowest tempo. With fewer possessions it is hard for players to rack up high statistical totals and that is why the player props for the Clipper star players have been accurately set. Except for the rebound total for Kawhi Leonard.

Kawhi Leonard may be a high usage player for the Clippers, but he is becoming less of an active rebounder. Currently this season Leonard is averaging only 4.9 rebounds which is 2.2 fewer rebounds than last season. The most rational explanation for Leonard’s declining rebound share is that he must compete with fellow teammates Serge Ibaka, Ivica Zubac, and Paul George for rebounds. In eight out of nine games this season, Leonard had fewer than 6.5 rebounds. That is why I am betting that he has under 6.5 rebounds.

In addition to betting on Leonard’s rebound total under, I am also betting on Serge Ibaka to go under his rebound total of 7.5 rebounds. While Ibaka is certainly capable of averaging a double-double if he gets the minutes, it is unlikely that he can get eight or more rebounds as a role player. Currently Ibaka is averaging only 25.5 minutes per game. It is hard to see how any player even as talented as Serge Ibaka can get eight rebounds on this Clippers team playing only 25 minutes a game. That is why I am betting on him having under 7.5 rebounds at even money odds.

Tuesday January 12th

Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets

Starting point guard Kyrie Irving is still out for the Brooklyn Nets for an unknown personal reason. Despite the absence of the high-volume shooting Kyrie Irving, the Nets have been predictable. Kevin Durant is the biggest offensive option for the Nets, Caris Levert is the second biggest option, Jarrett Allen will average a near double-double, and Joe Harris will continue playing a supporting role. The player prop odds accurately reflect this reality as Kevin Durant’s point total is set at 29.5 when my model without the vig sets it at 30.5 points. My model also sets Levert’s vig-free point total at 21.96 points when the books set it at 20.5 points. Currently every player on the Brooklyn Nets is properly priced, but a few of the Denver Nuggets are being overvalued by the betting markets.

The Nuggets as a team have a clear offensive identity. Their biggest offensive contributor is Nikola Jokic who in addition to playing Center, plays like a guard as well. They also have point guard Jamal Murray who is a high usage player. Both Jokic and Murray are accurately priced today as they usually are, while the player prop totals for the Nuggets role players have not been properly priced all season. For Tuesday’s game shooting guard Gary Harris and small forward Will Barton have player prop totals that are set too high.

Gary Harris is currently averaging 10.6 points per game, and last season he averaged 10.4 points per game. That is why it should be no surprise that his point total has been set at 10.5 points tonight. On paper this looks efficient, but Harris is averaging a field goal shooting percentage of 46.2 percent. My model predicts that Harris will revert to last season’s shooting percentage of 42% and that is why I believe that he scores fewer than 10.5 points. Harris’ field goal percentage is more important than most players as he only averages 1.5 free throw attempts per game.

Will Barton is another Nuggets player whose player prop totals have been set too high. Barton’s point total may look properly set as last season Barton averaged 15.1 points per game. This season Barton is averaging only 10.6 points per game which is partly due to his 40.2% field goal percentage. However, the best reason to bet against Barton is not because

of his field goal percentage, but because he is taking fewer field goal attempts. Last season Barton averaged 12.7 field goal attempts per game and this season he is averaging only 10.2. Additionally, Barton averaged five three-pointer attempts per game last season and this season he is averaging only 3.4. For Barton to have at least two three points he needs to attempt more three-pointers and make them at a higher rate than he has been making them. That is why in addition to betting on Barton to score under 13.5 points, I am betting on him making fewer than 1.5 three-pointers.

Pick 1: Gary Harris (DEN) Under 10.5 Points (-112)

Pick 2: Will Barton Under (DEN) 13.5 Points (-110)

Pick 3: Will Barton (DEN) Under 1.5 Three-Pointers (+100)

Friday January 8th

Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks

On Friday night, the 5-3 New York Knicks host the 3-4 Oklahoma City Thunder. While it is surprising that the Knicks have a winning record even after only eight games, the player props for almost all the Knicks have been set correctly. The betting markets and betting public have correctly determined that power forward Julius Randle and shooting guard RJ Barrett are the statistical leaders of the Knicks. Barrett and Randle are both averaging 38 minutes per game and their player prop totals accurately reflect the impact of their increased playing time. While both Randle and Barrett are properly priced, Mitchell Robinson universally has artificially high prop totals in all statistical categories. That is why I am betting that he has fewer than 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists.

Last season Robinson averaged only 23.1 minutes per game. Since he has been added to the starting lineup this season, Mitch Robinson is now averaging 29.5 minutes per game. Despite playing 27.7% more minutes per game, Robinson’s points and rebounds averages are nearly identical to his numbers from last season. This might mean that bettors should target Robinson’s player prop overs, but something other than his talent will keep him away from going over his totals. While Robinson has the highest win shares per 48 minutes of any regular Knicks rotation player, he fouls too much to stay in the game for a long time. Last season Robinson was 14^th in the league in fouls per 36 minutes. Even if Robinson can avoid getting into foul trouble it will be hard for him to compete with Julius Randle in the front court for rebounds and shooting opportunities. That is why I am betting that Robinson has under 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists.

Pick 1: Mitchell Robinson (NYK) Under 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)

Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans

For Friday night’s first nationally televised game, the New Orleans Pelicans host the Charlotte Hornets. The Pelicans are easily expected to win as they are six points favorites. From a player prop betting angle, the props have been set correctly for most of the Hornets. Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier are the most prominent offensive options for Charlotte. Bismack Biyombo is getting more minutes at center because of Cody Zeller’s absence, but he is not really doing that much more in his increased playing time. While the Hornets props are properly set, the Pelicans props have not been set properly. Bettors are underestimating Brandon Ingram’s role and overestimating Stephen Adams supporting role. That is why I am betting that Adams has under 12.5 points and that Ingram has over 28.5 points, rebounds, and assists

The conventional wisdom is that the Pelicans are led by 2019 number one overall draft pick Zion Williamson. While Zion plays a pivotal role for the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram receives little attention for a player averaging 24.9 points per game. Last year in his first season with New Orleans, Ingram averaged 23.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Ingram’s performance was so impressive that he won the NBA’s award for the Most Improved Player. This season Ingram is averaging more points, rebounds, and assists than he did last year when on average he would have more than 28.5 per game. With Ingram continuing to play such a pivotal role on the Pelicans, I will be betting on him having over 28.5 points, rebounds, and assists in Friday night’s game.

While Ingram and Williamson dominate the Pelicans frontcourt, center Stephen Adams is left in the shadows. Last season Adams averaged 10.9 points per game with the Oklahoma City Thunder. This season Adams is averaging ten points per game which is not much of a dropoff. However, my model likes Adams to go under his point total because of his lack of field goal attempts per game. Despite playing fewer minutes last year, Adams averaged one more field goal attempt per game last season than he is this season. Adams currently has a field goal percentage of 66% which is impressive but unsustainable. With Adams as an afterthought in the Pelicans offense, I feel confident betting on him to score fewer than 12.5 points in Friday night’s matchup.

Pick 1: Stephen Adams (NOP) Under 12.5 Points (-120)

Pick 2: Brandon Ingram (NOP) Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120)

Thursday January 7th

Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies

Thursday night’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Memphis Grizzlies is not going to receive much attention from the betting public. Both teams are small market teams who are unlikely to make the playoffs. Additionally, the best players for both teams Kevin Love and Ja Morant are out. However, despite the lack of talent in Thursday night’s game, there are few great player prop betting opportunities for the Memphis Grizzlies. The betting markets still have not properly adjusted to Ja Morant’s absence. That is why I am betting that Brandon Clarke has under 21.5 points, rebounds, and assists and that Dillon Brooks has over 3.5 rebounds.

Among last year’s Grizzlies rookies, Ja Morant obviously got the most attention as he won the Rookie of the Year award. However, another rookie who played a key role on the Grizzlies was power forward Brandon Clarke. In 22 minutes per game, Clarke averaged 12.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Last season off the bench, Clark averaged 22.4 minutes per game. This season in the starting lineup with Jaren Jackson’s absence, Clark is averaging 27 minutes per game. The conventional wisdom is that Clarke should be putting up bigger numbers do his increased workload but so far that has not been the case. Clarke is averaging fewer rebounds per game and he is averaging about the same number of points because his field goal percentage has dropped from 61.8% to 43.8. Currently Clarke is averaging 16.7 points, rebounds, and assists per game. With Clarke failing to perform as well this season, there is enormous value in betting that he has under 21.5 points, rebounds, and assists in Thursday’s game

While Clarke has not taken advantage of Morant’s absence, shooting guard Dillion Brooks has. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Brooks should average more points per game in Morant’s absence but that has not been the case as he is only averaging less than a point per game more this season. However, Brooks is quietly averaging more rebounds. Last season Brooks averaged 3.3 rebounds per game in 28.7 minutes per game. This season playing 30.6 minutes per game, Brooks is averaging 4.4 rebounds per game. That is why I was shocked to see that his rebound total was set at only 3.5 rebounds. Brooks has had four or more rebounds in five of seven games this season. I believe that he will have at least four in Thursday night’s game.

Pick 1: Brandon Clarke (MEM) Under 21.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120)

Pick 2: Dillon Brooks (MEM) Over 3.5 Rebounds (-135)

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets

Thursday’s late-night game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets is going to receive a lot of attention from the betting public. Both teams have MVP candidates in Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, and both teams are likely to make the playoffs again. Typically, superstars like Doncic and Jokic have prop totals set too high for nationally televised games. The betting public loves for superstars to have big games and as a result they like betting overs on superstars. However, based on how well both players have started the season their player prop totals have been accurately set. As a result, there are two role players on Denver that I am targeting for my player prop bets.

Power forward Paul Millsap is a key role player on the Nuggets. He only averages 24.3 minutes per game due to a wealth of bench talent on Denver’s roster. Additionally, Millsap must compete with Jokic for front court possessions and defensive rebounds. Despite all of this, Millsap’s point total for Thursday night’s game has been set too low at 9.5 points. Currently Millsap is averaging 12.1 points per game and last season with the same role in which he averaged 11.6 points per game last season. Even in Millsap’s last game where he played for only 16 minutes, he scored 10 points. In fact, Millsap has scored ten or more points in five of seven games this season. I believe that Millsap will quietly score at least ten points tonight against the Mavericks.

While Millsap does not play for many minutes and is likely to go over his point total, shooting guard Gary Harris plays for more minutes and is likely to go under his point total. Currently Harris plays for 31 minutes per game, yet he averages only eight points per game. The most obvious reason for this is that he must share the ball with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. However, another reason why he is only averaging eight points per game is because he has a 37.7% field goal percentage and a woeful 12% three-pointer percentage. While Harris is likely to improve his shooting, he is going to continue to be barely noticeable in Denver’s offense. That is why I am betting that he scores under 8.5 points in Thursday night’s game.

Pick 1: Paul Millsap (DEN) Over 9.5 Points (-110)

Pick 2: Gary Harris (DEN) Under 8.5 Points (-105)

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 15-19, -7.04 Units, -20.7% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Previous NBA Prop Picks

After a rough start to the NBA season, Professor Props took a break for the New Year’s holiday. During that break, Professor Props reignited the NBA player prop model that was successful during the playoffs for the current season. In his first game since his hiatus, the prop professor went 2-1 with his props. On Wednesday, he has five props that he likes.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 12-17, -7.99 Units, -27.6% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Wednesday January 6th

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers

Pick 1: Thomas Bryant (WAS) Under 13.5 Points (+100 at FanDuel)

Pick 2: Rui Hachimura (WAS) Over 10.5 Points (-105 at BetMGM)

Pick 3: Shake Milton (PHI) Over 11.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel)

On Wednesday night, the Philadelphia 76ers host the Washington Wizards. The 76ers are currently 6.5 point favorites which is a spread that I agree with. Additionally, most of the player props for Philadelphia have been accurately set according to my recently revised model. For example, the point totals on Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Seth Curry have been accurately set. While the visible players on the 76ers are not worth betting on for Wednesday night, backup shooting guard Shake Milton is.

Even though Milton is a bench player on a talented team, he has seen an increase in minutes this season as he is averaging 25.3 minutes per game which is more than five minutes more per game than last season. The reason why I am betting on Milton to go over his point total of 11.5 points is that he is averaging 10.6 field goal attempts per game which is 3.7 more attempts per game than last season. Milton may have a field goal percentage of only 40.5%, but he is still averaging 12 points per game. Additionally, Washington allows 27.7 points per game to opposing shooting guards which is the 2^nd worst in the league. That is why betting on Shake Milton to score over 11.5 points at +104 odds is a great bet.

For the Wizards side of the ball, their offense is dominated by their backcourt of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. The player props for both players have been accurately set for Wednesday’s game according to my model. However, the frontcourt which is led by Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant is filled with great player prop betting opportunities.

Center Thomas Bryant can put up big numbers when he does not have to share a ball with Power Forward Rui Hachimura. Since Hachimura has come back from injury over the last three games, Bryant’s numbers have gone down. Bryant may be averaging 17.9 points per game, but there is enormous value in betting on him to score fewer than 13.5 points at even money odds. Additionally, it is worth betting on Hachimura to score over 10.5 points as he has averaged 14.3 points per game over his first three games this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans

Pick 1: Brandon Ingram (NOP) Over 4.5 Assists (+110 at BetMGM)

Pick 2: George Hill (OKC) Over 10.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

The betting public and the oddsmakers have a good understanding of the roles that each Pelican player is playing this year. Zion Williamson can be expected to score a little over 20 points per game and have 8 to 9 rebounds. Eric Bledsoe can be expected to play less of a role than his predecessor Jrue Holiday played. However, Brandon Ingram is being overlooked.

Ingram who won an award last year as the league’s most improved player is averaging 25 points per game this season. While I like him to score over 22.5 points at -120 odds, the bet that provides even greater value is on betting on Ingram to have over 4.5 assists. Last year in his breakout season Ingram averaged 4.2 assists per game. This season after seven games, Ingram is averaging 5.7 assists per game. Brandon Ingram is playing a larger role in the Pelicans offense this season as a passer and that is why it is a bargain to bet on him having over 4.5 assists at plus money odds.

In addition to Brandon Ingram, one player that is being overlooked is George Hill. Over the last two years, Hill had to compete for playing time on a congested Milwaukee Bucks roster. This season Hill is a veteran starter on a young team and his usage has increased. Last year, Hill played for fewer minutes and had a usage percentage of 15.5%. This season, Hill’s usage rate has increased to 19%. Additionally, Hill has increased his field goal attempts per game from only 6.4 to 9.2 per game. That is why it is a great bet to bet on Hill to score over 10.5 points in Wednesday night’s game.

Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Thomas Bryant Under 13.5 Points Pays $100

$50 Rui Hachimura Over 10.5 Points Pays $97.62

$50 Shake Milton Over 11.5 Points Pays $102

$50 Brandon Ingram Over 4.5 Assists Pays $105

$50 George Hill Over 10.5 Points Pays $95.45

After a rough start to the NBA season, Professor Props took a break for the New Year’s holiday. During that break, Professor Props reignited the NBA player prop model that was successful during the playoffs for the current season. Looking to end his losing streak, the prop professor has three props that he likes for Tuesday NBA slate.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 10-16, -8.66 Units, -33.3% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Tuesday January 5th

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

Pick: Nikola Jokic (DEN) Over 45.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)

On Tuesday night, the Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both teams have started off the season with 2-4 records, but unsurprisingly the Nuggets are 12-point favorites. This is not a surprise as Denver last season made it to the Western Conference Finals while Minnesota was one of the eight teams that was not good enough to play in the bubble. The other reason why the Nuggets are heavily favored is because the Timberwolves best player Center Karl-Anthony Towns is out with a wrist injury.

Towns is known for his offense as he averaged 26.5 points and 3.3 three-pointers per game last season. While KAT’s absence is accurately reflected baked into the spread for Tuesday night’s game, in my opinion it is not accurately reflected in the player prop totals. For Minnesota currently only player props for D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley have been posted, but I believe they have been accurately set. While the Timberwolves props are accurately set, for Denver they are set too low.

Even though Towns is best known for his offense, he is also a strong defensive player. If KAT were to play, he would be defending dominant Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. Jokic is currently averaging a triple-double and he has been unstoppable. With an average of 22.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 12.8 assists per game, Jokic is averaging 46.3 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game. Currently Jokic’s PRA total is set at only 45.5 for Tuesday night’s game. I believe that Jokic will have a bigger night than usual due to Towns’ absence and that is why I am betting that he has over 45.5 points, rebounds, and assists.

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers

Pick 1: Coby White (CHI) Under 19.5 Points (-125)

Pick 2: Jusuf Nurkic (POR) Under 13.5 Points (-125)

For Tuesday’s late-night game between the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers, there are many good player prop unders that I like. My favorite player prop under that I like is for Coby White to score fewer than 19.5 points at -125 odds. All season White has had his point total set at around 18.5 or 19.5 points for each of his games. So far White has only scored 20 or more points in two of his games. That is why my NBA player prop model believes that White’s point total should be set at 15.8 points.

The conventional wisdom for White is that he should be scoring more points this season as he is in the starting lineup. However, this season he is only averaging 1.7 more field goal attempts per game than last season despite playing 7.1 more minutes per game. That is why I will continue taking the under on his point totals until the lines are properly set.

My second favorite player prop for Tuesday night’s game is for Trail Blazers Center Jusuf Nurkic to score under 13.5 points. Last season Nurkic played only eight regular season games during Portland’s epic playoff run in the bubble where he averaged 17.6 points per game. During that run Nurkic averaged 31.6 minutes per game, 13.6 field goal attempts, and 4.4 free throw attempts. This season after six games, it has been a completely different story for Nurkic as he is averaging only 24.3 minutes, 8.2 field goal attempts, and 2.3 free throw attempts per game. As a result, Nurkic is averaging only 9 points per game.

Nurkic may be capable of scoring 14 or more points, but I do not think that he is getting enough touches to go over his point total on Tuesday night. That is why I am betting that he scores fewer than 13.5 points.

Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Nikola Jokic Over 45.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists Pays $93.48

$50 Coby White Under 19.5 Points Pays $90

$50 Jusuf Nurkic Under 13.5 Points Pays $90

Tuesday December 29th

Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons

Pick 1: Steph Curry Most Points (-185)

Pick 2: James Wiseman (GSW) Over 10.5 Points (-126)

The Golden State Warriors have played only three games so far, yet many conclusions can be drawn. The Warriors first two games against the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks were epic blowouts. In their last game against the Chicago Bulls, the Warriors won a high scoring game as narrow favorites. Against the Nets and Bucks, Steph Curry played for less than 30 minutes in each game, but against the Bulls Curry played for 36 minutes. Golden State is favored tonight by 3.5 points, so I believe that Curry will play for enough minutes to go over his player prop totals.

While there is merit on betting for Curry to score over his 27.5 point total, I believe that they best valued Curry player prop is for him to score the most points. There is no one else on the Warriors that takes as many shots as Curry. Additionally, on the opposing Pistons, their two leading offensive players Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose are not expected to play that many minutes as they sat out last night’s game against the Hawks. That is why the juice is worth the squeeze on betting that Steph Curry is top point scorer at -185 odds.

In addition to Curry, another Warriors player that I like to be an active scorer is rookie center James Wiseman. While I initially expected the number two overall draft pick to play a minor role in the Warriors offense this season, he has emerged as a dynamic scorer. In his first two games, averaged 18.5 points per game despite playing only 25 minutes per game. In Wiseman’s last game his point total was set at 12.5 points, and he scored only seven points. While that was a disappointing performance it does not merit lowering his point total to only 10.5 points. I see Wiseman playing 25 to 30 minutes to tonight and scoring 13-15 points, that is why I am betting that he scores over 10.5 points.

Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings

Pick 1: Richaun Holmes (SAC) Under 8.5 Points (-106)

Pick 2: Harrison Barnes (SAC) Under 1.5 Three-Pointers (-150)

Pick 3: Marvin Bagley (SAC) Under 0.5 Three-Pointers (-125)

The Sacramento Kings have too many chefs, but only one kitchen. One thing that I am looking out for in betting on player props for the Sacramento Kings are the best unders for their front court players. The Kings have a logjam in the front court as they have Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes, Nemanja Bjelica, Harrison Barnes, and Hassan Whiteside as regular rotation players. On Sunday I bet on Marvin Bagley scoring under 15.5 points, and he scored only 11. For tonight’s game Bagley’s point total has been set at 14.5 points which is a great bet. But the bet that I like even more is for Bagley to score under 0.5 three-pointers. Bagley is only averaging 25.3 minutes per game and for his career is only averaging 1.6 three-pointer attempts per game. In a lineup with a high-volume shooting backcourt and with a lack of minutes, I think it is unlikely that Bagley makes a three-pointer tonight.

Another front court player that I see going under their three-pointer total is Harrison Barnes. While Barnes occasionally will have a random game where he scores 30 points and makes five three-pointers, he typically will score only 15 points and make only one three-pointer. In three games this season Barnes has yet to make a three-pointer and he has only attempted two per game. For Barnes to have at least two three pointers he needs to attempt five or six three-pointers. In a crowded Kings roster that includes the high-volume shooting Buddy Hield I do not see him getting that many attempts. That is why I am betting that he scores under 1.5 three-pointers.

Besides Barnes and Bagley, Richaun Holmes is another front court player that is worth betting against. Holmes is an interior scorer mainly known for his defense who must compete with many players for shooting attempts and minutes. This season Holmes is averaging only 24 minutes and 5.3 field goal attempts per game. With a crowded Kings frontcourt and Nikola Jokic defending him, I am betting that Holmes scores under 8.5 points.

Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Steph Curry Most Points Pays $97.17

$50 James Wiseman Over 10.5 Points Pays $89.68

$50 Richaun Holmes Under 8.5 Points Pays $97.17

$50 Harrison Barnes Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Pays $83.33

$50 Marvin Bagley Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Pays $90

There may be a large slate of NFL games today, but there also is a large slate of NBA games today. The NBA season is still young, and as a result there are many great player prop betting opportunities.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 7-14, -9.09 Units, -43.3% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Sunday December 27th

Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls

Pick 1: Steph Curry (GSW) Over 25.5 Points (-105)

Pick 2: James Wiseman (GSW) Over 12.5 Points (+105)

Pick 3: Coby White (CHI) Under 16.5 Points (-110)

The Golden State Warriors have played only two games so far, yet many conclusions can be drawn. Both Warriors games so far against the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks have been epic blowouts. Golden State was a seven-point underdog against Brooklyn and a ten-point dog against Milwaukee, so their blowout losses were not a surprise. On Sunday night, the Warriors are favored by three points against the lowly Chicago Bulls. From a player prop betting prospective the question is, how players will do when playing more minutes in a close game.

In both Warriors blowout losses, they rested their bench players in the fourth quarter when the games were out of reach. With Sunday night’s game likely to be close, I expect the Warriors starters to get more minutes. Steph Curry played for only 29 minutes against Milwaukee, and only 30 minutes against Brooklyn. Despite playing for only 29.5 minutes per game this season, Curry is averaging 19 field goal attempts per game. With Curry likely to play for 36 minutes tonight, I think he attempts about 23 field goals and scores about 30 points. That is why I am betting that he scores over 25.5 points.

In addition to Curry, another Warriors player that I like to go over their point total is rookie center James Wiseman. While I initially expected the number two overall draft pick to play a minor role in the Warriors offense this season, he has emerged as a dynamic scorer. Despite averaging only 25 minutes per game, Wiseman is averaging 18.5 points per game. While I believe that Wiseman will not continue performing this well, I see him averaging about 15 points per game this season. With a likely increase in minutes tonight against the Bulls, I am betting that James Wiseman scores over 12.5 points.

On the Bulls, one player whose point totals have been set too high this season is Coby White. In White’s last game, despite making four three-pointers White had only 12 points. Zach Lavine and Lauri Markannen are the focal points of Chicago’s offense not Coby White. Additionally, I see him averaging only 25 minutes per game this season. That is why I am betting that White scores fewer than 16.5 points against the Warriors.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings

Pick 1: Marvin Bagley (SAC) Under 15.5 Points (-120)

Pick 2: Buddy Hield (SAC) Under 4.5 Three-Pointers (-156)

Last night the Sacramento Kings played the Phoenix Suns, and tonight both teams meet again. One thing that I am looking out for in betting on player props for the Sacramento Kings are the best unders for their front court players. The Kings have a logjam in the front court as they have Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes, Nemanja Bjelica, and Hassan Whiteside as regular rotation players. Of all the front court players for the Kings, my favorite player prop under tonight is for Marvin Bagley to score under 15.5 points. Bagley played for only 21 minutes last night, and 27 minutes on opening night. In a lineup with a high-volume shooting backcourt and with a lack of minutes, I see Bagley averaging about 12 to 13 points this season unless he receives an increase in playing time.

One of the high-volume shooters who will take away shots from Bagley in tonight’s game is shooting guard Buddy Hield. Hield who averaged 9.6 three-point attempts last season, is averaging 9.0 attempts this season. Even with Hield attempting so many three-pointers, I am still taking the under on his three-pointer total since it is set at 4.5 made three-pointers. Hield would have to either hit half of his three-pointers, and/or attempt more three-pointers than usual. I believe that both are unlikely and that is why I am betting that he has under 4.5 three-pointers.

Sunday NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Steph Curry Over 25.5 Points Pays $97.62

$50 James Wiseman Over 12.5 Points Pays $102.50

$50 Coby White Under 16.5 Points Pays $95.50

$50 Marvin Bagley Under 15.5 Points Pays $91.67

$50 Buddy Hield Under 4.5 Three-Pointers Pays $82.05

After a primetime Christmas day slate of games, today is Boxing Day and we have a loaded NBA slate of ten games. With many great player prop betting opportunities, my favorite games for player props today are the matchups between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, and the Oklahoma City Thunders and the Charlotte Hornets.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 5-10, -6.71 Units, -44.7% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Saturday December 26th

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons

Pick 1: Mason Plumlee (DET) Under 7.5 Rebounds (-114)

Pick 2: Blake Griffin (DET) Under 6.5 Rebounds (-140)

Pick 3: Killian Hayes (DET) Under 15.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110)

On Wednesday night, the Detroit Pistons played their first game of the season and predictably lost 101-111 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. What was most noteworthy about that game was that the Pistons were ahead by five points at the end of the 3^rd quarter, yet they managed to lose the games by ten points. While that game was an epic collapse for Detroit, what was most noteworthy about that game from a player prop betting prospective is that there are too many mouths to feed on the Pistons roster. They have a rotation of five front court players, and four backcourt players. There is only one ball and 48 minutes in a game, that is why I think that the player prop totals for most of the Pistons have been set to high. As a result, I am taking player prop unders on Mason Plumlee, Blake Griffin, and Killian Hayes.

The Pistons starting three front court players are Blake Griffin, Jerami Grant, and Mason Plumlee. In addition to those starting three players, Detroit also has Josh Jackson and Jahlil Okafor coming of the bench. With so many frontcourt players getting minutes, I am betting on Blake Griffin having under 6.5 rebounds and Mason Plumlee having under 7.5 rebounds. Last season Griffin averaged only 4.7 rebounds per game and 28.4 minutes per game. In Griffin’s lone game this season he played for 35 minutes and had seven rebounds. Griffin is likely to only play 25-30 minutes per game this season in a crowded frontcourt, and that is why I think he has fewer than 6.5 rebounds on Saturday night. In addition to betting against Griffin, I believe that Plumlee will have under 7.5 rebounds because last season he averaged only 17.3 minutes per game. If Plumlee plays anything close to that this season, he will not come close to eight or more rebounds on Saturday night.

Besides Detroit’s crowded frontcourt, they have a crowded backcourt as well. That is why I am betting that Killian Hayes has under 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists. Hayes is a rookie from France who must compete with Derrick Rose, Svi Myhailiuk, and Delon Wright or minutes. In his debut on Wednesday night, Hayes played for only 21 minutes and had seven points, three assists, and one rebounds. I believe that he will have a similar performance on Saturday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets

Pick 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) Under 20.5 Points (+136)

Pick 2: Al Horford (OKC) Over 11.5 Points (-122)

Pick 3: Gordon Hayward (CHA) Most Points (+460)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be one of the most fascinating teams to bet on this season. After making the playoffs last year, the Thunder decided to gut their roster. Now all that is left on the OKC roster is a bunch of young players, and veterans that are past their primes. The biggest name among these young players is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander whose point total is set at 20.5 points. The conventional wisdom is that SGA will get a ton of possessions and will score a lot of points. Last season Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 19 points per game on a crowded roster. However, despite his projected increase in usage Basketball-Reference.com projects that SGA will score 18.5 per 36 minutes. Even with SGA likely to play 33-36 minutes per game, I believe that he will average between 18-19 points per game this season. That is why I am excited to bet on Gilgeous-Alexander to go under 20.5 points tonight at +136 odds.

With SGA’s rosy projections, the rest of the players for tonight’s matchup are being overlooked. As a result, I am going to take a flier on Gordon Hayward scoring the most points at +460 odds. Last season Hayward was on a crowded Celtics roster and he still managed to average 17.5 points per game. This season Hayward plays on a team in the Hornets where he is the best player. In his first game on Wednesday, Hayward attempted 18 field goal attempts and as a result he scored 28 points. If Hayward has a performance like that again tonight, he will score the most points in the game and that is why I am taking a flier on that bet.

Another player prop that is set too low because of SGA’s point total being set to high is the point total on OKC power forward Al Horford at 11.5 points. Last season with the 76ers, Horford averaged 11.9 points per game. That is why on the surface Horford’s point total for Saturday’s game looks reasonable. However, unlike last season where Horford had to share the ball with Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Ben Simmons, there is no one in the Thunder front court of note for Horford to share the ball with. I believe that Horford will average about 13 to 14 points per game this season and that is why I am taking the over on his point total on Saturday.

Boxing Day NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Mason Plumlee Under 7.5 Rebounds Pays $93.86

$50 Blake Griffin Under 6.5 Rebounds Pays $85.71

$50 Killian Hayes Under 15.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists Pays $95.45

$50 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 20.5 Points Pays $118

$50 Al Horford Over 11.5 Points Pays $90.98

$50 Gordon Hayward Most Points Pays $280

Christmas is here and that means only three things. Santa Claus, Chinese food, and NBA player props. This Christmas we have a nationally televised slate of five games. Unlike a typical NBA season, this year’s Christmas slate features teams that have only played once. With little information out on each team’s tendencies, there are many great betting opportunities.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 4-6, -2.66 Units, -26.6% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Friday December 25th

Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick 1: Steph Curry (GSW) Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-107)

Pick 2: Steph Curry (GSW) Most Christmas Day Points (+1000)

On opening night, many conclusions can be drawn from Golden State’s 99-125 loss to the Brooklyn Nets. While it is easy to see how dominant the Nets will be based Kevin Durant’s strong performance, the most important conclusions are the ones that can be drawn from the Warriors. The Warriors this season are likely to be a bad team. They have a rookie starting center, two wings in Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. who are unreliable, and a lack of bench depth. There is no one on the Warriors this season other than Steph Curry. After years of having to play in the shadow of other starts, Steph Curry is the only star on the Warriors. That is why I am betting that he has over 37.5 points, rebounds, and assists, and that he has the most Christmas Day points of any NBA player at +1000 odds.  

On Tuesday night, Curry played only 30 minutes, and made only 33% of his field goal attempts and that is why he scored only 20 points. What was most important to me about Curry’s performance was not that he scored only 20 points, it was that he attempted 21 field goals, and 10 of those attempts were from beyond the arc. If Curry were to make half of his 2 pointer attempts, 40% of his three-pointers, and 5-6 free throws, he will average about 30 points per game this season. If Curry gets hot, he could easily score 40-50 points on Christmas and have more points than any other NBA player. Combined with Curry having four rebounds and ten assists on Tuesday, I believe that Curry will have over 37.5 points, rebounds, and assists on Christmas.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers

Pick 1: Luka Doncic Under 48.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105)

Pick 2: Montrezl Harrell Under 15.5 Points (-115)

Pick 3: Marc Gasol Over 5.5 Points (-112)

Pick 4: Dennis Schroder More Points Than Montrezl Harrell (-114)

Luka Doncic is a high scoring triple-double threat anytime he plays. That is why his points, rebounds, and assists total is set at 48.5. However, even for Doncic that is a stretch. Last season, Doncic performed exceptionally well averaging 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game which equates to 47 points, rebounds and assists per game. For Doncic to go over his total, he must perform better than usual against a strong Lakers defense. Last season the Lakers gave up the 8^th fewest rebounds and 7^th fewest assists per game to opposing point guards. Additionally, the Lakers had the fourth best defensive efficiency in the NBA. That is why I am betting that Doncic has fewer than 48.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists against the Lakers.

In addition to my Doncic bet, I have three more player prop bets for my Christmas stocking all of which involve Montrezl Harrell. On Tuesday night, Harrell scored 17 points against the Clippers. What I see as more noteworthy is that Harrell shot 6 for 7 and made five three throws. Additionally, Harrell received more playing time because starting center Marc Gasol played for only 12 minutes because he had five fouls. In the future I believe that Harrell will receive less playing time off the bench and will not be able to score 16 or more points off only seven field goal attempts. That is why I am betting that Harrell has under 15.5 points. I also am betting that the highly active Dennis Schroder scores more points than Harrell on Christmas.

In Marc Gasol’s first game as a Laker, he played for only 12 minutes because of foul trouble and had zero points. I believe that he will average about eight points this season and 25 minutes per game. That is why I am betting that he scores over 5.5 points on Christmas.

Christmas NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Steph Curry Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists pays $96.73

$50 Steph Curry Most Christmas Day Points Pays $550

$50 Luca Doncic Under 48.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists pays $97.50

$50 Montrezl Harrell Under 15.5 Points Pays $93.50

$50 Marc Gasol Over 5.5 Points Pays $95

$50 Dennis Schroder More Points Than Montrezl Harrell $94

After a soft opening to the 2020-2021 season on Tuesday night, we have a packed 13-game slate for Wednesday. With so many games, there are many great player props to bet on. For my favorite player prop bets, I am targeting teams that have made significant changes during the offseason. For Wednesday this means props related to the Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks, and Phoenix Suns.

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 0-2, -2 Units, -100% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Wednesday December 23rd

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers

Pick 1: Joel Embiid (PHI) More Points Than Bradley Beal (WAS) (-104)

Pick 2: Bradley Beal (WAS) Under 26.5 Points (-105)

During the offseason, the Washington Wizards acquired Russell Westbrook from the Houston Rockets. Westbrook is a high-volume shooting point guard who last year had to play with another high-volume shooter in James Harden. This season Westbrook is paired with another high-volume shooter in Bradley Beal. I believe that with Westbrook joining the Wizards, Beal’s usage will go down this season. Additionally, Beal faces a 76ers defense which was 8^th in defensive efficiency last season. That is why I am betting that Bradley Beal will score fewer than 26.5 points on Wednesday night.

While I believe that Beal will have a hard time against the Philadelphia defense, I believe that 76ers Center Joel Embiid will have a big night against the Wizards. Last season Washington allowed a field goal percentage of 60.8% against opposing Centers, the highest of any NBA team. With Embiid’s point total set at 26.5 points, I think the best way to bet on him is to bet that he scores more points than Bradley Beal at nearly even money odds.

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls

Pick 1: Danilo Gallinari Under 2.5 Three-Pointers (-108)

During the offseason, the young Atlanta Hawks splurged on free agents. The Hawks acquired Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Danilo Gallinari. While last season Gallinari was a starter for the Thunder, this season he will be coming off the bench for the Hawks. As a result, I think Gallinari will see a significant decrease in minutes. Additionally, when Gallinari comes off the bench, he will have to compete with Trae Young, John Collins, and Bogdan Bogdanovic for shooting attempts. While Gallinari is an excellent three-point shooter, I do not think that he will receive enough looks in Wednesday night’s game to have three or more three-pointers.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Pick 1: Chris Paul Under 17.5 Points (-115)

Pick 2: Jae Crowder Under 2.5 Three-Pointers (-148)

Last season during the bubble, the Phoenix Suns went a perfect 8-0 and missed the playoffs. As a result of the Suns improbable playoff run, the Suns had a highly active offseason in which they acquired Chris Paul, Jae Crowder, and Langston Galloway. While these acquisitions are noteworthy, I believe that Paul and Crowder will have reduced roles this season. That is because both Booker and Ayton will be the focal point of Suns offense. That is why I am betting that Chris Paul has under 17.5 points and Jae Crowder has under 2.5 three-pointers.

The acquisition of Chris Paul certainly helps the Suns, but he will not be a high-volume scorer in the Suns offense. Last season Paul averaged 17.6 points, and that was in a lineup that did not include a shooter as dominant as Devin Booker. I believe that Paul will average between 15 and 16 points this season and that is why I am betting that he scores under 17.5 points at -115 odds.

Jae Crowder is a good player who makes the Suns a better team. But his three-point total at 2.5 has been set too high for Wednesday night’s game. Last season Crowder averaged only 6.1 three point attempts per game. For Crowder to have three or more three-pointers on a typical night he must hit .50% of his three-pointers. Due to a lack of three-pointer attempts, I believe that Crowder will have fewer than 2.5 three-pointers on Wednesday night.

Wednesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Joel Embiid More Points Than Bradley Beal pays $98.08

$50 Bradley Beal Under 26.5 Points Pays $97.62

$50 Danilo Gallinari Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Pays $96.30

$50 Chris Paul Under 17.5 Points Pays $93.48

$50 Jae Crowder Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Pays $83.78

After a shortened NBA offseason, the 2020-21 season finally starts on Tuesday. There are two nationally televised games on TNT, the first game at 7 PM ET features the new-look Brooklyn Nets against the Golden State Warriors.

The Nets are expected to be a much different team this season with the debut of Kevin Durant. The Warriors who finished with the worst record last season have not played since March. The question for the Warriors is how much better they will be now that Steph Curry is healthy again. From a player prop perspective, I think Steph Curry scores more points than Kevin Durant and that is why I am backing that prop at -143 odds on PointsBet.

While Kevin Durant will be a high usage player for the Nets, I still think Joe Harris will quietly rack up 12-14 points per night. That is why I am betting that he has over 11.5 points at -105 odds on William Hill.

For the 10 PM ET game, the LA Clippers and Lakers face off in a cross-town battle. Both teams are expected to lead the West again and the Lakers are only favored by 2.5 points. While both teams tend to favor load management, I think they will use their star players more than usual on Tuesday night. That is why I believe that Montrezl Harrel will see less playing time than usual as a bench player and as a result he will have under 14.5 points (-110) (DraftKings) and under 6.5 rebounds (-135) (BetMGM).

Additionally, Paul George will see more minutes than usual and that is why I am betting that he has over 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115) (BetMGM).

2020-2021 NBA Regular Season Record: 0-0, 0 Units, 0% ROI 

2020 NBA Playoffs Record: 28-23, +3.88 Units, +7.6% ROI 

Tuesday December 22nd

Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets 

Pick 1: Steph Curry (GSW) More Points Than Kevin Durant (-143)

Pick 2: Joe Harris (BKN) Over 11.5 Points (-105)

Steph Curry missed virtually all the 2019-2020 season with a hand injury. Right before the season was postponed in March, Curry made his return in only one game where he was highly active. In only 27 minutes, Curry managed to score 23 points despite shooting only 6 for 16. What was even more noteworthy about that performance was that Curry attempted 12 three-pointers. This season Curry is going to have the ball all to himself. Klay Thompson is out for the year, and virtually no one else on the Warriors is close to as good as he is.

While I am tempted to bet on Curry having over 27.5 points, that bet might be a little bit risky since Curry has only averaged more than 27.5 points once during his career. One bet that I like a lot is betting that he will score more points than Kevin Durant on PointsBet at -143 odds. The juice may be high, but it is worst the squeeze as Durant must share a ball with the high-usage Kyrie Irving. That is why I think Curry scores more points than Durant.

For the Brooklyn Nets, my favorite player prop is for Joe Harris to score over 11.5 points at only -105 odds on William Hill. During the 2019-20 season, Harris was one of the most consistent Nets scorers and that is why his point totals were frequently set at 12.5 or 13.5 points. Presumably, the addition of Kevin Durant to Brooklyn’s lineup has caused Harris’ point total to decrease to 11.5 points. I think this is an overreaction to Durant’s presence as Harris is not a high usage player.

Harris’ role on the Nets is as a player who can hit an occasion three-pointer or layup. When Durant and Kyrie Irving are likely to be targeted by the Warriors, I think Harris will get many open looks. Additionally, last year, Harris had 12 or more points in 71% of his games. I think that will be the case again this season and that is why I am betting that he scores over 11.5 points.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers 

Pick 1: Montrezl Harrell Under 14.5 Points (-110)

Pick 2: Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

Pick 3: Paul George Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)

Typically, when the Clippers or Lakers play a team, they are heavily favored to win. As a result, both teams will not play their best players for many minutes as they want to keep them healthy for the more consequential games. Tuesday night’s game is different than a typical Clippers or Lakers game as the Lakers are only narrowly favored. I believe that both teams will rely more on their stars than usual and that is why I am betting that Paul George has over 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists at -115 odds.

During the 2019-20 regular season, Paul George averaged 29.6 minutes per game and only 31.1 points, rebounds, and assists. However, during the postseason when the games mattered more, George averaged 36.8 minutes per game. Even though the Lakers have one of the best defenses in the league, I believe that George will be highly active on opening night. That is why he will have at least 31 combined points, rebounds, and assists.

While star players like Paul George will be active on Tuesday night, bench players like Montrezl Harrell will be less active than usual. During the offseason, the Lakers acquired Harrell in free agency. I believe that Harrell will get less usage on the Lakers roster than he did last season when he was on the Clippers. Harrell will have to compete with Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, and Kyle Kuzma for minutes. Additionally, he will have to compete with another high-volume bench shooter in Dennis Schroder for shots. That is why I am betting that he has under 14.5 points (-110) and under 6.5 rebounds (-135).

Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bet Slip:  

$50 Steph Curry More Points Than Kevin Durant pays $85

$50 Joe Harris Over 11.5 Points Pays $97.62

$50 Paul George Over 30.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds Pays $93.48

$50 Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 Rebounds Pays $87.04

$50 Montrezl Harrell Under 14.5 Points Pays $95.50